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MORNING REPORT

Wednesday, May 31

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Debt bill clears hurdle en route to House vote

After passing an important first test, a compromise bill to let the Treasury Department borrow trillions more dollars while Congress applies relatively modest spending restraints will speed to a House vote as early as tonight, where leaders expect it to pass (The Hill). Then it's on to the Senate, where procedures and any member could delay a vote ahead of Monday's projected risk of U.S. default.

I'm confident we'll pass the bill," Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters. After listing what he described as significant spending cuts in the package, he added, "If people are against saving all that money, or work reforms in welfare reform — I can't do anything about that."

The debt-ceiling agreement would suspend the borrowing limit for two years and curb government spending during that time. It would cut spending on domestic priorities favored by Democrats while boosting military spending by about 3 percent. It also would extend limits on food assistance to some low-income beneficiaries to prod them to find jobs and would speed up environmental reviews for energy projects (The Wall Street Journal).

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday projected that the White House-House compromise would reduce spending over a decade by $1.5 trillion (The Hill).

The effort to leverage the nation's borrowing authority to pay past obligations against the government's future spending, which was initiated early this year by House Republicans, resulted in an accord negotiated by McCarthy and President Biden, along with their designated teams. The result, which McCarthy defended as "transformational," was met with objections from his ultra-conservative colleagues, who argue Republicans came up short when it comes to spending cuts.

The Hill: McCarthy's future on the line as he whips debt ceiling deal.

To Biden's left, House Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (Wash.) on Tuesday warned of "harmful impacts" for some low-income individuals and working families if the legislation is enacted. But she demurred on whether even the most liberal critics of House Republicans would risk default, which economists have said could result in recession (The Hill). Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said she will vote against the measure (The Hill).

Late Tuesday, in the first test of GOP intentions, the House Rules Committee voted Tuesday 7 to 6, with two Republicans — Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Chip Roy of Texas, both Freedom Caucus members — joining all four Democrats to vote no.

The Hill: Here are the House Republicans who said they plan to vote against the compromise bill.

The Freedom Caucus, which has 30 to 40 members, is expected to oppose the debt deal on the House floor, squeezing McCarthy to come up with sufficient but perhaps reluctant GOP supporters to add to votes for passage expected from the House minority.

"Not one Republican should vote for this bill," Roy said early Tuesday. "We will continue to fight it today, tomorrow, and no matter what happens, there's going to be a reckoning about what just occurred unless we stop this bill by tomorrow" (The New York Times).

Republican revolt:

The Hill: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said Tuesday that passage of a compromise bill without a GOP majority would "likely trigger an immediate motion" to oust McCarthy.
The Hill: Heritage Action, the advocacy arm of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, opposed the House debt bill and will make it a "key vote."
Fox News: Moderate Republican Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina tweeted she's a "no" on the House bill.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has pledged to move any House-passed debt bill to the floor by the end of the week. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) will be tasked to help steer the accord despite opposition from within his party. The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports that Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and other Senate conservatives who have misgivings about military spending (not enough) and future debt projects (too high) are waiting to see what happens in the House.

Politico: Senate braces for last-minute conservative demands on the debt bill.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told CNN that the "defense number is a problem for me," while Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said he's "struggling" with the measure's Pentagon funding levels. "In terms of purchasing power, it's a substantial cut," Wicker said.

Senate Democrats are fretting over the House bill, but signal grudging support, reports The Hill's Al Weaver.

The Hill: Debt ceiling bill adds stress to annual appropriations bills for the IRS and rattles the foundation of the agency's long-term restructuring.
The Hill and CNBC: A pipeline favored by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) that's included in the House debt ceiling legislation stirs Democratic pushback.
The Hill: White House, GOP each claim victory on student loans in debt limit bill.

The Hill and The New York Times: GOP presidential candidates and potential candidates weighed in with critiques of the debt ceiling bill on Tuesday. The pile-on contrasted with former President Trump, who has been, at least through Tuesday, silent about the measure.
The Hill: Biden will host British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for an official visit at the White House on June 8.
The Salt Lake Tribune: Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) plans to resign his seat in Congress soon because of his wife's unspecified ongoing health issues. Utah's governor will have seven days to set a primary and special election schedule after such an announcement.
NBC News: Former first lady Rosalynn Carter, 95, has been diagnosed with dementia. She resides "happily" in Plains, Ga., with former President Jimmy Carter, 98, who is under hospice care at home.
The Hill: The U.S. "strongly condemns" a Tuesday satellite launch claimed by North Korea.

Leading the Day

➤ POLITICS

After officially entering the 2024 Republican presidential race last week with a stumbling online announcement, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis kicked off the first leg of his campaign in Iowa Tuesday. Trump, the current GOP frontrunner, is set to join him in the state today. Even as Trump has taken an early lead in national polls, Republicans see an opening for DeSantis in the storied, first-in-the-nation caucus state, a traditional proving ground and potential source of early momentum for White House hopefuls, writes The Hill's Max Greenwood.

"There's a lot of openness with Republican caucus-goers in Iowa," an adviser to the group told The Hill last week. "You don't have to take my word for it, you just have to go on the ground and see it."

The Florida governor's two-day trip to the leadoff caucus state will be followed by stops in early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina (ABC News). DeSantis spoke Tuesday night in Des Moines, saying he'll "counterpunch" against the former president, implicitly poking fun at his rival during the event (Des Moines Register and CNN).

In an interview with NewsNation on Tuesday, DeSantis said he will contrast his record with that of the former president while keeping his focus on the incumbent. "I'm going to respond to attacks," he said. "I'm going to counterpunch and I'm going to fight back on it. I'm going to focus my fire on Biden and I think he should do the same. He gives Biden a free pass. I'm focusing on Biden. That's my focus."

Following his public remarks, the governor told a group of reporters that GOP reporters appreciate what Trump delivered as president, "but we also recognize there are a lot of voters that just aren't going to ever vote for him."

Trump, meanwhile, will appear at a breakfast meeting of conservative activists in Urbandale Thursday morning. He will record a Fox News town hall in Clive the same day (Washington Examiner).

Still, with all the attention on the Hawkeye State, it's important to remember that recent history has shown an Iowa win is far from determinative. The last three Republican winners in caucuses without an incumbent did not go on to be the party's nominee. Trump himself overcame a narrow loss in the state in 2016, going on to win the nomination and eventually the presidency. But for candidates other than the former president who are under pressure to show early success, the state remains a key test in 2024 (The Washington Post).

Axios: DeSantis hits Trump from the right on crime.
Politico: "Numbers nobody has ever seen." How the GOP lost Wisconsin.

Black-led organizations are working to stop the spread of legislation reinstating the death penalty, citing the outsized impact the punishment would have on Black incarcerated Americans. As The Hill's Cheyanne M. Daniels reports, the effort is a response to a resurgence of legislation in Republican-controlled states that seek to step up the use of the death penalty. The groups pushing back against these efforts note these bills will disproportionately affect people of color. Since 1976, people of color have accounted for 43 percent of total executions, according to the American Civil Liberties Union. People of color also make up 55 percent of incarcerated people currently awaiting execution.

"The rhetoric around race that has really permeated the last probably two or three years where anything that has to do with Black history or understanding the role of institutional racism is being attacked by certain political factions, and these are states where those factions are stronger," Jamila "Jami" Hodge, executive director of the nonprofit Equal Justice USA, told The Hill.

Teen Vogue: North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton, 25, on youth power and rural organizing.
The Hill: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) tops Manchin by 22 points in a new poll on the Senate race.

2024 watch: A super PAC has emerged to support former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as he makes preparations for a likely campaign kickoff in the next two weeks (The New York Times).

Christie, who ran for president in 2016, views himself as someone who can stand up to and contrast himself with Trump, a former ally (CBS News). According to a new Monmouth University poll, Christie is the most unpopular potential GOP presidential candidate. While Trump leads DeSantis by 24 percentage points in an unprompted survey of first-choice candidates, Christie registers at zero percent nationally and is the only candidate to have a net-negative approval rating (New Jersey Globe).

"If your main argument to Republican voters is that Trump wouldn't be the party's strongest nominee, you've got a heck of a challenge ahead of you," said Patrick Murray, the Monmouth University Polling Institute director.

In Focus / Sharp Takes

➤ INTERNATIONAL

From a war to a bigger war, or to peace? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says timing is set for the long-promoted counteroffensive against Russia, which initially was expected by spring. Earlier this month, he said Ukraine needed more time to begin its campaign as it awaited more aid from allies, including armored vehicles (BBC). Ukraine's goals: try to hold down its casualties and show decisive success against Russian forces, which fortified defenses along 900 miles of shared border. Ukraine "understood that [it] needed to be successful" but conceded early this month that the counteroffensive would not be a "silver bullet" in a long war, a Ukrainian official told the BBC.

Even without a clear start date, reporting increasingly points to escalations in attacks by Ukraine, and officials are fueling speculation about when the much-anticipated counteroffensive may begin. "The time has come to take back what is ours," General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander in chief of Ukraine's armed forces, wrote in a Saturday Telegram post (USA Today). A Ukrainian presidential adviser told the Guardian Saturday that preliminary operations have already begun to pave the way for the counteroffensive, calling it "a complicated process, which is not a matter of one day or a certain date or a certain hour."

"It's an ongoing process of de-occupation, and certain processes are already happening, like destroying supply lines or blowing up depots behind the lines," Mykhailo Podolyak said, adding that "the intensity is increasing, but it will take quite a long period of time," as the counteroffensive gathers momentum.

Ukrainian officers on the ground are also gearing up for the counteroffensive, even as their cities experience barrages of Russian missile and drone strikes. Members of the Offensive Guard have remained unfazed, simulating scenarios Kyiv may use when the day comes (CNN). First, there was a mysterious drone strike on the Kremlin, then an "invasion" that prompted Moscow to divert front-line troops to border regions. Late last week, Ukraine launched a marine drone attack on a Russian spy ship in the Black Sea (Financial Times). And on Tuesday, as many as two dozen aerial drones attacked residential neighborhoods in Moscow — including near President Vladimir Putin's residence — which the Kremlin blamed on Kyiv (The Wall Street Journal).

The attacks on Russian soil are bringing the war much closer to home, reports The Hill's Brad Dress, and the incursions are further dividing those involved in Putin's war effort, with some Russian military analysts and allied leaders clamoring in anger at what they perceive is a failure to stop the violence.

All the buildup, and reporting in international media, has inflated expectations of the eventual attacks, leading some Ukrainian officials to say in early May that they feared the operation would not live up to its hype (The Washington Post and Bloomberg News). Ukraine would need a massive onslaught of force to drive Russia to its knees and win back the territory it has lost since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The sort of peace plan floated by China and a number of African nations, seems increasingly unlikely (Al Jazeera and Bloomberg News). The time for mediation efforts in the war has passed, Ukrainian Chief Diplomatic adviser Ihor Zhovkva told Reuters, saying Ukraine had no interest in a cease-fire that locks in Russian territorial gains, and wants the implementation of its peace plan, which seeks the full withdrawal of Russian troops.

Kyiv and its allies are planning a summit of global leaders that would exclude Russia, aimed at garnering support for Ukraine's terms for ending the war, The Wall Street Journal reports, and plans for a gathering, while preliminary, have strong support from European leaders who are lobbying for participation by countries that have sided with Russia or declined to take a position on the war.

Bar a formal peace process, Ukraine will have to demonstrate to NATO — which it is bidding to join — and other Western allies that continued aid and military equipment are necessary, not only for Kyiv, but for the whole region's stability (Politico and NPR), while assuaging fears that more military power, including American-made F-16 fighter jets, could lead to further global escalations with Russia (The Associated Press).

Time magazine: What to expect from the counteroffensive.
France 24: Ukraine prepares its counteroffensive on the front line near Bakhmut.
The Washington Post opinion: Why preparations for Ukraine's counteroffensive have taken so long.

Opinion

Why the fear of change will drive the GOP presidential primary, by Paul Waldman, columnist, The Washington Post.
Evangelicals should think twice about supporting Trump in 2024, by Merrill Matthews, opinion contributor, The Hill.

Where and When

📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist's insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will meet at 2 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will meet in the Roosevelt Room at noon with leaders of the federal emergency preparedness and response team for a briefing on extreme weather preparedness. The president will depart the White House for Colorado Springs, Colo., where he will remain overnight.

The first lady is in Amman, Jordan, where she will attend a royal wedding (Hola).

Vice President Harris will be in Washington and has no public events.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Luleå, Sweden, where he visited a business innovation exhibit at the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council ministerial meeting this morning before beginning the group's discussion. The secretary joined a working lunch at the ministerial at noon, followed by participation this afternoon local time at a roundtable in Sweden. Blinken will join a press conference at 3:15 p.m. local time among council co-chairs. The secretary will travel from Sweden to Oslo, Norway, where he will meet tonight with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store before attending a dinner for NATO foreign ministers hosted by Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt. The secretary will be in Finland at the end of the week.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m. and will include John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications.

Elsewhere

➤ ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

🚨 In a span of weeks, human learning about machine learning leaped from worries about students cheating on research papers, to concerns about disinformation and deep fakes spreading globally on the internet — to stone-cold fear about extinction of the species. Who says biological neural processing is too slow?

The Center for AI Safety, which says it was created to conduct research aimed at improving safety with artificial intelligence, issued a statement and open letter Tuesday with signatures from leading scientists accompanying a dramatic message: "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war."

An alarm from experts worried about runaway AI and its potential to wipe out mankind is compared to nuclear annihilation and deadly global contagion. But it clashes with initial corporate investor enthusiasm that AI will be a multi-trillion-dollar behemoth and tech's rosy cheerleading that machine learning would better the world. That was then. This is now: "In the past six months, following some surprising and unnerving leaps in the performance of AI algorithms, the issue has become a lot more widely and seriously discussed" (Wired).

"The Daily" podcast from The New York Times on Tuesday explained why the godfather of AI has some regrets. Geoffrey Hinton, who helped invent the technology behind ChatGPT, is worried we are racing toward real danger "for our species" (40 minutes).

"The best hope is that you take the leading scientists and you get them to think about, 'Are we going to be able to control this stuff, and if so, how?' That's what the leading minds should be working on and that's why I'm doing this podcast," Hinton told the Times from his home in Canada. (His signature is the first in line on the statement released by the Center for AI Safety.)

The New York Times: For half a century, Hinton nurtured the technology at the heart of chatbots like ChatGPT. Then he quit Google and warned that generative artificial intelligence will cause serious harm.
The New York Times and PBS NewsHour: Here's how AI could be weaponized to spread disinformation.
CBS "60 Minutes": Is artificial intelligence advancing too quickly? What AI leaders at Google say. "It is so clear to me, we will have some form of very capable intelligence that can do amazing things. And we need to adapt as a society for it," said Google CEO Sundar Pichai. "It's not for a company to decide."
ABC News: Artificial intelligence threatens extinction, experts say in new warning.

The Closer

And finally … 🧀 She's the big cheese: 19-year-old Delaney Irving, from Nanaimo, British Columbia, won the women's Cooper's Hill Cheese-Rolling and Wake race Monday, near Gloucester, southwest England — after being knocked unconscious.

The rules of the competition are simple: Be the fastest person to chase a 7-pound wheel of Double Gloucester cheese down a 200-yard steep hill, as hundreds of onlookers cheer from the sidelines. Sounds straightforward, but Irving briefly lost consciousness during her hilly descent.

"I just remember hitting my head, and now I have the cheese," Irving told The Associated Press after the race.

On the men's side, Matt Crolla, 28, from Manchester, won the first of several races. Asked how he had prepared, he told reporters: "I don't think you can train for it, can you? It's just being an idiot."

The event has been held at Cooper's Hill since at least 1826, when the cheese rolling was mentioned in a message to the town crier, USA Today reports.