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MORNING REPORT

Friday, October 27

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

The many hurdles Speaker Johnson faces

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces a first big test as he tries to avoid a government shutdown.

Funding runs out Nov. 18, setting up the same obstacle course that helped cost Johnson's predecessor the gavel. As The Hill's Aris Folley reports, House Republicans' little known leader says he wants to prioritize passage of full-year spending bills while proposing a stopgap measure through at least January. But as Republicans gear up for a potential showdown with the Democratic-led Senate over spending, the party's strategy and cohesiveness over the next few weeks will once again be tested.

Johnson met with President Biden and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y) at the White House on Thursday, to discuss the president's request for nearly $106 billion for Israel, Ukraine and other national security needs.

"It was a productive meeting," Johnson told reporters back at the Capitol. "I enjoyed my visit with the president."

Johnson is on track to enjoy a smoother-than-expected path to navigating the GOP's upcoming spending crises, for one key reason: He isn't former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). The next few weeks are unlikely to be smooth sailing, with seven full-year GOP spending bills still waiting for consideration, as well as a massive Israel aid package. But the usual Republica antagonists are signaling that they're willing to go easy on Johnson as he carves his own way out of the party's spending mess.

Several hardliners said they're open to another short-term funding patch, albeit with conservative priorities attached, that would prevent a shutdown next month. One of them is House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), who alongside seven other GOP members ousted McCarthy earlier this month (Politico).

"We're going to keep doing the best we can, but I'm going to try to be realistic about the process," he said about the upcoming spending fight.

The Hill: House Republicans passed their first government funding bill under Johnson Thursday. It's not expected to become law.

BIDEN AND HIS ALLIES ARE TAKING A GOOD COP, BAD COP APPROACH to Johnson, balancing the realities of governing with the belief among Democrats that the new Speaker represents an extreme wing of the Republican Party. Within hours of Johnson's election as Speaker, Biden had phoned the Louisiana Republican to congratulate him and express his desire to work together and find common ground.

At the same time, the Democratic National Committee and the Biden campaign were blasting out clips and quotes of Johnson's past comments, highlighting his support for abortion restrictions, his opposition to same-sex marriage and his role in pushing the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. The dynamic offered a preview of what's to come as Johnson settles in as Speaker, writes The Hill's Brett Samuels, with the government hurtling toward a shutdown and spending fights and with election season on the horizon.

Democrats are capitalizing on Johnson's relative anonymity before his election to the Speakership, filling in the blanks to paint a picture of a social conservative ideologically further to the right than former President Trump, whose election loss Johnson helped contest in 2020.

Johnson took a leading role in spearheading an amicus brief backing a Texas lawsuit contesting the 2020 election results, which he said prompted Trump to call him to express his appreciation, writes The Hill's Rebecca Beitsch. Democrats were quick to highlight Johnson's conservative stances on abortion and gay marriage, as well as his history with Trump. Their efforts are a clear warning signal to centrist Republicans running in districts Biden won in the 2020 election: Democrats will seek to tie those GOP lawmakers to Trump and Johnson.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Thursday that Johnson will not succeed in his new role if he fulfills the "MAGA Mike" nickname given to him by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

If Speaker Johnson repeats the mistakes of Speaker McCarthy, if he tumbles down the MAGA road, it will be inevitable that the House finds itself trapped in even more chaos very soon," Schumer said in a floor speech. "If Speaker Johnson lives up to the label that Congressman Gaetz has given him, MAGA Mike, he will fail as the previous Speakers have."

Politico: Johnson on Sean Hannity: 12 key lines from the new Speaker's interview.
The New York Times: Where Johnson stands on Ukraine, abortion, LGBTQ issues and more.
NBC News: "Raging homophobe": Johnson's views on LGBTQ issues are under fresh scrutiny.
Politico: Some of the loudest hard-line voices on impeachment already see the new Speaker as their ally on voting to remove the president.

MEANWHILE, SENATE DEMOCRATS ARE WORKING WITH Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and a handful of Republicans on a rarely used procedural tactic to defeat Sen. Tommy Tuberville's (R-Ala.) blockade of more than 360 military promotions, in hopes of resolving a stalemate that has consumed the chamber for months. As The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports, Democrats are looking at using a standing order resolution to move the nominees, and sources familiar with internal deliberations said it would likely get introduced next week.

Sinema came up with the idea and started working with colleagues in both parties on it in early September. It would need strong bipartisan support and at least 60 votes to overcome an expected filibuster. Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) said it will "probably" be a heavy lift to find the nine or 10 Republican votes needed to roll Tuberville.

"There's a lot of discussion out there around it," he said. "We'll see where that lands."

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

U.S. military aircraft early Friday carried out airstrikes in eastern Syria against facilities associated with Iranian-backed militant groups believed to be responsible for more than a dozen rocket and drone attacks on American troops in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, Israeli forces backed by fighter jets and drones carried out their second in-and-out ground raid into Gaza in as many days.
A group of New York Republicans moved to force a vote on expelling Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) Thursday, the second effort this year to eject the first-term lawmaker from Congress amid mounting federal charges.
In Maine, authorities issued a murder warrant for the arrest of 40-year-old Robert Card in the attacks in Lewiston at a bowling alley and bar that left 18 people dead and 13 people injured. The suspect, still at large, is wanted on eight counts of murder. Ten victims remain unidentified. As more victims are identified, the counts against Card will likely expand to 18, Maine State Police said.

Leading the Day

© The Associated Press / Hyosub Shin, Atlanta Journal-Constitution | Georgia state Sen. John Kennedy (R) introduced a map of state Senate districts at the Georgia Capitol in 2021. A federal judge on Thursday ordered the state to draw an additional Black-majority congressional district.

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

DRAWN OUT: A federal judge on Thursday ordered Georgia to draw an additional Black-majority congressional district after ruling that some of the state's congressional, state Senate and state House districts were drawn in a racially discriminatory manner. District Judge Steve Jones, in a 516-page opinion, also ordered the state to draw two new Black-majority districts in Georgia's 56-member state Senate and five new Black-majority districts in its 180-member state House.

Several civil rights groups, religious organizations and voters challenged the state's map in 2021 after legislators enacted the plan, arguing it shortchanged Black voters. Jones initially sided with the challengers on a preliminary injunction before the 2022 elections, but held off on ordering a new map at that time because the Supreme Court had paused a similar ruling on Alabama's congressional map (The Associated Press and Roll Call).

DRAWN DOWN: Meanwhile, Biden and Democrats are buffeted by opinion polls and unpredictable international events that make political predictions into next year gauzy at best. Here's a big, blaring siren: The president's approval ratings among Democrats plummeted by double digits during the past month, according to a Gallup survey released Thursday.

As The Hill's Alex Gangitano suggests, Biden may be viewed warily by members of his party following fears of a widening Middle East conflict. But his record-low approval rating may be more closely tied to perceptions of the U.S. economy, particularly inflation, gas prices and interest rates.

2024 ROUNDUP

Long-shot Republican presidential candidate Larry Elder suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, he announced Thursday.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), describing his concern that Trump could win the presidency again if Biden is the nominee, today will file to run in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary. "I think President Biden has done a spectacular job for our country," Phillips told CBS News. "But it's not about the past. This is an election about the future."
Blake Masters, a Republican venture capitalist who lost a bid for Senate in Arizona last year, announced Thursday he's running for a seat in the House.
Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.), 61, said Thursday he will not seek reelection after 18 years in Congress.
The Republican Jewish Coalition will gather in Las Vegas this weekend, drawing GOP leaders and candidates.
Artificial intelligence could change the 2024 elections. One columnist argues for ground rules.

Where and When

The House meets at noon Monday.

The Senate convenes at 3 p.m. Monday to resume consideration of the nomination of Matthew Maddox to be a U.S. District Court judge for the District of Maryland.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will headline a campaign reception at 6 p.m. in Washington. Seventy-five minutes later, he will head to Wilmington, Del., for the weekend.

Vice President Harris is in Washington and has no public events.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet at 8:30 a.m. with Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, at the State Department.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will be in Miami to host a roundtable at 4:30 p.m. with community leaders and students about reproductive health care. He will headline a campaign reception for the Biden Victory Fund at 6:40 p.m. at a private residence.

⚾ The World Series begins at 8:03 p.m. ET between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers. Here's how to watch (Yahoo Sports).

Zoom In

TRUMP WORLD

Special counsel Jack Smith's team accused Trump of threatening former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, ABC News reports, after it reported that Meadows cut a deal for immunity, telling investigators that he advised Trump in 2020 that accounts of election fraud were baseless. On Wednesday, Trump conveyed on social media that he wanted to believe that Meadows wouldn't "lie about the Rigged and Stolen" election to make a deal with the Justice Department "after being hounded like a dog."

The special counsel's office is urging District Judge Tanya Chutkan to reimpose the partial gag order on Trump in his federal election interference case, arguing that the former president continues to try to intimidate witnesses (NPR). Trump was fined $10,000 Wednesday for violating a gag order in a separate lawsuit.

The former president in at least four lengthy social media posts on Thursday ripped Judge Arthur Engoron, who is presiding over his New York fraud trial and has fined him twice for violations of a gag order, as a "tyrannical and unhinged" and "fully biased Trump Hater" who "should be ashamed of himself" for his handling of the case. Engoron has advised the defendant that tougher sanctions are possible for violations of a narrow order order that bars Trump from attacking court staff.

The Associated Press: Trump isn't accustomed to restrictions. That's beginning to test the legal system.
The New York Times: How judges restrain Trump: Gag orders, fines and possible jail time. Courts have a variety of options to stop his attacks on staff members and witnesses. The question is whether any of them will work.

Elsewhere

ECONOMY

Economists do not expect a U.S. recession this year, but the startling growth seen in the third quarter — 4.9 percent gross domestic product — is viewed as likely to cool as consumers opt to give their depleted savings a rest and reconcile spending with a caution that wage increases are ebbing, even if the labor market remains strong.

High inflation and rising interest rates did not dampen economic output from July to September, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. It was the strongest showing since late 2021, and the data defied predictions of a slowdown.

The White House argues that Biden's economic policies, enacted with Congress, are working to stoke investment and growth even amid the high costs of capital, higher energy prices and inflated costs of goods and services. It's a narrative Biden repeats on the campaign trail and hopes to carry forward into 2024.

The cost of credit is one "headwind," National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard acknowledged Thursday. When asked at the White House if she ruled out a recession, Brainard dodged the "R" word and said simply that data suggest "continued economic growth."

"The global economy — there are some soft spots there, so perhaps some headwinds there," she added.

Europe may already be in recession. The European Central Bank held off raising interest rates Thursday for the first time in 15 months as evidence mounts of a deepening economic downturn in Europe. The decision by the central bank to pause after 10 consecutive rate hikes follows data showing a continued decline in inflation and a further slowdown in economic activity in Europe. The prolonged war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East are cautions.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, speaking at a Bloomberg News event Thursday, said "the economy is continuing to show tremendous robustness, and that suggests that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer." She discounted the $2 trillion U.S. deficit as a contributor to rising rates. "It's a reflection of the resilience that people are seeing in the U.S. economy," she said.

The New York Times: Here's why the federal deficit is growing.
Bloomberg News: U.S. weighing added sanctions on Hamas, Yellen said.
Bloomberg News: Yellen sees China progress after a "dangerous" lapse in contact.

HEALTH & WELLBEING

💊 Parents and students are stuck in a web of confusion and frustration after more than a year of a shortage of Adderall, the medication on which many students with ADHD — attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder — rely to maintain concentration. As The Hill's Joseph Choi and Lexi Lonas report, the Food and Drug Administration last year declared a shortage resulting from a disruption at a manufacturing plant. The continued scarcity is attributed to demand rather than supply.

The Washington Post: Adult ADHD may take a toll on the brain. It's associated with a higher risk of dementia.

🏥 The FDA warned on Thursday that preterm infants in hospital settings should not be given live-bacteria probiotic products, such as to prevent necrotizing enterocolitis, because such products pose a disease hazard (and killed one infant in 2023) (CBS News). In response to the government's warning, Abbott Laboratories said it would stop selling such products (Reuters).

Opinion

Biden's efforts to constrain Israel could backfire, by Jason Willick, columnist, The Washington Post.
Is Trump now the "Shadow Speaker" of the House? by Maria Cardona, opinion contributor, The Hill.
Brokenhearted for Lewiston, we will have to heal together, by the Portland Press Herald editorial board.

The Closer

And finally … 👏👏👏 Bravo to this week's Morning Report Quiz winners! We assembled a puzzle featuring splits, struggles, feuds (and worse) ripped from the latest wacky headlines.

Readers who accepted our trivia challenge and went 4/4: Margaret Ramos, Pam Manges, Lori Benso, Sharon Banitt, JA Ramos, John Ciorciari, Ricca Slone, Luther Berg, Jaina Mehta Buck, David Tapley, Don Evans, Stan Wasser, Patrick Kavanagh, Cliff Grulke, Harry Strulovici, Gary Kalian, Lynn Gardner, "Marklp2" and Dick Baznick.

They knew that actors Meryl Streep and Jada Pinkett Smith each disclosed they've been separated but not divorced from their respective (and long-time) spouses (and remained mum about it for years until recently).

Former President Trump reportedly boasted this week that he used his social media megaphone to "kill" the ambitions of Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who was briefly a GOP nominee to be Speaker.

Israel on Tuesday opened an impassioned new front in public diplomatic friction with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

NASA this week revealed an earthbound struggle with a container of asteroid rock and dust, which scientists cannot get open.