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MORNING REPORT

PRESENTED BY

Monday, October 9

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

This week's focus: Israel and race for Speaker

Fighting in Israel and Gaza following the Saturday surprise attack by Hamas militants forced world leaders to prepare for a Middle East war as the death toll climbs and Israeli forces continue to pound Hamas targets, including houses and apartment buildings, in Gaza.

U.S. leaders and political candidates are backing Israel during a crisis that could scramble regional and global imperatives, the U.S. presidential contest and the pursuit this week in Washington of a House Speaker amid the void in U.S. governance and divisions in the Republican Party.

President Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a call on Sunday that Israel will quickly receive U.S. military assistance. Biden, responding to specific requests from the prime minister, said Israel's strikes in Gaza were defensive while the Hamas attacks were "terrorism" and "brutal atrocities."

Netanyahu and Israeli officials formally declared war as the United States deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the eastern Mediterranean to "bolster regional deterrence efforts." The U.S. Air Force will also deploy a significant contingent, which means thousands of military personnel are being sent to the region. Administration officials said Sunday they anticipate that Israeli ground forces will move into Gaza within 24 to 48 hours, according to The Washington Post.

THE VIOLENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST renewed Republican domestic attacks on what some presidential challengers called Biden's "appeasement" policies abroad. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pushed back on Sunday, lamenting the critiques as "playing politics when so many lives have been lost and Israel remains under attack."

Amid calls from the United Nations, the White House, China, Jordan and many world capitals for de-escalation of the violence, U.S. lawmakers on Sunday lobbied GOP colleagues to resolve their leadership struggle and select a Speaker so that Congress can aid Israel, if needed.

The crisis in Israel placed a blinding new spotlight on the risks of GOP infighting over leadership, power and personalities, which this year threatened a U.S. default, a government shutdown and now halts legislative action until the second GOP Speaker since January is chosen. Lawmakers return to Washington Tuesday.

"Given the situation in the Middle East with one of our closest allies in the world, it is critical that we bring this to a close expeditiously," Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said during an interview with CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) made a similar point to CNN.

We have to get a Speaker elected this week so we can get things on the floor, like replenishing the [rocket defense system] Iron Dome [and] get a … bipartisan resolution condemning Hamas for what they have done to Israel," McCaul said.

New York Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman, who was in Israel for a family event when the Hamas attacks began Saturday, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, "I hope Republicans can get their House in order so we can pass emergency legislation to assist Israel in defending herself."

➤ 3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

United Auto Workers members at Volvo Group-owned Mack Trucks on Sunday night rejected a tentative contract agreement and voted to go on strike this morning, affecting plants in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Florida. Mack president Stephen Roy said in a statement he was "surprised and disappointed." Separately on Friday, the UAW said it scored concessions in negotiations with General Motors as analysts described GM the loser in the union's targeted strikes of the big three automakers thus far. There is a big-sky economic debate emerging: Have employers been miscalculating amid U.S. labor strikes and union campaigns to organize workers?
▪ Pro-Ukraine senators from both parties, unnerved by the upheaval in the House, say they want to move quickly to pass a yearlong aid package that far exceeds the amount of aid requested by Biden in August and would last through the 2024 election.
▪ In Afghanistan, two magnitude 6.3 powerful earthquakes followed by several strong aftershocks Saturday killed more than 2,000 people and injured at least that many.

Leading the Day

➤ INTERNATIONAL

The Hamas attacks raised many questions, including how Israeli and other international intelligence agencies were caught so dramatically flat-footed by coordinated assaults from the air, sea and land. Israel conceded today that it still has not closed breaches in a border fence near the Gaza Strip. Complicating the geopolitical repercussions were reports that Iran helped plan the Hamas offensive over several weeks, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed Islamist group (The Wall Street Journal).

Reuters: How Hamas duped Israel as it planned its devastating attack for two years.

IRAN'S ROLE: U.S. officials — sensitive to domestic criticism that Biden last month approved unfreezing $6 billion of Iran's foreign-banked assets in exchange for the release of U.S. hostages — did not deny that Iran might have played a role. Blinken told CNN, "We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship."

"We don't have any information at this time to corroborate this account," a U.S. official added.

▪ The New York Times: Biden's hopes for the Middle East are imperiled with the eruption of violence.

▪ The Times of Israel and The New York Times: Between 130 and 150 hostages, civilian and military, are being held in Gaza, according to reports. Blinken conceded some could be American citizens. It has been more than 17 years since an Israeli soldier was taken as a prisoner of war in an assault on Israeli territory.

▪ Al Jazeera: Israel and the Lebanese armed militant group Hezbollah exchanged fire on Sunday, raising regional tensions.

DEATH TOLL: The Israeli foreign ministry said Sunday night that at least 700 Israelis were killed during the weekend attacks. An additional 2,243 were injured, according to the health ministry. The assault on Israel launched by Palestinian militants on Saturday — the broadest invasion in 50 years — prompted Israel to respond with heavy strikes on Gazan cities, continuing today. At least 493 Palestinians have been killed, including 78 children, and 2,751 others have been wounded, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza, as reported today (The New York Times).

Blinken told CBS on Sunday that the administration was working to verify reports, later confirmed, that Americans were among those killed during the Hamas attacks near the Gaza border with Israel. CNN, citing an internal U.S. government memo, later reported that at least three Americans were killed.

"We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and to the families of all those affected, and wish those injured a speedy recovery," a White House National Security Council spokesperson said.

➤ CONGRESS

© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Republican Reps. Jim Jordan (Ohio) and Steve Scalise (La.), pictured last year, are candidates in the House GOP conference to succeed ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

COMPLICATING MATTERS: The House's leadership vacuum is factoring into the U.S.'s response to the crisis in Israel, as lawmakers try to assess what powers temporary Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) is afforded — and if he can participate in intelligence briefings. McHenry has limited abilities in his role as Speaker pro tempore, which he took on following last week's historic vote ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), but House Republicans could vote to amend the chamber's rules and give McHenry more power.

Committees can still continue to operate, but with his limited power, McHenry cannot bring bills or even nonbinding resolutions to the floor. He is mostly responsible for overseeing the election of a new Speaker, which means recessing, adjourning or recognizing nominations on the floor. Members of Congress are working to determine if McHenry will be included in the "Gang of Eight" briefings with other heads of both chambers and parties. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told CNN in an interview Sunday morning that the Gang of Eight had not yet been briefed on the situation because leaders "have been scattered throughout the country." Without a sitting House speaker, administration officials are unclear about what can be accomplished as the White House prepares to send aid and military support (The Hill and CNN).

"It wasn't my idea to oust the Speaker; I thought it was dangerous," McCaul told CNN's "State of the Union." "You know, I look at the world and all of the threats that are out there, and what kind of message are we sending to our adversaries when we can't govern? When we're dysfunctional? We don't even have a Speaker of the House."

CONGRESSIONAL DIPLOMACY: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) — who is leading a bipartisan congressional delegation to China — called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to support Israel after the deadly attacks by Hamas today, adding he was "disappointed" that Beijing showed "no sympathy" for the country over the weekend (Reuters).

▪ NBC News: Experts say McHenry is effectively powerless on Israel matters.

▪ The New York Times: Several Republicans fumed at the rebels in their ranks for rendering Congress impotent at a time when legislation and additional funding could be needed to help Israel.

▪ The Hill: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), like Congressman Golden, also was in Israel during the Hamas airstrikes and each departed the country on Sunday.

▪ Politico: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) is not relenting from his monthslong blockade of military nominations over the Biden administration's abortion policy — even as the Pentagon prepares to back Israel at war.

House Republicans are expected to meet starting Tuesday to discuss candidates for Speaker — seen as a race between Jim Jordan (Ohio) and Steve Scalise (La.). It's unclear whether either can clear a 218-vote hurdle for the gavel.

The House was already in uncharted waters after it removed its Speaker for the first time ever last week, and now, House Republicans are navigating more surprise waves as they race to select a replacement. The normally relationship-based and internal process is getting a swath of outside attention — which isn't necessarily pleasing GOP members. Plans for a televised Fox News forum with the candidates were quickly shuttered after backlash. Even Trump has weighed in with a preferred pick — Jordan — after showing openness to being a Speaker candidate himself.

It may be the most competitive race for a party's top spot the House has seen in decades, The Hill's Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell report, a new dynamic that members must grapple with on a severely condensed timeline, with pressure to restore normal business as soon as possible.

▪ The Hill: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) assessed Sunday that it would be "absolutely" worth it for him to lose his seat in Congress for spearheading McCarthy's removal.

▪ The Washington Post analysis: The Jim Jordan-ization of the GOP.

▪ The Hill: The turmoil over the future leadership of the House GOP conference is casting uncertainty about the Republican Party's ability to govern, possibly throwing a wrench into the party's 2024 chances.

▪ The Hill: Trump's involvement in the Speaker's race carries risks.

A large majority (71 percent) of Americans in a new poll say they want the next Republican Speaker to work with Democrats. A majority of GOP respondents (58 percent) said the same, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll. But there are complicated public opinion crosswinds facing GOP lawmakers: 72 percent of the Republicans in the survey said they want the Speaker to impeach Biden. Republican respondents split (53 percent approval versus 47 percent disapproval) when asked their opinion about last week's House vote to remove the gavel from McCarthy.

Where and When

The House convenes at 11 a.m. on Tuesday.

The Senate meets Tuesday at noon for a pro forma session.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m.

Vice President Harris is in Washington and has no public schedule.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is traveling to Morocco, where on Tuesday she will participate in annual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. She will meet with officials through Saturday.

First lady Jill Biden will be in Wisconsin this week to focus on tribal nations and separately, on the administration's policies behind cancer treatments and support programs for patients. In Green Bay at 7 p.m., she will join an NFL watch party event hosted by the American Cancer Society.

Content from our sponsor: Citi

Zoom in

➤ POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

Virginia is serving as a trial balloon for both parties' political messaging ahead of next year's general election, writes The Hill's Julia Manchester, as abortion and crime take center stage in the state's legislative races. Democratic state house and senate candidates have largely zeroed in on abortion as a key messaging tactic, painting their Republican opponents as extreme on the issue. Republicans, on the other hand, have hit Democrats for being too lax on crime.

"It really is the Democratic message vs. the Republican message and seeing which of those is resonating more," Abhi Rahman, communications director at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a group that works to elect Democrats in state legislature races, told The Hill.

Politico: Should you believe the polls or the special elections? There's a third way: Virginia.

Democrats are seeing victories across the country in special elections and ballot measures, giving the party hope going into 2024. As The Hill's Filip Timotija reports, these off-year elections, which often go under the radar but are seen as bellwethers for the current political environment, have renewed optimism within the party's ranks as Biden looks set for a rematch against Trump.

"I will say it adds weight to the fact that we are making the right arguments that are resonating with very broad swathes of the American people," said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. "I think it certainly bodes well for the battle for the House, I think for certain Senate races, governor's races, state, legislative, etc."

GOLDEN STATE LOSING ITS CLOUT? The recent death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and McCarthy's loss of the Speakership has deprived California of legislative and political might, The Hill's Al Weaver reports, leaving the state looking to up-and-comers in Congress to represent it.

While McCarthy has denied he'll step down from his California seat, his loss of power and Feinstein's death, coupled with Rep. Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) own exit from the Speakership late last year, has shaken up the state — and put it in an unfamiliar position. It has long relied on top members to bring dollars and projects home; Feinstein served in the Senate from 1992 until her death last month. "It is impossible to overstate the impact she's had on California," Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) told reporters Wednesday, adding that Feinstein was "the one that we turned to for leadership and for comfort, whether it was in times of conflict or crisis" back home. Now, a slate of congressional newcomers — many vying for Feinstein's seat in 2024 — are competing to fill big shoes.

IN NEW YORK CITY, Mayor Eric Adams (D) is an outspoken critic of the White House on immigration, a headache for Biden, The Hill's Julia Mueller reports. Adams complains about immigration policy as his office reports thousands of migrants surging into the nation's most populous city each month — and he's repeatedly called on the Biden administration to help deal with the influx.

➤ 2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is facing a possible primary threat from former state Rep. Katie Arrington (R) after she voted for McCarthy's ouster last week.

▪ As House Republicans resume trying to sort out their leadership challenges this week, the National Republican Congressional Committee canceled a planned Thursday gathering in Dallas, at which McCarthy was to be the main draw.

▪ Democratic presidential primary candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans a noon speech today in front of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. He's expected to announce a party switch to independent. According to current polling, he could start out as one of the strongest third-party candidates this century.

▪ How RFK Jr.'s deep sense of persecution and a taste for conspiracy have coalesced into a campaign about censorship that matters to almost no Democratic voters.

▪ With Democrats worried that a third-party bid could throw a tight race to Trump, Biden's top aides have blessed a broad offensive to starve such efforts of cash and ballot access.

▪ Iowa Democrats are officially conceding the position they have held in every presidential nominating contest since 1972: going first. South Carolina will now hold the first party-sanctioned primary next year.

Elsewhere

A New York state appellate judge temporarily blocked the revocation of the Trump Organization's state business certificates on Friday, after a trial judge found Trump and his company liable for fraud last week. Though Associate Justice Peter Moulton's ruling calls for at least a temporary pause in the start of a receivership process and the dissolution of the Trump Organization and related entities, he denied Trump's emergency request to halt his ongoing civil trial on other fraud claims (The Hill and The Washington Post).

▪ The Hill: Former Trump lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen predicted Trump's business empire cannot escape the fraud ramifications, to be determined by a judge.

▪ The Associated Press: Trump's penthouse value estimate was boosted by millions due to his fame, executives testified in his fraud trial.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: For Trump, the New York fraud trial is personal.

As Trump faces a civil trial in New York, as well as federal and state criminal indictments across the country, focus is shifting back to the 34 felony counts of falsifying business records Trump faces over reimbursements for paying his then-fixer, Cohen, after Cohen made hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels and others in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Trump's lawyers laid out their hush money case defense strategy in court filings last week, urging a New York judge to dismiss the indictment outright before the case even gets to trial.

The new filings encapsulate Trump's attempt to get the case tossed ahead of trial, though a ruling is not expected until early next year. The Hill's Zach Schonfeld explains Trump's five biggest legal arguments in fighting the indictment.

Opinion

■ If Republican "moderates" ever acted, plenty could get done, by Jennifer Rubin, columnist, The Washington Post.

■ Netanyahu should take his own advice to avoid wider war, by Marc Champion, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.

The Closer

And finally … From Alcatraz Island to a park in New York City, Native American people will celebrate their centuries-long history of resilience today with ceremonies, dances and speeches, reports Federal Times. Indigenous People's Day is typically observed on the second Monday in October, the same day as Columbus Day, a federal holiday established decades ago to recognize explorer Christopher Columbus's sighting in 1492 of what came to be known as the Americas.

The events across the U.S. come two years after Biden first officially commemorated Indigenous Peoples Day. An increasing number of states and cities have also recognized it — pivoting from a day long rooted in the celebration of a European explorer to one focused on the people whose lives and culture were forever changed by colonialism.