Remember these numbers today: 46, 47, 47 and 4.
There are 46 days until Election Day. And nationally, the presidential race is deadlocked between Vice President Harris and Trump, 47 percent support to 47 percent, according to the latest surveys sponsored by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Journalists are running out of election synonyms for "really, really close." Thus, there was plenty of attention Thursday focused on the number four. That's the percentage-point lead Harris has over Trump in Pennsylvania (50 to 46), according to a new poll there. It's a bit of a surprise because it suggests Trump is doing better nationally than Harris, while the Democratic nominee is positioned more favorably in Northern battleground states. The New York Times calls the national vs. battleground differential a bit of a "puzzle" that will have to play out before being sorted out.
Harris earned plaudits from voters for her debate performance Sept. 10, but that clash with Trump did not appreciably change the race, as measured in surveys. She has vulnerabilities that have not eased, including voters' perceptions that she's too liberal and perhaps persistently a blank slate.
Trump's favorability ratings remained steady at 37 percent while 50 percent of American adults view Harris favorably, according to a survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted before Trump's brush with another assassination attempt.
Because voters will ultimately determine the ending of this cliffhanger in 46 days, it's worth noting they can get started immediately. Voters can fill out their ballots in-person beginning today in Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia. (Pennsylvania was scheduled to start early in-person voting Monday but has not yet begun because of legal challenges.)
The Hill: Five takeaways from the latest flurry of Trump-Harris polls.
Harris, during a virtual town-hall style event in Michigan Thursday with Oprah Winfrey, stuck to a campaign script about reproductive rights and immigration policy. She reaffirmed her support for a Senate bipartisan border security bill, which stalled under the weight of prominent opposition from Republicans, including Trump.
"When I am elected as president of the United States, I will make sure that bill gets to my desk and I will sign it into law," Harris said. The "Unite for America" event reached voters through simultaneous streaming platforms on social media.
Trump on Thursday in Washington spoke to Jewish voters at a campaign event about "fighting antisemitism" hosted with Miriam Adelson, a conservative megadonor, and then spoke at a conference hosted by the Israeli-American Council, a pro-Israel group.
He questioned why he lacks commanding support from Jewish voters and suggested they would have "a lot to do" with a loss in November if their support for his campaign does not grow.
"I'm not going to call this a prediction, but, in my opinion, the Jewish people would have a lot to do with a loss if I'm at 40 percent," Trump said, citing an unnamed poll.
Trump also criticized the college protest movement against Israel's handling of the war with Hamas. "My first week back in the Oval Office, my administration will inform every college president that if you do not end antisemitic propaganda, they will lose their accreditation and federal tax credit support," he said.
GOP TREMORS IN SWING STATE NORTH CAROLINA: Controversial and socially conservative Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson — commenting Thursday after a CNN article described his alleged inflammatory comments on a "Nude Africa" website before he entered politics — vowed to remain in the gubernatorial contest and denied writing posts that featured praise for transgender pornography and support for slavery. Robinson is competing against North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic nominee.
The state's deadline for a candidate to drop out was Thursday and the deadline to remove a candidate's name from the ballot has passed. Absentee ballots in North Carolina will be mailed beginning today.
Seizing a political opening, the Harris campaign quickly posted video clips on social media of Trump praising Robinson. During a March rally, the former president said of the lieutenant governor, "I think you're better than Martin Luther King. I think you are Martin Luther King times two."
Recent polls in North Carolina found Trump and Harris basically tied within the margin of error.
Martin Luther King III blasted Robinson for his reported characterization in 2011 of the late civil rights leader the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. as a "commie bastard" and "worse than a maggot."
Several members of North Carolina's Republican congressional delegation quickly distanced themselves from Robinson Thursday, reports The Hill's Jared Gans. Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) told The Hill as he walked into the House chamber that his reaction to the allegations is "not good."
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who is the chair of the House GOP's campaign arm, called the reports "very concerning." He said, "my hope is that the lieutenant governor can reassure the people of North Carolina that the allegations aren't true," adding Robinson should have a chance to demonstrate the reporting is false.
Republicans are on record as worried about Robinson's viability as a candidate because of his known catalog of derogatory and eyebrow-raising statements about various groups. Polls prior to CNN's reporting showed the lieutenant governor down by double digits.
Candidate security: Trump is both a former president and a candidate, meaning his Secret Service protection is extensive under two categories of security, and it has been fortified based on the existing threat level. But a part of this week's political debate focused on whether Trump is eligible for a carbon copy of intensive protection that surrounds a sitting president who leads the nation. The Speaker said he phoned the White House this week to demand that Biden "supply for President Trump the same degree of protection that a sitting president has."
Security investigations: Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis this week stepped into the spotlight by launching a state investigation into Sunday's presumed assassination attempt on Trump at his golf course in Palm Beach. The effort is concurrent with a Justice Department investigation and a congressional task force probe. DeSantis suggests that because the Justice Department is prosecuting Trump for unlawfully taking national security and classified White House documents to Mar-a-Lago after his loss to Biden (and then allegedly obstructing a federal investigation), the department cannot be trusted to investigate an assassination attempt on the GOP's presidential nominee. DeSantis issued an executive order assigning the case to prosecutors from the office of Ashley Moody, the Florida attorney general.
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