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MORNING REPORT

PRESENTED BY PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL

Friday, October 14

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Jan. 6 Committee makes closing argument against Trump

The House panel investigating the events of Jan. 6, 2021, used new and previously known evidence on Thursday to allege that former President Trump pursued a plan to try to overturn the 2020 election knowing he lost his bid for reelection and then encouraged a mob to attack the Capitol in an unlawful bid to cling to power (The Hill).

"The vast weight of evidence presented so far has shown us that the central cause of January 6th was one man, Donald Trump, who many others followed," Vice Chairwoman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said in an opening statement. "None of this would have happened without him. He was personally and substantially involved in all of it."

The nine-member committee voted unanimously to subpoena Trump to appear before the panel, an unlikely event that sparked debate and constitutional analysis (The Hill).

The former president on Thursday lashed out at the panel on social media while close associates said he was tempted to appear if he could testify live.

In its ninth and possibly final public presentation before the committee disbands at the end of this Congress, lawmakers released new details about the Trump administration's ties to white supremacists, Trump's influence over his most fervent supporters and his eagerness to join thousands of backers he knew were armed on a march to the Capitol to block his election defeat.

The damning narrative, presented less than a month before the midterm elections, adds fuel to the Democrats' warnings that Trump and his GOP allies — who continue to push false claims of a "stolen" election — pose a continuing threat to democracy.

He is required to answer for his actions," said committee Chairman Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss). "He is required to answer to those police officers who put their lives and bodies on the line to defend our democracy."

The subpoena is unlikely to bear fruit, as Trump has remained defiant throughout the 16-month investigation by the committee. No subpoena is planned for former Vice President Mike Pence, Thompson confirmed to reporters.

The former president responded to the panel's resolution with a statement on Truth Social, asking: "Why didn't the Unselect Committee ask me to testify months ago?"

"Why did they wait until the very end, the final moments of their last meeting?" he continued. "Because the Committee is a total 'BUST' that has only served to further divide our Country which, by the way, is doing very badly – A laughing stock all over the World?"

But Trump has reportedly told aides, "He favors doing so, so long as he gets to do so live, according to a person familiar with his discussions," The New York Times reports. It remains unclear if the committee would agree.

The Wall Street Journal: The Trump subpoena: what you need to know.
Politico: The Jan. 6 committee plays truth and dare with Trump.
The Washington Post: Insight: Experts see subpoena of Trump as a long long shot.
The New York Times: Analysis: Jan. 6 panel vividly detailed the attack. Accountability is another matter.

Trump had already considered challenging the results of the election in late October, weeks before his defeat, according to members of the committee. He met with Tom Fitton of the conservative group Judicial Watch, who advised Trump to prematurely declare victory based solely on the votes cast on Election Day and assert that early and absentee ballots shouldn't be counted.

Cheney and Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) called Trump's thinking and actions "premeditated."

"It was a plan concocted in advance to convince his supporters that he won," Lofgren said.

© Associated Press / Andrew Harnik | Video from Jan. 6, 2021, of then-Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) responding to the Capitol attack, shown Thursday by the Jan. 6 investigative committee.

The indictment of Trump included some never-before-seen video of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), then-Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), among other leaders in both parties, working their cell phones on Jan. 6 after being evacuated from the Capitol to a secure location.

In footage captured by Alexandra Pelosi, the Speaker's daughter and a documentary filmmaker who had been in the Capitol to record history, lawmakers are seen while seeking National Guard and police assistance from governors in neighboring states and appealing to the acting attorney general for a crackdown on the rioters so they could resume the Electoral College tally that hours later recorded Joe Biden as the president-elect (The New York Times and The Hill).

"Why don't you get the president to tell them to leave the Capitol, Mr. Attorney General, in your law enforcement responsibility?," Schumer barked into a phone as Pelosi joined in at his side. "A public statement that they should all leave."

The video clips, interspersed with time-stamped footage of rioters surging into the Capitol, heightened a sense of the day's violence and uncertainty and reinforced the panel's argument that Trump's hours-long delay in calling for the rioters to stand down had violated the Constitution and his oath of office.

The committee has not decided whether to make criminal referrals to the Department of Justice involving multiple individuals. The department under Attorney General Merrick Garland is conducting its own investigation of the events before, during and after Jan. 6, Cheney said.

The panel will release a final report with recommendations for reforms, most likely in late November or December, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told reporters (Axios).

Senate news on Thursday: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), 82, was taken to a hospital for overnight observation in suburban Virginia near Washington after complaining he felt unwell (The Hill). The eight-term senator last year announced his intention to retire; his seat is to be filled after Election Day.

The Hill: Five takeaways from the likely last Jan. 6 hearing.
Vox: The Jan. 6 committee's Trump subpoena might not succeed — but here's what might.
The Hill: Secret Service messages show they knew the crowd outside the Jan. 6 rally was armed.
The New York Times: Cheney and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) could be giving their closing arguments before leaving Congress.
Bloomberg News: Pelosi said she wanted to punch Trump in angry Jan. 6 video.
The Washington Post: Jan. 6 panel scrutinizes Trump's post-election military orders.
The Hill: Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson: Trump told chief of staff Mark Meadows "this is embarrassing," "I don't want people to know that we lost."
The Hill: Trump's GOP allies blast Jan. 6 panel's issuing of subpoena.
The Washington Post: Supreme Court rejects Trump request on Mar-a-Lago documents.

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Leading the Day

➤ POLITICS

Economists who analyze the U.S. inflation picture talk about "demand destruction." They're not referring to the current political terrain, but that phrase, which describes a need to get Americans to lock up their wallets, could apply to the worries shared among Democratic leaders.

What if voter demand undergoes an economy-driven recalibration this fall that puts Republicans in charge of the House and Senate?

U.S. consumers are complaining about high prices but they are not moderating their spending on services, including air travel, hotels, restaurant meals and entertainment. As long as spending and inflation remain high and as long as wages are too robust to serve as a psychological damper on spending, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising its benchmark interest rates.

Fed watchers expect another 75-basis-point hike in November and perhaps another in December, increasing the odds that the central bank's moves drive the too-hot economy into recession. And with recession comes higher unemployment, which is ominous for American families and bad news for the political party that shoulders the inevitable blame. Some analysts believe the Fed will not cut interest rates until 2024 or 2025.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in September and were up 8.2 percent from a year ago, the government reported on Thursday. Last month offered little evidence that inflationary prices are easing. Excluding food and energy, the core consumer price index accelerated 0.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, meaning the yearly gain was the highest seen since August 1982 (CNBC).

September data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed to stubbornly high prices and shrinking wages, which fell 0.1 percent and 3 percent year over year when adjusted for inflation. Housing costs for many Americans also eat up more of their budgets.

The Hill: Redfin says median asking rents increased by 9 percent nationwide in the past year to $2,002 per month.

Another large jump in food prices appeared in the September data. The food index rose 0.8 percent for the month, the same as in August, and was up 11.2 percent from a year ago. One minor upbeat note: energy prices fell 2.1 percent last month, including a 4.9 percent drop in gasoline. However, pump prices for regular gasoline rose nearly 20 cents per gallon this month, according to AAA.

If midterm contests in a few weeks hinge on pocketbook issues, Republican candidates have plenty of economic issues and anxieties with which to draw contrasts as voters fill in their ballots (The Hill).

The administration's reaction on Thursday to the latest CPI data was a white flag of concession. The talking point from the White House and members of President Biden's Cabinet was that economic conditions may appear shaky in the United States, but they're worse elsewhere in the world. It's not exactly a message of solace or solution for many U.S. families.

"China's economy is slowing. The EU is slowing. The U.K. is facing a number of challenges. The Fed is raising rates. Obviously, there is a possibility that we would have a recession," Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told Bloomberg TV. "But as I see it, a recession is absolutely not inevitable. … This should not be a gloom and doom scenario."

Biden, during a Thursday speech in Los Angeles about public transit, said inflationary pressures are felt most keenly at the gas pump, even though gas prices eased over the summer. "But the price of gas is still too high, and we need to keep working to bring it down," he added. "We also need to make more progress bringing down the prices across the board."

Perhaps the rare bit of good news on Thursday impacts recipients of Social Security benefits. Next year, they'll see a cost-of-living increase of 8.7 percent, the government announced, intended to help them stay afloat on fixed incomes. Here are five things to know about that change, which on average will add $140 per month to Social Security checks (The Hill).

Democratic candidates have tried to appeal to seniors by touting improvements Congress and the White House secured under Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices and cap the annual maximum seniors will be charged for prescription drugs. A majority of Americans do not know about key legislative changes recently enacted by House and Senate Democrats, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey.

The problem for Democrats is that voters can be impatient. The prescription drug negotiations provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act don't go into effect until 2026 and Republicans are sure to note that inflation remains high despite the passage of the measure.

Biden, who is traveling the country trying to help candidates in his party by touting bills enacted on his watch, may not be breaking through with a persuasive narrative and details. He will summarize the Medicare drug changes during remarks today in California and Oregon.

Republican candidates have succeeded in capturing voters' attention with a message about rising crime, arguing that Democrats want to defund the police and trample on gun owners' rights, recent surveys indicate.

Pollsters note that while many Americans say they worry about nuclear risks because of Russia's war with Ukraine and North Korea's missile tests, they also say they're more worried about rising gas prices than nuclear Armageddon (The Hill).

As the saying goes, all politics is local.

Thursday's national average price for regular gasoline was $3.91 per gallon, according to AAA. The highest gas prices are in Western states, many of which are governed by Democrats. The lowest pump prices are in parts of the GOP-dominated South.

Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D) has turned to voting rights issues in an effort to mobilize voters of color in her bid to defeat Gov. Brian Kemp (R) (The Hill). Kemp leads by 5 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. First lady Jill Biden will campaign with Abrams today in Atlanta (The Hill).

The Hill: Five things to watch in the Georgia debate tonight between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Senate challenger Herschel Walker in a suspenseful tossup contest.
The Hill's Niall Stanage: In the battle for Senate control in 2023, three states may matter most on Nov. 8: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. … Note that Biden will host a Philadelphia fundraiser with Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman (D) on Oct. 20 as the race tightens against Republican Mehmet Oz (CNBC).

In Focus / Sharp Takes

➤ ADMINISTRATION

The U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia has deteriorated over differences that include Riyadh's decision with OPEC to cut petroleum production at a time of high prices, which gives Russia a boost, reports The Hill's Alex Gangitano. Asked on Thursday what he has to say to Saudi Arabia, Biden responded, "We're about to talk to you." His elaboration to reporters: "Stay tuned."

On Thursday, the kingdom said in a statement that the Biden administration had earlier asked Saudi Arabia to delay by a month its decision on oil output, which would have gone beyond the U.S. midterm elections. Saudi Arabia declined, and in early October announced its largest supply cut since 2020, or 2 million barrels per day starting in November. That means tighter supplies and higher prices at a time of already high inflation and worries of a global recession, which angered U.S. lawmakers who are now calling for a "reevaluation" of relations with the Saudi kingdom (CNBC).

Based on national security concerns, the Federal Communications Commission plans to ban all sales in the United States of new Huawei and ZTE telecommunications devices, as well as some sales of video surveillance equipment from three other Chinese firms (Axios).

Content from our sponsor: Philip Morris International

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Opinion

Jan. 6 panel proves again Trump must be held accountable, by Timothy L. O'Brien, senior executive editor, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3MycYCc
John Fetterman is a disabled American who needs technology to do his job. So what? by David M. Perry, guest essayist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3MwNHYR

Where and When

The House meets at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14.

The Senate convenes at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.

The president will be in Irvine, Calif., for an economic speech at 3:10 p.m. PDT. He will travel to Portland, Ore., for a grassroots volunteer event with Oregon Democrats at 7:10 p.m. local time. On Saturday, Biden will participate in a campaign reception for Oregon gubernatorial candidate Tina Kotek (D) in Portland. The president will deliver an economic speech in Portland, then fly to Wilmington, Del., where he will remain over the weekend.

Vice President Harris will convene student leaders in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building to discuss reproductive healthcare rights at 2:30 p.m. On Saturday, Harris will fly to Detroit to participate in a Michigan Democratic Party fundraiser with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D). She will join an event highlighting the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. Also on Saturday, Harris will travel to Southfield, Mich., for a voter education event with students. Later she will fly to Los Angeles for the remainder of the weekend.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend an International Monetary Fund breakfast among finance ministers. The secretary will join a meeting of the Eurogroup, made up of finance ministers of eurozone member states. Yellen will hold a 1:30 p.m. press conference, followed by her participation in the IMF development committee meeting. She will hold several bilateral meetings on the margins of the annual gatherings in Washington of the IMF and the World Bank.

The first lady is in Fort Benning, Ga., today and will head to Atlanta in the afternoon to stump for Democrat Abrams for governor (The Hill), then will fly to Florida. On Saturday for National Mammography Day, she will host an event at 11:45 a.m. with breast cancer survivor Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) at the University of Miami Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center in Broward County, Fla.

🚀 The Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum's west wing in Washington reopens today with eight renovated galleries while the east wing continues to receive a similar overhaul. Information HERE. The museum, one of the most popular in the nation's capital, is in the midst of a seven-year renovation through 2025.

Elsewhere

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Chinese President Xi Jinping is poised to secure an unprecedented third term as general secretary, China's senior-most position. China's ruling Communist Party on Sunday will begin its once-in-five-years Congress (Reuters and NPR). The New York Times recaps Xi's rise to power.

Authorities in Beijing on Thursday quickly ended a rare protest against Xi as photos circulating on Twitter displayed two banners that briefly hung on an overpass in the Chinese capital expressing opposition to Xi's zero-COVID-19 policy and authoritarian rule (CNN).

In one of the starkest signs yet that Russia is losing its grip on the territory it claims to have annexed from Ukraine, the Russian-appointed governor of a region in southern Ukraine on Thursday told residents to "take their children and flee" (Reuters).

Russian missile strikes continue to target civilians in Ukraine, raising the death toll to more than three dozen, and adding urgency to President Volodymyr Zelensky's call for more aid. The European Union said Thursday it would train Ukrainian soldiers on EU soil, while the White House said the U.S. is working to deliver two air-defense systems (The New York Times).

A long-term German project to create a European anti-missile shield that would boost protection for much of the continent has attracted written interest from at least 15 countries, mainly from the NATO military alliance, including the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The move follows escalations by Russia in its war on Ukraine, and the Kremlin's veiled threats against Europe and the United States (Bloomberg News).

The New York Times: How two teenagers became the new faces of Iran's protests.
Reuters: South Korea scrambles fighters as North Korean military planes fly close to the border.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

The World Health Organization expects COVID-19 cases to rise in Europe this winter. In some countries, the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been climbing since September, according to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (The Hill). Thursday's projection is important because European coronavirus trends have tended to foreshadow events in the United States.

▪ NPR: COVID-19: What the White House sees coming this winter.

▪ The Hill: The administration extends a COVID-19 public health emergency declaration for 90 days.

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech on Thursday announced their omicron COVID-19 boosters substantially increased protective antibodies against the dominant omicron BA.5 for adults, according to early human data (CNBC).

"These early data suggest that our bivalent vaccine is anticipated to provide better protection against currently circulating variants than the original vaccine and potentially help to curb future surges in cases this winter," Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement.

Information about COVID-19 vaccines and boosters can be found HERE.

The Guardian: "Zero scent": Could negative reviews of smelly candles hint at a COVID-19 surge?
The New York Times: Nearly half of COVID-19 patients haven't fully recovered months later, study finds.

🧠 New research published in "Nature" shows that when you're sick, specific parts of your brain rapidly respond to illness and coordinate how your body fights it. Working in tandem with the body's immune system, your brain helps your body heal (The Washington Post).

"I think it's really an interplay between the two that's fairly intimate and requires a lot of coordination," Anoj Ilanges, a biologist at the Janelia Research Campus, said. "Figuring out this coordination and what it really means is a big question in better understanding our response to infection in general."

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,064,798. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 328, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Closer

And finally … 👏👏👏 Bravo to winners of this week's Morning Report Quiz! We asked about October surprises in U.S. political history and readers delivered.

Here's who Googled or guessed their way into The Hill's championship trivia team: Pam Manges, Jeremy Serwer, Paul Harris, Patrick Kavanagh, Terry Pflaumer, Amanda Fisher, Jon Berck, David Butts, Stan Wasser, Jaina Mehta, Len Jones, Luther Berg, Robert Bradley, Steve James, Ed Shanahan, Jack Barshay, Stephen Delano and Dan Mattoon.

They knew that in the final days of the 2000 presidential election, candidate George W. Bush had to do some damage control regarding his 1976 arrest for DUI.

Former Republican President William Howard Taft's doomed 1912 reelection campaign sustained a blow a week before Election Day when then-Vice President James Sherman died.

While speaking to a donor audience, and with seven weeks left in the 2012 campaign, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was recorded belittling "47 percent" of voters he said would back President Obama.

In the final weeks of the 1968 presidential race, Republican presidential nominee Richard Nixon sought to influence U.S. policy by secretly working to sabotage then-President Johnson's plans to stage Vietnam peace talks.