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MORNING REPORT

PRESENTED BY

Monday, October 16

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Will President Biden go to Israel?

The immensity of the ongoing tragedy in Israel and Gaza is told with rising statistics and explained in emotionally vivid descriptions not often woven into remarks by seasoned Western diplomats.

"No country can accept the proposition that terrorists can come in, slaughter – and I use the word very advisedly – slaughter thousands of its citizens, riddling babies with bullets, burning people alive, decapitating soldiers, executing children in front of their parents, executing parents in front of their children – no country can tolerate this," Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Al-Arabiya, speaking during a Sunday interview about the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas against Israelis.

The U.S. public message to Israel Sunday was "restraint." How that can be achieved has not been spelled out. Who rules Gaza after the terrorist group Hamas is "eradicated," as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows, is unclear. Fears of a widening Middle East war, with Iran as a possible participant, and the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe are among warnings from the United Nations, the White House, Pope Francis and many others.

ISRAEL'S EXPECTED GROUND ASSAULT, on top of air strikes in Gaza, has not begun. One million Palestinians, ordered last week to flee northern Gaza within an impossibly tight, 24-hour Israeli deadline for evacuation experienced multiple extensions of that order over the weekend amid mass confusion to locate provisions, transportation and a place to shelter. Israel, with U.S. encouragement, turned water back on to southern parts of Gaza.

Israeli media were first to report that Netanyahu invited Biden during a Saturday conversation to visit Israel, perhaps as soon as this week. He's considering it. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to arrive in Israel Tuesday. Jordan's King Abdullah II, using shuttle diplomacy to try to prevent a widening war, was in London to meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and is in Rome where he will meet with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to discuss the Middle East situation.

The Palestinian Embassy said that today foreign national Palestinians will be able to cross the border into Egypt starting at 9 a.m. local time (2 a.m. ET). Humanitarian aid will also begin crossing into Gaza.

The Biden administration denies it is guiding or shaping Israel's military aims, but President Biden has been working the phones, including a Sunday conversation with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Biden also conferred with his advisers and sent Blinken, who was in Egypt Sunday and met with leaders in six Arab nations over the weekend, back to Israel today.

The president told CBS's "60 Minutes" during a Friday interview with journalist Scott Pelley that he believes Israeli occupation of Gaza would be "a big mistake," but he said he concurs with Israel that the total elimination of Hamas is required. "But there needs to be a Palestinian Authority. There needs to be a path to a Palestinian state," Biden said.

At least 30 Americans have been killed in Israel and Gaza, and another 13 are missing. Administration officials repeated Sunday that they cannot detail all that's being done to try to free U.S. hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, or even specify their number, while emphasizing that the hostage situation is top-of-mind for Biden. The president spoke during a conference call for an hour with some of the affected families last week.

The U.S. also is trying to help Americans living in Gaza who are eager to leave. The State Department last week ordered U.S. personnel out of the region and issued a warning to U.S. travelers not to enter Gaza and to reconsider travel to Israel and the West Bank.

THE DEAD: More than 2,750 people have been killed in Gaza and 9,200 have been injured, according to information today. In Israel, 1,400 people have been killed and 3,500 have been wounded. With the onset of any ground war, the number of Israeli military casualties and Palestinian civilian casualties will rise amid a campaign aimed at Hamas leaders and fighters. Gaza, home to a dense population exceeding 2 million people, is roughly 5 miles wide and 25 miles long.

Senators are back in the nation's capital today and GOP members appear decidedly more talkative about global unrest than the upheaval as House Republicans say they will vote Tuesday on a Speaker.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned during an NBC "Meet the Press" interview Sunday that if Iran and Hezbollah initiate war with Israel, the U.S. will retaliate (The Hill). "I will introduce a resolution in the United States Senate to allow military action by the United States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the oil business. Iran, if you escalate this war, we're coming for you," he said.

Administration officials said Sunday the U.S. has no plans to put boots on the ground in Gaza. The Pentagon is sending a second aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean as a deterrent to potential involvement by Iran.

The Hill: A bipartisan Senate delegation in Tel Aviv, led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), on Sunday said U.S. involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict is in "the world's interest."

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas said he will vote against Biden's nominee to be U.S. ambassador to Israel. Jacob "Jack" Lew is expected to appear Wednesday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for an expedited confirmation hearing (The Hill). Cotton called Lew, a former Treasury secretary, former State Department deputy, former budget director and former White House chief of staff (who is also Jewish), an "Iran sympathizer" who "lied to Congress."

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

The FBI has seen an increase in reported threats in the wake of attacks in Israel. … Near Chicago on Saturday, a 71-year-old landlord armed with a military-style knife targeted and stabbed a 6-year-old Muslim boy 26 times, killing him, and wounded his mother. The assailant, now under Justice Department investigation for a hate crime related to the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict, faces extensive charges, including first degree murder, according to a sheriff's spokesman.
Ukraine is working to evacuate 260 of its citizens from Israel and Gaza, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his Sunday night address.
Cuban officials want to open wide-ranging negotiations with the Biden administration amid persistent economic pain and growing emigration from the island.

Leading the Day

The House will try again to elect a Speaker this week. A vote is scheduled on Tuesday at noon, and House Republicans are expected to nominate Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to the post. But will he have the votes?

The chamber has been at a standstill since former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) ouster. While an interim speaker pro tempore, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), has been named, Republicans have been unable to agree on a replacement for McCarthy.

"I think I can bring our team together," Jordan told an ABC News reporter Friday afternoon.

However, 55 House Republicans said in Friday's secret vote that they would not cast ballots for Jordan in the full floor vote, calling into question his ability to reach the required 217 votes. McCarthy said he now backs Jordan for the position, and former President Trump endorsed Jordan early in the race for speaker, which could work both for and against his chances.

INTERNAL OPPOSITION: Jordan is still facing at least 10 to 20 holdouts (CBS News). A faction of House Republicans that strongly opposes Jordan is vowing he'll have a challenger during the floor vote (Politico). While they have not yet nailed down a specific name, they believe the eventual candidate will not only be able to block Jordan from the speakership, but also give cover to those who want to vote against him.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) predicted Sunday that it will be tough for Jordan to get the votes. "Nothing's impossible, but it's going to be really, really difficult, based on what I'm hearing," Crenshaw said on CNN's "State of the Union".

Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) a member of the GOP leadership team, plans to jump into the race if Jordan can't secure the 217 votes needed on the House floor (NBC News).

ACROSS THE AISLE, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Sunday that there are "informal conversations" taking place for a bipartisan solution to the House Speakership, which has been vacant for nearly two weeks.

Asked by NBC's Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press" why formal conversations haven't happened yet, Jeffries said: "At this point, that is on my House Republican colleagues. We have made clear, publicly and privately, that we are ready, willing and able to enter into a bipartisan governing coalition that puts the American people first and solves problems for hardworking American taxpayers."

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Jordan's backers say this time is different. Allies say support from grassroots conservatives will help him win, but dozens of GOP holdouts present a tough hurdle.

▪ The Washington Post: Jordan allies threatened vulnerable Republicans representing districts that Biden won in 2020, telling them that if they don't vote for him behind closed doors, they will get primaried.

SENATE JITTERS: Senators return to Washington this week feeling flummoxed by the turmoil in the House. As The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports, Republican senators have called on their House colleagues to unify behind a Speaker as quickly as possible, but that plea has fallen flat. Senate aides and strategists say the leadership vacuum raises doubts about Congress's ability to pass aid for Israel or Ukraine or to keep the government funded beyond Nov. 17, and fear the ongoing chaos in the House could hurt Republicans' chances of taking back the Senate and White House by raising questions about their ability to govern.

"If you're a senator in leadership, looking at the House leadership, you're feeling pretty good about yourself right now because the Senate doesn't have anywhere near the same problems getting things done," Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide, told The Hill. "The House doesn't have a functioning leadership right now. There's no end in sight. There's just no endgame. How do you get out of this situation?"

The Hill: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.): The House GOP doesn't "care what senators think about their affairs."

Where and When

The House officially convenes at 6 p.m. Republicans have scheduled a Speaker vote Tuesday at noon.

The Senate returns to work this week and convenes at 3 p.m. with plans to debate the nomination of Jennifer Hall to be a U.S. District Court judge for Delaware.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will fly to Colorado to tour and then speak at 1:45 p.m. MDT at CS Wind America Inc. in Pueblo, described as the largest wind turbine tower manufacturing plant in the world. The White House points out it benefits from tax breaks enacted through the Inflation Reduction Act and is in the district of conservative critic Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert (Colo.). Biden will return to the White House at 9:50 p.m.

Vice President Harris is in Los Angeles and has no public schedule.

The secretary of state is in Israel.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Luxembourg to participate in the Eurogroup finance ministers meeting. This morning local time, she held a bilateral meeting with Yuriko Backes, the finance minister of Luxembourg and met with Paulo Gentiloni, the European commissioner of economy. Yellen will meet during a working lunch with Eurogroup President Pascal Donohoe, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, and Gentiloni. The secretary will deliver remarks during today's Eurogroup meeting and take questions from the press, along with Donohoe, at 9:45 a.m. ET. In the evening, Yellen will visit Luxembourg American Cemetery and lay a wreath to honor more than 5,000 U.S. soldiers buried there. She will return to the U.S.

First lady Jill Biden is in Florida to speak at 11 a.m. during a Cancer Survivorship Summit in Davie, hosted by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). Accompanying the first lady in the Sunshine State is Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough. The two will visit Patrick Space Force Base in Brevard County at 1 p.m. to meet with military spouses and families as part of the Joining Forces initiative.

Zoom in

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is increasingly being viewed as the most viable alternative to Trump, as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) continues to struggle to gain traction in the primary. While DeSantis remains a distant second to Trump — who is the leading favorite for the GOP nomination — Haley is steadily coming up on the Florida governor's heels. Haley has seen a rise in state-level polling, particularly in New Hampshire. Polling from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe and USA Today released earlier this month found Haley in second place behind Trump, who led her 49 percent to 19 percent.

Nationally, Haley has moved into third place, closely behind DeSantis. A Fox News poll released this week showed Haley growing her support to 10 percent, while DeSantis came in at 13 percent. The same poll showed Trump dominating the field with 59 percent support.

"Nikki Haley's rise or piqued interest, among particularly donors and Trump critics is due more to Ron DeSantis's falling in the polls than anything else," Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist, told The Hill. And Trump's critics at the national level have taken notice.

The Hill: North Carolina is emerging as a 2024 battleground for Democrats.

IN THE BATTLE FOR THE SENATE, Democrats remain hopeful of their chances to keep hold of their slim majority despite a difficult map for the party in 2024, but Republicans have prime opportunities to knock off incumbents and pick up seats in states won by Trump in the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections. The Hill's Al Weaver breaks down five key Senate races to watch.

Senate Democratic leaders are facing a thorny path in Arizona's race, where Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego could potentially square off against not only a Republican, but also Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), a former member of the Democratic party. As The Hill's Caroline Vakil reports, some Arizona Democrats expect Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to support Gallego, even if only behind the scenes, noting the animosity many in the party feel toward Sinema. But others believe the calculus is not that simple.

"I 100 percent think it's not clear because she's an incumbent," said one senior Democratic strategist. "She caucuses with the Democrats. She might not be a Democrat anymore, but she does caucus with us. I mean, so in that way, there's an incumbency there. And to the extent that she hasn't given any indication that she would stop caucusing with us, I think it puts us in a bind."

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2024 ROUNDUP

Trump will campaign in Iowa today with two events located near West Des Moines.
A courtroom settlement over withheld COVID-19 data that critics say cost thousands of lives has deflated DeSantis's campaign trail persona as a courageous freedom warrior who kept his state open during the pandemic.
Experts are sounding alarms that the 2024 presidential election could suffer from chaos and confusion after high turnover of local election officials and workers in key states.
Democrats and Republicans eye with concern signs that voters are gravitating toward independent candidates.
The campaign of former Vice President Mike Pence is running up debt, according to figures released to the Federal Election Commission by his presidential campaign Sunday. It's a warning sign for his 2024 bid.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) raised close to $6 million in the third quarter of fundraising for his presidential run between his political committees, his campaign announced on Sunday.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) thinks he has a Republican response to Democrats' abortion attacks. If it works, it could become a blueprint for the GOP and further elevate Youngkin's profile.
Republican Jeff Landry, a staunch Trump backer, won Louisiana's governors' race Saturday and will succeed Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who could not run again, in January.

Elsewhere

LEGAL TROUBLES

Trump's first few months in federal court as a defendant have shown that he is employing the same strategy he typically brings to his civil cases: seeking delay. As The Hill's Rebecca Beitsch reports, Trump made headlines with one motion suggesting his May trial in the Mar-a-Lago documents case should be bumped until mid-November 2024 — after the election. He and his attorneys have complained about how the cases he's facing could impact the election season — both in terms of his campaign schedule as well as influencing the results.

"From the beginning, they have been tactically, I think, as clear as they can be — the lawyers — in saying that they do not want these trials to happen before the election," said Ankush Khardori, a former federal prosecutor. "And we know the reason why that is: because if Trump can get back into office, these cases are going to be put on ice one way or another by him or his attorney general."

▪ The New York Times: Judge Tanya Chutkan, who grew up in a prominent Jamaican family and has extensive trial experience, has been thrust into the limelight as the judge overseeing Trump's Jan. 6, 2021, trial. She shows no sign of being intimidated by it.

▪ Politico: Trump faces a reckoning Chutkan mulls a gag order.

▪ CBS News: A "premium for presidential property" was among the ideas floated to inflate Trump's worth, court hears.

A new federal charge against Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) alleges he conspired with his wife and a New Jersey businessman to act as a foreign agent of Egypt — an unprecedented assertion marking the first time a sitting U.S. senator has been accused of working on behalf of another government. Trying the case may prove to be a test for federal prosecutors, who have escalated enforcement action related to undisclosed foreign influence operations in the U.S., write The Hill's Taylor Giorno and Ella Lee.

"Maybe it goes without saying, but members of the United States Senate — regardless of whether they register or not — are simply not permitted to be agents of foreign principles," said Matthew L. Schwartz, a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York who now focuses on white-collar defense as managing partner of Boies Schiller Flexner. "Their allegiance has to be to the United States."

Politico: Embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) has less than $23,000 in his campaign account after refunds — and reports debt he didn't disclose previously.

Labor

🩺 The largest health care strike in U.S. history produced a tentative labor agreement for a coalition of unions at Kaiser Permanente — but the deal was reached almost a week after the strike ended. That may seem counterintuitive; what's the incentive for an employer to settle after a strike ends? But the cost of the three-day strike earlier this month, and the threat of another, even larger strike next month, brought about a deal with one of the nation's largest health systems. The union's win is just the latest reason why short strikes are happening more and more (CNN).

🚘 Are leaders of the United Auto Workers close to a deal with Ford while increasing work stoppages as a tactic to get the deal over the finish line? Some analysts believe so (CNBC). UAW President Shawn Fain said Friday the union would not expand its strike against Detroit's "Big Three" automakers, but he said the union stood ready to add more workers to the picket lines at any time. The announcement marks a tactical shift; previously the UAW had announced strike expansions weekly, but now Fain said strike expansions could come at any day of the week, at any time.

"We are prepared at any time to call on more locals to stand up and walk out," Fain said in a livestream update on negotiations, later adding, "We changed the rules. Now there is only one rule — pony up."

▪ USA Today: UAW Strikes: How does compensation paid to unionized auto workers compare with other hourly jobs?

▪ The New York Times: "What about us?" Strikes leave other Hollywood workers reeling. The lives of hundreds of thousands of crew members have been upended, and even a deal between the actors and the studios might not help much in the short term.

Opinion

Israel must topple Hamas' genocidal regime. But not by killing countless Palestinian civilians, by Eitay Mack, opinion contributor, HaaretzHaaretz.
The U.S. should think twice about Israel's plans for Gaza, by Rashid Khalidi, guest essayist, The New York Times.

The Closer

And finally … 🎶🎞️💰 Taylor Swift is a music, movie and economic juggernaut. Her concert film, "The Eras Tour," opened over the weekend to a massive embrace from fans — and proved to be a financial thrill for the AMC theaters showing the film nationwide.

By one projection, Swift could reap $4.1 billion from her "Eras" concert performances along with the film now in release, which features the star for 2 hours and 48 minutes during her Los Angeles concert, the final performance of the first leg of her musical march. AMC reported $100 million alone from pre-sales of tickets for the film, which fans are treating like a less expensive stop on her sold-out tour.

The star apparently drives news site traffic, too, because The New York Times published a lengthy movie review along with at least four other expansive articles about Swift. Her recent reported romantic duet with Kansas City Chiefs player Travis Kelce has been described as "the most surprising thing in the NFL season." 🏈 Ticket sales? Up. Merchandise sales? Up. Spotted: Swift sitting next to Kelce's mom.

Software company QuestionPro recently quizzed 592 Swifties who responded to an opt-in online survey. Based on their answers and average concert attendance, the company estimated that Swift's fans spent about $93 million per concert — yes, on tickets, but also on merchandise, travel, hotels, food and outfits. By the end of the U.S. tour, the math comes to an eye-popping $5.7 billion boost to the country's economy.