12:30 Report — 6 weeks to Election Day: Where do Harris and Trump stand?

View Online  12:30 REPORT It's Tuesday. Six weeks from today is Election Day! That means your TV ads will go back to normal in six weeks and one day. 😉 Here's what's happening: Election forecasting shows a dead heat between Trump and Harris. The Hill released its annual list of notable staffers on Capitol Hill! Melania Trump is doing a Fox News interview. A major storm is headed for Florida. It could make landfall Thursday as a strong hurricane.   I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.   🚌 On The Campaign Trail Six weeks left — where do we stand?: ©  GIPHY/GIPHY Calendar Vice President Harris and former President Trump are in a dead-heat race six weeks out from Election Day. So close that pollster Nate Silver said his models are as close as he has ever seen them in his 16 years of forecasting. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ's latest model gives Harris a 55 percent chance of winning. 538 gives Harris a 57 percent chance. RealClearPolitics's polling average shows Harris leading Trump by roughly 2 points. The New York Times's Nate Cohn (the other Nate!) writes that neither candidate is "leading by three percentage points or more in any of the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency." Check out the polling in the seven battlegrounds   This would be big: Former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele predicted that Harris will flip North Carolina and Florida to blue. It's worth noting that he is now a frequent critic of his party.   Trump is using a high-risk, high-reward strategy: The Hill's Brett Samuels reports that the Trump campaign is using a unique, untested strategy to win in November: Courting Americans who don't reliably vote.   On one hand: There aren't many undecided voters left — the vast majority of Americans have a strong opinion of Trump — so this plan is to create more votes for him.   On the other hand: It's not a traditional get-out-the-vote effort and could backfire. For example: The campaign may skip knocking on a door of a voter if that person is already likely to vote for Trump. The ground game is everything.   Read Samuels's full reporting: 'Trump campaign's ground game worries some Republicans'   Harris got the nod from 400 econ folks: A group of more than 400 economists and former policymakers endorsed Harris this morning, arguing Trump's policy proposals would create uncertainty in the economy. This plus the falling interest rates will help Harris, who has to defend the Biden administration's economy over the past four years. ➤  WILL THERE BE A SECOND HARRIS-TRUMP DEBATE?: Harris challenged Trump to a second debate, but he still hasn't accepted it. The Hill's Alex Gangitano and Julia Manchester report that there is growing pressure on him, though.   Strategists think he doesn't have much to lose: Harris is largely viewed as the winner of the first debate — especially since Trump has been mercilessly mocked for his claim that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio — and yet, the debate didn't move the needle with polling. Trump does, however, have the chance to come out swinging.   CNN is offering to host: Harris accepted CNN's invitation for an Oct. 23 faceoff with Trump.   But even if there isn't another debate: There's still next Tuesday's VP debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley described the Oct. 1 match-up as "most important … in U.S. history" on MSNBC's "Morning Joe. ➤  INTERESTING READ: The Atlantic's McKay Coppins writes that Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) is bracing for another potential Trump presidency. "Romney has good reason to fear Trump's vengeance," he argues.   Would he endorse Harris?: "When we spoke this past spring," Coppins writes. "Romney said he hadn't ruled out endorsing Biden (even though his policies 'drive [me] crazy.') After Harris was nominated, I asked for another interview but he declined."   It's a fascinating read: 'What Will Mitt Romney Do if Trump Wins?' ➤ MORE READS FROM THE TRAIL: 'Latest strategy in fighting election skepticism: Radical transparency': The Washington Post 'If landline phones are dying out, how do political polls work today?': Nexstar 'Trump Tells Women That They Won't "Be Thinking About Abortion"': The New York Times 'A State-by-State Guide to Early Voting Ahead of Election Day': The Wall Street Journal 'I was a Secret Service agent. Protecting presidents is not like in the movies.': Op-ed in The Hill 🗽 In New York Sorry in advance if you're trying to travel through NYC this week: ©  GIPHY/Amazon Prime Video Global leaders, including President Biden, are in New York City today for the 79th United Nations General Assembly.   Biden delivered his last address to the assembly, and he opened with a joke about his age. "Today is the fourth time I've had the great honor of speaking to this assembly as president of the United States. It will be my last," Biden began. "I've seen a remarkable sweep of history ... I know I look like I'm only 40."   Biden reflected on his upcoming retirement from politics: "My fellow leaders, let us never forget: Some things are more important than staying in power." 📹 Watch the clip   💻 Watch Biden's morning address ©  AP This year's theme: "Unity and diversity for advancing peace, sustainable development and human dignity, everywhere and for all." Think: Climate, economy, artificial intelligence, Gaza, Ukraine, China's aggression and preventing a widespread conflict in the Middle East   Helpful primer on the U.N. meetings this week: Here are five things to know THE HILL JOBS Interested in exploring a new career? Visit The Hill Jobs Board to discover millions of roles worldwide, including:   Counsel, Operations and Regulatory Compliance — The Walt Disney Company (Corporate), Doctor Phillips, Fla. Apply   Director, Generative AI - Agents and Tooling - People Leader (Remote Eligible) — Capital One, New York  Apply Associate Director, Corporate Communications — Amazon.com, East Orange, N.J. Apply   Hotel Manager Marriott Marquis — Marriott, Washington, D.C.  Apply   Click here to get your job mentioned 💰 In Congress 25 staffers who, behind the scenes, keep the wheels turning: The Hill's annual Notable Staffers is out!   Senators and House members wear the pins, but Capitol Hill staffers are who draft the legislation, research the policies, whip support for bills, help constituents, deal with the media — essentially, they run Capitol Hill. Once a year, The Hill features 25 staffers whose work you know, but whose names you likely don't.   🔎 See who made this year's list ➤  TIDBIT ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT FUNDING SCHEDULING: The House is expected to vote on a clean, three-month funding extension Wednesday. CNN's Sarah Ferris noted that it is "very likely" the House would leave tomorrow after the vote. There's a hurricane headed toward Florida, and some are worried about it disrupting travel.   ^ If you've missed the hurricane news: A major storm is headed for Florida. It is named Helene and may make landfall Thursday.   🌀 The Weather Channel's storm forecast 🌀 Map of the storm 🌀 The latest National Hurricane Center's projection 🐝 Internet Buzz 🍒 Celebrate: Today is National Cherries Jubilee Day!   💵 Well, that's a new campaign strategy — hand out cold, hard cash: Trump handed a woman in Pennsylvania a $100 bill to pay for her groceries. 📹 Watch the video   🔎 Holy cow!: A boy who was abducted in 1951 was found alive more than 70 years later(!) Read the AP story   🛍️ Well, you won't be asked "paper or plastic?" anymore: California has banned all plastic shopping bags. It will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. ©  GIPHY/Hulu 🚆 Hey, you can live on Amtrak, apparently: Amtrak just launched a trip from Chicago to Miami. It'll only take a casual 47 hours. 📆 On The Agenda The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in New York City, and Vice President Harris is in Washington. (all times Eastern) This morning: Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Jørgensen testified on Ozempic and Wegovy pricing. 💻 Watch This morning: Biden addressed the UN General Assembly. 💻 Watch 1:30 p.m.: First House votes. Last votes are expected around 4:30 p.m. 📆 Today's agenda 1:45 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks at the Global Coalition to Address Synthetic Drug Threats. 💻 Livestream 2:15 p.m.: Two Senate votes. 📆 Today's agenda 3 p.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the U.N. Security Council. 💻 Livestream 4:30 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks on the climate at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum. 💻 Livestream Thursday morning: Former first lady Melania Trump will appear on "Fox & Friends" to promote her new book. 17: Trump will attend the annual Al Smith dinner in New York. Harris will *not* attend, which is notable — presidential candidates traditionally attend The New York Catholic Charities fundraiser. 👋 And Finally… Let's all join this 8-month-old golden retriever puppy for a "day in the life." Stay Engaged Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.   View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time! Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  Sign Up for Other Newsletters 400 N Capitol Street NW Suite 650, Washington, DC 20001 © 1998 - 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.