The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by Instagram — Could Election Day turnout swing Georgia results?

View Online  12:30 REPORT PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM NEWS THIS MORNING  Happy Election Day (again)!: ©  Giphy/Groundhog Day The Senate runoff election between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker is taking place today in Georgia.    Why was a runoff necessary?: A runoff is required under Georgia law if no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold. Warnock won 49.44 percent of the vote, while Walker won 48.49 percent. The remaining portion of the vote went to a Libertarian candidate. Numbers from The New York Times    Why Capitol Hill is watching the results very closely: It will determine whether Democrats will control 50 or 51 Senate seats. 51 seats will make Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer's (D-N.Y.) life much easier. One senator alone (cough, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) or Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.)) can't tank a Democratic bill. Plus, Senate committees are divvied up proportionately, so while Dems would chair committees in a 50-50 Senate, committees would have even representation.     What FiveThirtyEight is saying about the race: "Warnock has a small polling lead in Georgia — But Walker could still win." The latest polling graphics    Tidbit — what happens when all the campaign reporters have one place to be (and that place is easily accessible by airport: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein tweeted a photo of the swarm of reporters in Atlanta last night. Photo  ➤  HERE'S A HELPFUL LIST OF WHAT A 51-49 MAJORITY VS. 50-50 MAJORITY WOULD MEAN FOR DEMS: Including stronger subpoena powers. The full list from CNN's Ali Zaslav and Ted Barrett  ➤  FIVE THINGS TO WATCH ON TUESDAY: "Can Election Day turnout save Walker?" — Early voting has been strong and that likely benefits Warnock. But Election Day turnout could favor Walker.  "Are the polls wrong, again?" — Polls definitely point to a Warnock victory. "How does Trump react?" — If Walker loses, does Trump blame him? Does former President Trump go radio silent?  "Has Walker lost the middle?" — "One data point from Nov. 8 was especially stark: Walker won roughly 200,000 fewer votes than his party colleague in the state, Gov. Brian Kemp … That pointed to a potentially grave problem for Walker — a seeming inability to connect with moderate Republicans and independent voters."   "Does Warnock thank Biden?" — "If Warnock wins, it'll be worth noting whether he name-checks Biden in a victory speech or tries to maintain his independent image."   Full explanations for each, from The Hill's Niall Stanage  ➤  WHAT'S THE WEATHER?: There's a 70 percent chance of rain in Atlanta. How that could affect turnout  It's Tuesday. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  Content from our sponsor: Instagram Explore 30+ Instagram tools helping teens have positive experiences.  Instagram's tools can help parents keep their teens safe on social media, help teens see less sensitive content and help them spend less time on our platform.    Because teens' experiences on Instagram should be positive and supportive.    Explore our tools and set them up today.  🐘 In the GOP To misquote Dory in 'Finding Nemo,' just keep digging. Just keep digging, digging, digging: Former President Trump drew criticism last week for calling for the termination of the Constitution so he could return to the White House as president.     How Trump reacted to the criticism: "On Monday, amid extensive coverage of Trump's comments over the weekend, the former president claimed he did not want to 'terminate' the Constitution, but he stood by his belief that there should be a do-over of the 2020 election or that he should be returned to the White House."     Trump's clarification on Truth Social: "The Fake News is actually trying to convince the American People that I said I wanted to 'terminate' the Constitution. This is simply more DISINFORMATION & LIES, just like RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA, and all of their other HOAXES & SCAMS … if an election is irrefutably fraudulent, it should go to the rightful winner or, at a minimum, be redone. Where open and blatant fraud is involved, there should be no time limit for change!" Trump's full Truth Social posts    This isn't the only controversy Trump has found himself in recently: Think: Trump's pre-Thanksgiving dinner with Ye and white nationalist Nick Fuentes.    How these controversies could play out, both in the GOP and more broadly, via The Hill's Brett Samuels  ➤  'SENATE GOP PANS TRUMP CALL TO TERMINATE CONSTITUTION': From The Hill's Al Weaver  🐥 The latest from Twitter 'Sad desk lunch' is looking pretty nice in comparison: Forbes's Cyrus Farivar and Katharine Schwab report that "Elon Musk's 'extremely hardcore' vision for Twitter seems to have manifested itself in conference-room sleeping quarters reminiscent of sad hotel rooms at the company's recently depopulated headquarters.    Lol — 'one room even has a plant': "On Monday, employees returning to work at the company's San Francisco location were greeted by modest bedrooms featuring unmade mattresses, drab curtains and giant conference-room telepresence monitors — a significant upgrade over the Therm-a-Rest+sleeping bag situation showcased by one Twitter employee in November. One room even has a plant."     A source reacted to the beds: "One source said that no announcement or context was provided to employees, and presumed that the beds are for remaining 'hardcore' staffers to be able to stay overnight at the office. 'It's not a good look,' they said. 'It's yet another unspoken sign of disrespect. There is no discussion. Just like, beds showed up.'"     The full Forbes story In Congress Nancy wants to leave on a high note: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is aiming for a series of political wins during lame duck before she steps down as the Democratic leader.     What's on the agenda?: "Party leaders have packed [the lame-duck session] full of weighty proposals touching on gay rights, immigration reform, COVID-19 aid, Ukraine funding and efforts to strengthen America's election systems."     The Hill's Mike Lillis on what to expect  ➤  TIDBIT — WHAT LAWMAKERS ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT ON TUESDAY:  Punchbowl News's Jake Sherman tweeted that he and his colleague Heather Caygle "have both heard complaints about the food at the White House congressional ball on Monday night. Yes. Members and staff complain about this. Apparently, there wasn't enough and it wasn't as good as the Obama years. Lots of people complaining." 🩺 In other news The flu shot is a magic potion this year: ©  Giphy/NETFLIX Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky said on Monday that this year's flu shots appear to be "a very good match" for the strains of influenza.    In Walensky's words: "We look in real time as to how well we think the influenza match is to what's circulating. And right now, the good news is that it looks like it is a very good match."     Yes, but: Flu shot numbers are down this year, including for seniors, children and pregnant women. The numbers from CNN  ➤  THE BAD NEWS — 'THE FLU SEASON'S NO-GOOD, VERY BAD START':  From Politico's Krista Mahr and Daniel Payne  🦠 Latest with COVID BY THE NUMBERS Cases to date: 98.7 million  Death toll: 1,077,303  Current hospitalizations: 15,142  Shots administered: 655 million  Fully vaccinated: 68.8 percent  CDC data here. Content from our sponsor: Instagram Instagram's daily time limits can help teens spend less time online.  Parents can help teens spend time online more intentionally with Instagram's daily time limits, which lets them say how long their teens can spend on the platform once supervision is set up.    Set up daily time limits and explore 30+ tools that can help teens have a positive experience on Instagram.  🦋 Notable tweets  Bookmarking this!: The Atlantic's Amanda Mull tweeted, "what was the best novel you read this year[?]" Read the responses of suggestions for books to read  Wow, this is stunning: Photographer Dave Lyons tweeted, "Last night with the US Capitol Christmas Tree - with calm winds and clear skies, I returned to take a clear reflection photo. What a view!" Photo — this looks like a movie or book cover How cute!:  The New York Times's Jane Coaston tweeted, "If you live in DC and have small children the Botanical Garden now has model trains and every small child here is riveted." Watch  ⏱ On tap The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in Phoenix on Tuesday. Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C., with no public events.  8:45 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing.  9:25 a.m. Biden left for Arizona.  Noon: A Senate cloture vote on a judicial nomination. Today's full Senate agenda  2 – 4 p.m.: House votes. Today's House agenda  2:20 p.m.: Another Senate cloture vote on a judicial nomination.  3:30 p.m.: Biden tours TSMC in Phoenix.  4:30 p.m.: The Senate holds two judicial confirmation votes.  10:40 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House.  All times Eastern. 📺 What to watch 12:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre spoke with reporters aboard Air Force One. Livestream  2 p.m.: House Democratic Caucus leaders hold a news conference. Livestream  4 p.m.: Biden discusses his economic plan, manufacturing and supply chains during remarks at TSMC. Livestream  Virtual Event Invite Reimagining the Pharma Supply Chain — Tuesday, Dec. 6 at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. AM PT Natural disasters, war, global supply chain weaknesses and unexpected demand spikes all threaten the nation's stockpile of pharmaceuticals. How do we ensure our health care manufacturing practices and supply chains are sustainable and able to reach demand? Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Darren Soto (D-Fla.), NAM's Jay Timmons, Brookings' Marta Wosińska and BIO's John Murphy join The Hill to discuss. RSVP to save your spot. 🍅 In lighter news Today is National Gazpacho Day.  ©  Giphy/Puss In Boots And to leave you smiling, here's a dog who can move and groove to the beat. Stay Engaged Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com and follow along on Twitter and Facebook. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.   Check out other newsletters from The Hill here! Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2022 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.