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MORNING REPORT

Monday, October 23

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

House GOP members line up for the worst job in politics

House Republicans are heading back to the drawing board this week.

The race for the Speakership is once again wide open after the conference voted Friday to drop House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

House Republicans are set to meet behind closed doors for their candidate forum tonight at 6:30 p.m., and will move to an internal nomination election Tuesday at 9 a.m. By the Sunday deadline, nine candidates had thrown their hats in the ring.

They range from House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the highest ranked candidate, who earned a key endorsement from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, (R-Calif.) to Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who received votes for the Speakership from GOP defectors both during McCarthy's 15-ballot Speaker race in January — and during Jordan's three ballots last week.

The Hill's Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell break down what to know about each candidate. Notably, only two of the nine — Emmer and Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) — voted to certify the results of the 2020 election.

Bottom line: None of the candidates this week is a household name known for House experience, legislating or party fundraising. Plus, a surprisingly large field wants to compete for what is clearly a difficult, often thankless — and precarious — job. And the large number of candidates suggests the process is not moving faster, as the House enters its third week without a Speaker and the government funding deadline moves closer.

Republican fears are swirling that Congress could be on the path to jamming through another trillion-dollar omnibus spending package in the months ahead amid stalled progress in both chambers to pass all 12 annual government funding bills.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) on Sunday railed against the House's struggle to elect a Speaker, reiterating what some of his fellow lawmakers have called "embarrassing."

This is probably one of the most embarrassing things I've seen," McCaul said on ABC News's "This Week," noting that he's serving his 10th term in Congress. "Because if we don't have a Speaker of the House, we can't govern. And every day goes by, we're essentially shut down as a government."

Meanwhile, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) warned on "Fox News Sunday" that the House GOP conference poses a "very real danger" of electing a Speaker and then in a few weeks going "back into the same mess," adding that "they need to pick someone to get stability."

▪ The New York Times analysis: After Jordan falls, House Republicans ask who, and what, is next. A band of more mainstream Republicans brought down the hard-line conservative, but the GOP has hardly stemmed the chaos.

▪ The Washington Post analysis: Threats couldn't save Jordan. But Trump-era intimidation has had an impact.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) tore the House GOP apart. He isn't sorry.

THE STALEMATE IN THE HOUSE is forcing the Senate to pick up the legislative slack and take the lead on spending, which includes keeping the government funded. The Senate is also set to work up the White House's $105 billion supplemental package that includes aid for Israel and Ukraine in their battles against Hamas and Russia, respectively. As The Hill's Al Weaver reports, lawmakers are left with a time crunch, as they hope to get the work done before Thanksgiving without much help from across the Capitol complex, where funding legislation normally originates.

Some Republican senators say their party's brand is suffering serious damage because of the failure of House Republicans to elect a new Speaker, and warn that the GOP's image will take a major hit if Congress can't move on must-pass legislation soon. The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports some senators are worried that political spectacle in the House is not only putting the slim House majority at risk but could also undermine their chances of winning back the Senate.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in an interview that aired Sunday on CBS's "Face The Nation" that he hopes the House will settle the Speaker question "pretty quickly" but wouldn't put his backing behind any of the fresh batch of candidates.

"Look, I'm not an expert on the House," McConnell said. "I have my hands full here in the Senate, and we're going to do our job and hope the House can get functional here sometime soon."

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

The leaders of the "Five Eyes" intelligence services — the U.S., the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand — spoke with CBS's "60 Minutes" about China's ongoing global espionage campaign.
McConnell said in an interview that aired Sunday that he sides with President Biden on the matter of bundling Ukraine and Israel aid together — while noting their opposing views on domestic issues.
"Pharmacy deserts" are growing for millions of Americans as big chains — including CVS, Walgreens and RiteAid — close locations across the country. Public health experts say there's already been fallout.

Leading the Day

ADMINISTRATION & MIDDLE EAST

The situation in the Middle East appears worse, not better this morning as fighting between Israel and Hamas jumps boundaries, like a wildfire. Israel said Monday that it launched airstrikes into Gaza and hit 320 targets over the past day, including tunnels used by Hamas, operational command centers used by militants, and military compounds and observation posts. A pending ground war has not begun. Anticipation has raised tensions in the region and Israel's military is battling from the south into Gaza, from the north into Lebanon and in the West Bank, into Syria.

The Associated Press: The war with Hamas threatens to ignite other fronts.

Biden joined his counterparts in Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Italy in a joint statement Sunday urging Israel to protect civilians as it defends itself, and called for Hamas to release all the hostages it was holding. The latest hostage count assembled by Israel is 222.

Iran's foreign minister has warned U.S. and Israeli leaders that the Middle East may spiral out of control if Israel does not immediately stop its military action. The Israel Defense Forces vow to intensify airstrikes against Hamas in Gaza and warned Palestinians still in the north of the territory to flee south.

The Biden administration ordered U.S. non-emergency personnel out of Iraq; the State Department last week advised U.S. citizens not to travel to Iraq.

U.S. MILITARY: A concerned Pentagon is worried about attacks aimed at U.S. troops and opted to move an aircraft carrier and its strike group out of the eastern Mediterranean and closer to the Middle East. Defense officials believe attacks in the region from Iran-backed groups aimed at the U.S. are likely to intensify once Israel moves its forces fully into Gaza.

"What we're seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told ABC's "This Week." "And because of that, we're going to do what's necessary to make sure that our troops are in that position and they were protected and that we have the ability to respond."

Austin also is adding more air defense systems and troops to the Middle East to protect U.S. military forces in the region including a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense) missile battery and additional Patriot air defense battalions (The Hill).

HELP FOR PALESTINIANS: A 20-truck convoy on Saturday carrying humanitarian aid, except for water and fuel, began to crawl through Egypt's border gateway into Gaza. Another 14 truckloads made it through on Sunday.

The U.N. and desperate Palestinians complained that life-saving provisions for 2 million people were arriving too slowly and had yet to be distributed to starving, dying Palestinians. At Egypt's border crossing, Americans seeking to flee Gaza complained they have not been allowed to leave.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged "all parties to keep the Rafah crossing open to enable the continued movement of aid that is imperative to the welfare of the people of Gaza."

The U.N. agency that assists Palestinians was down to three days' worth of fuel in Gaza, said its chief, Philippe Lazzarini, appealing to "all parties" to immediately allow fuel deliveries to the besieged enclave. Israel has insisted that fuel not be included in aid deliveries, according to diplomats. "Without fuel, there will be no water, no functioning hospitals and bakeries," Lazzarini said in a statement. "No fuel will further strangle the children, women and people of Gaza."

Blinken told NBC's "Meet the Press" that Hamas claimed to be prepared to potentially release additional American hostages following the Friday release of U.S.-Israeli citizen Judith Raanan and daughter Natalie Raanan, 17, who were held in Gaza before being released into Israel. They are expected to return home to Evanston, Ill. (Chicago Tribune). Why they were released first is unknown, Blinken said. Other analysts have suggested they might have been healthier than other captives, despite their ordeal.

The Raanans' release resulted from efforts by a team that included the State Department, FBI and intelligence community, working with Qatar as the go-between to Hamas, and with Israel. Ten Americans remain unaccounted for, although not all are presumed to be Hamas hostages (The Washington Post).

The Biden administration asked Israel to pause its ground attack in Gaza to allow efforts to continue to try to secure the release of some of the international captives. The secretary during a CBS "Face the Nation" interview dodged when pressed to explain why the U.S. isn't supporting a temporary ceasefire.

BIDEN, NETANYAHU: On Sunday, President Biden, in Delaware, and Vice President Harris, in Washington, continued to be briefed on developments by Blinken, Austin and other advisers. Biden spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the two "affirmed that there will now be continued flow" of humanitarian supplies into Gaza, the White House said. They "discussed ongoing efforts" to get more hostages out of Gaza as well as the exodus of U.S. citizens and other civilians who want to exit to safety but are stuck at the Rafah gate between Gaza and Egypt. Biden also spoke with Pope Francis about preventing regional escalation of the war, the White House added.

Hamas Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar is being hunted by Israel. Catch up: Some Hamas leaders live in luxury in Qatar.

Where and When

The House meets Tuesday at 11 a.m.

The Senate convenes for a pro forma session at noon.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will return to the White House at 11:45 a.m. from Rehoboth Beach, Del. Biden will participate in an event at 2:15 p.m. with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo focused on 31 designated regional "innovation and technology" hubs nationwide, authorized by the bipartisan CHIPS and Science law Biden signed last year.

The vice president is in Washington and has no public events.

The secretary of state speaks at 11 a.m. at a ceremony for the opening of a new building at the Foreign Service Institute in Arlington, Va. Blinken will host a 7 p.m. dinner at the department in honor of the Foundation for Arts and Preservation in Embassies.

First lady Jill Biden returns this morning from Del., with the president. She will headline at 6 p.m. a political event for the Biden Victory Fund in New York City. She also will do the same at 7 p.m. during a second reelection campaign event in the city.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m.

Zoom In

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

Despite former President Trump's decisive lead over his Republican presidential rivals, the GOP primary field remains large, even though many candidates are struggling with name recognition and polling gains. Leading the race for second place are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and tensions are ramping up between the two as Haley gains traction ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

The two campaigns spent much of last week trading barbs over the possibility of the U.S. receiving refugees from Gaza, with DeSantis accusing Haley of trying to be "politically correct." Haley's campaign has hit back, accusing the DeSantis campaign of "falsely describing" her stance on the issue (The Hill).

The Washington Post: Haley threatens to overtake DeSantis as Trump alternative, sending sparks flying.

GOP presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) said the U.S. must continue to strongly back Israel in its ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza. "We need to be standing shoulder-to-shoulder and back-to-back with no daylight with Israel," Scott told host John Catsimatidis Sunday on "The Cats Roundtable" on WABC 770 AM.

Haley, a former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, is one of the Republican candidates with actual foreign policy experience. The Post and Courier — South Carolina's biggest newspaper — noted the fact in a pointed editorial encouraging every GOP candidate other than Haley to leave the race so she can take Trump on. The paper called her "the one Republican who is clearly ascending — in the polls, in fundraising, in her willingness to challenge the former president."

That includes fellow South Carolinian Scott, who, after months of staying out of the national conversation, is now sputtering below 2 percent in national polls. As Politico reports, even some of his prominent supporters are beginning to acknowledge Scott's presidential campaign has been a disappointment, and that his path forward appears dim. Asked if he hopes Scott can stay in the race until Iowa, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said: "At some point, there's going to have to be consolidation when the outcome is inevitable."

The Post and Courier's editorial board isn't alone; in the early primary state of New Hampshire, voters are sending a clear message: Some of you need to drop out.

"It's still early. There's still a lot on that stage," Laura Williams, a registered Republican from Rochester, N.H., who plans to vote in the primary, told USA Today. "Let some weed themselves out, and those that rise to the top, you know, we'll wait it out and see."

BUT THE REALITY REMAINS that it's Trump's primary to lose, and the current size of the candidate pool virtually guarantees those challenging him will never achieve the polling numbers required to mount a serious offense.

DEMOCRATS ARE SEEING AN EARLY FUNDRAISING EDGE in several key 2024 races, with third-quarter figures giving Biden a boost over his Republican rivals and giving vulnerable Senate Democrats the advantage in closely watched contests just over a year out from Election Day. Biden hauled in slightly more cash than Trump, the Republican frontrunner, while Democratic incumbents outraised Republican challengers in several key Senate races (The Hill).

"The good news for Democrats is that, even in what looks like it's going be a close election, they are holding their own or exceeding the totals, sometimes by pretty big numbers, and putting some pretty big points on the board up there against their Republican rivals," Democratic strategist Jon Reinish told The Hill.

But as The Hill's Niall Stanage writes in The Memo, polling reveals just how vulnerable Biden is roughly a year out from the 2024 election. And Democrats are divided as to what it all means, and how bleak the situation has become.

2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Trump is again bucking the Republican National Committee. On Nov. 8 at 7 p.m., the former president and primary frontrunner will hold a rally in Hialeah, Fla. That's the night of the third GOP presidential debate in nearby Miami.

▪ A judge has rejected three more attempts by Trump and the Colorado GOP to shut down a lawsuit seeking to block him from the 2024 presidential ballot in the state based on the 14th Amendment's "insurrectionist ban."

▪ Abortion is on the ballot in November. The outcome will shape 2024.

▪ Battleground Senate Democrats are weighing a break with Biden on both border security and Iran — just as the two political issues move to the front of the upper chamber's agenda.

▪ California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is trying to reinforce his state's role as a global leader on climate change during a weeklong visit to China that kicks off in Hong Kong today.

▪ Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy wants the U.S. to have an Iron Dome. It's not so simple.

Elsewhere

TRUMP WORLD

Trump's co-defendants in the Georgia election interference case have begun splintering. Fulton County, Ga., District Attorney Fani Willis (D) late last week secured plea deals from Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro, the highest-profile defendants to flip so far in the sprawling racketeering case. Both agreed to testify truthfully against their co-defendants, including Trump. Legal experts told The Hill's Zach Schonfeld they weren't surprised by the deals, arguing they would increase the legal jeopardy facing other defendants and raise the pressure for them to also consider taking plea deals.

"The real import of this plea is the signal it sends to the other defendants," said Chris Mattei, a former federal prosecutor. "Number one, that your time is running out for you to cooperate, because as cooperators come in and plead guilty, the prosecution continues to build its case and may not have a need to cooperate with other individuals."

The duo's plea deals came on the eve of their trial, which was scheduled to begin next week. Powell accepted a plea agreement on Thursday, and Chesebro followed suit one day later. The first group of jurors was already summoned to the courthouse. A trial date for Trump and the 15 others is not yet set but is not expected until at least next year — all while Trump continues his White House bid as the frontrunner in the GOP presidential primary.

▪ The New York Times: In New York, Trump was fined $5,000 for breaking his gag order by leaving an abusive post online. The former president used social media to attack a clerk for the judge in his civil fraud case, and left a copy of the post online for weeks.

▪ The Guardian: Trump fake elector scheme: where do seven states' investigations stand?

Opinion

■ Why Bidenomics isn't popular, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.

■ The symbiotic relationship between Netanyahu and Hamas, by Jonathan D. Strum, opinion contributor, The Hill.

The Closer

And finally … ☄️ Earth passed this weekend through the dust trail of Halley's Comet, something it does annually between September and November, offering a spectacular show. Peak activity was Saturday, the best chance to view meteors in action (Fox10Phoenix).

If you can find the Orion constellation, also known as the hunter, on a clear night or early morning, you might view a parade of meteors, at least officially through Nov. 7 (NewScientist).

Earthlings are able to gaze at Halley's Comet itself every 76 years. Next chance is 2061!