© Brandon Bell/Pool via AP |
Musk's clout is on the ballot in Wisconsin |
On the menu: Dems plumb new poll low; Texas GOP braces for bitter Senate primary; 2026's tiny House map; Do you even politics, bro?; Un-herd-of artist Voting got underway this week in the race for a 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Between now and the end of the election on April 1, the contest, already the most expensive judicial race in American history at about $60 million, could see spending levels akin to a battleground Senate race in a presidential year, with rhetoric just as mean and nasty. The election is putatively nonpartisan but, a careful fact-check reveals: lolz. The Republican-backed candidate is a trial judge in a red county in suburban Milwaukee and former state attorney general, Brad Schimel. He's a longtime booster of President Trump, and already has the loud backing and heavy spending of Trump's right-hand man, Elon Musk, as well as the princes of MAGA, Donald Trump Jr. and the movement's youth leader, Charlie Kirk. But it was Musk who laid down a marker on the contest very early on and has become the face of the race. The Democrats are all in for Susan Crawford. She's a trial judge in Madison, the home to the state's flagship university, state capital and most reliable progressive voters. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and a growing list of Democrats looking to elevate their national reputations have boosted the liberal jurist, and the blue team's mega-donors have dumped bales of cash on the pro-Crawford effort. The stakes for the race are significant if you're a Wisconsin resident. Seats on the seven-member court don't come up very often, and in 2023, the last time one did, a Democratic-backed judge replaced a retiring conservative, nudging the majority to the left. Now it's a liberal justice who is retiring, so Republicans are hoping to tip the court back in their favor. And because Wisconsin is so narrowly divided and bitterly partisan, the court often ends up breaking political deadlocks. But if you don't live in Wisconsin, so what? The Badger State is great and everything, but everybody has their own state stuff to sort out, so why not let the cheeseheads do their own thing? Here are three reasons you should give this race a moment of your time: 1) Prestige points: Sometimes a race is important just because the right person says it is. When John Kennedy's 1960 campaign picked the West Virginia Democratic primary to show it could win in the Protestant South (even though West Virginia is not Southern and wasn't all that Protestant), it was Kennedy picking his battle. A loss there would have meant that the premise of Kennedy's candidacy was flawed, even in a contest of his own choosing. That's what Musk is doing in Wisconsin. He's called his shot and means to prove that his social media company and his massive fortune can mobilize lower-propensity Trump voters — lots of younger men — for typically low-turnout elections. Walz is trying to rally Democrats to prove Musk wrong, which amounts to an acceptance of the White House adviser's challenge. If Schimel wins, Musk will have hard evidence to suggest that he can swing an election, something that will reap him big rewards, particularly when it comes to keeping anxious Republicans in line with primary threats. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is not exaggerating the fear congressional Republicans have of Musk. If Musk misses, GOPers may feel emboldened in their pushback. A loss for the Musk-backed candidate would also certainly offer Democrats some ray of hope in an otherwise dismal moment for the party. 2) Bellwether of the ball: Sometimes a state race takes on national implications because the state is a good reflection of the nation as a whole. Wisconsin is surely that, having picked the winner of every presidential election since 2008 and closely matched the national popular vote in 2020 and 2024. Last year, Trump won 49.6 percent of the vote in Wisconsin and 49.7 percent nationally. We'll have off-cycle elections this fall in New Jersey and Virginia, both of which will tell us a great deal about how certain segments of the national electorate are feeling. But Wisconsin is more like a microcosm of our national politics. It's not a perfect demographic match, but all the elements are there, and its bellwether status is beyond dispute. 3) A referendum to recall: Sometimes a state race turns into a referendum on a national issue. In January of 2010, Massachusetts voters chose a replacement for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), who had died the previous August. The vote took place at the moment when the debate over ObamaCare had reached its final and ugliest phase. Republican Scott Brown won the race on an explicit campaign to block the controversial health insurance proposal. When voters in one of the most Democratic states in the union picked him, it was the most glaring indicator yet that the plan was in trouble. Democrats plowed ahead anyway, using a procedural end around, but that race foretold the brutal midterm beating Democrats would take from the GOP with ObamaCare as the main cudgel. There are too many big issues at play right now to say that any one thing is at the center of the national debate, but judicial power is the one thing that keeps intersecting with all of them. Crawford's message is all about judicial independence and a court that resists the powerful. Schimel is running as the guy who says he will stop the court from pushing its own agenda. As MAGA voters fulminate over judicial orders that threaten to disrupt the implementation of the Trump "golden age," and Democrats are making the judges that issue them into secular saints, it's quite a moment to be having a high-stakes court election in a swing state that teeters between the two sides. In 2012, Wisconsin's then-Gov. Scott Walker survived a recall election under similar circumstances. Walker, a Republican, had gone to war with the state's government employee unions and won, so Democrats tried to give him the boot after less than two years in office. Walker's victory in an ugly race foretold a good bit about what was ahead for politics in Wisconsin and nationally. Now, the changes that Walker enacted are echoed in the Department of Government Efficiency battles playing out in Washington, while the survival of his original policy itself may depend on whether Crawford or Schimel wins the current election. Worth watching? Oh yeah, you betcha. |
Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions & amplifications: WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com. If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be publicized, please specify. |
By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, March 21 |
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Net Score: -6.2 points [Average includes: Echelon: 49% approve – 48% disapprove; NBC News: 47% approve – 51% disapprove; Quinnipiac: 42% approve – 53% disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters: 44% approve – 52% disapprove; CNN/SSRS: 45% approve – 54% disapprove] |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY HITS NEW POLLING LOW |
Rate your feelings toward the Democratic Party as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. Very positive: 7% Somewhat positive: 20% Neutral: 18% Somewhat negative: 17% Very negative: 38% [NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, March 2025] |
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Defector: "It was Dec. 16, 1968, and Muhammad Ali was headed to jail. … But it was more than just 'that Army thing' that led him to begin serving his sentence on this particular day. Ali's stint in a Miami jail was also part of a promotion for his new hamburger joint, Champburger. … The week before Ali reported to prison, Joe Namath was in Miami to open a Broadway Joe's restaurant. … The celebrity fast-food craze can primarily be traced to the success of Gino's Hamburgers, a restaurant founded by Joe Campanella, Louis Fischer, Alan Ameche, and Gino Marchetti in the late 1950s. … After that, it was just a matter of waiting for the Blue Castle/White Tower types to arrive. Those knockoffs came in varying forms, but they all had a celebrity attached. … Johnny Carson had Here's Johnny's! Ron Santo had his own pizzas at Wrigley Field. Bart Starr owned drive-ins. … As befits its larger than life namesake, Champburger somehow ended with both a bang and a whimper. The corporation dissolved in May 1973." |
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Paxton preps primary challenge to Cornyn: The Hill: "Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) hasn't launched a formal campaign to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) next year, but he appeared to inch closer toward a run during a recent interview. 'He's had his chance. He hasn't performed well, and the voters know it,' Paxton told Punchbowl News on Monday. … Money will be the deciding factor in whether or not Paxton primaries Cornyn, a Republican stalwart who has been in the Senate for nearly two decades and climbed the chamber's GOP ranks. … Cornyn's favorability back home sits at about 49 percent among Republican voters. … Comparatively, Paxton's favorability sits at about 62 percent among Republicans. … The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 in a bipartisan vote with support from dozens of Republican members, and he was suspended from office but was later acquitted and restored by the state Senate." |
Pappas considers Senate run after Shaheen retirement: Politico: "Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is considering a run for Senate after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement Wednesday, while former Rep. Annie Kuster told POLITICO she would take a 'serious look' at the seat if he doesn't run. … Pappas has long been considered a likely contender for an open Senate seat. … Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander is also considering running. … New Hampshire will be a critical battleground in the fight over control for the Senate, but it was already a challenging map for Democrats to retake the majority even before the retirements. … Former Republican Gov. Chris Sununu said on Tuesday he was mulling a run for the seat. … Scott Brown, the former ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa who lost to Shaheen in 2014, also jumped in with a statement." |
Dems overjoyed as Dixon hints at another Michigan bid: The Hill: "Tudor Dixon, the Republican businessperson and conservative commentator who unsuccessfully ran for Michigan governor in 2022, is weighing another run for political office in 2026, but she hasn't decided which one: U.S. Senate or governor, again. … 'I will decide soon where my experience and talents would most benefit the state we love so dearly,' she added. In her statement, Dixon praised President Trump, who endorsed her failed campaign against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) three years ago, for actions taken since his return to the White House in January and reaffirmed her support. … Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) announced in January he won't seek another term in 2026. … Whitmer, a potential 2028 presidential contender, cannot seek reelection as governor in 2026 because of the state's term limits." |
House map shrinks as 'crossover' districts match record low: Cook Political Report: "Just sixteen lawmakers now represent crossover districts: three Republicans hold seats that Kamala Harris carried, and 13 Democrats hold seats that Donald Trump carried. … These members will be among the most vulnerable in the country in 2026, and their ability to continue winning reelection in difficult seats will determine which party wins control of the House. … The bulk of these Trump-won crossover districts are racially diverse, and had previously voted for the Democrat running for president. In fact, Joe Biden carried 10 of these 13 districts in 2020. … Some of these districts are held by veteran incumbents who had established identities in their districts and were able to retain support from recently-converted Trump voters. … The Republicans in this crossover category are familiar names, thanks to their willingness to publicly criticize their own party (an increasingly rare occurrence in Trump's GOP)." |
Why young men went MAGA in 2024: New Yorker: "In last year's Presidential election, Democrats lost support with nearly every kind of voter: rich, poor, white, Black, Asian American, Hispanic. But the defection that alarmed Party strategists the most was that of young voters, especially young men, a group that Donald Trump lost by fifteen points in 2020 and won by fourteen points in 2024 — a nearly thirty-point swing. … Candidates matter; so does the national mood, and the price of groceries. Yet some Monday-morning quarterbacks also noted that … the 2024 Presidential campaign was the first to be conducted largely on live streams and long-form podcasts, media that happen to be thoroughly dominated by MAGA bros. … By 2024 anyone with access to Spotify or YouTube could find hours of flattering footage of Trump looking like a chill, approachable grandpa. Harris tried. She appeared on a few big podcasts — 'Club Shay Shay,' whose audience is primarily Black, and 'Call Her Daddy,' whose audience is mostly female — but she never made inroads with the comedy bros." |
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DeSantis insiders urge donors to duck Rep. Byron Donalds—NBC News |
At last, confirmation nears for Rep. Elise Stefanik, setting up special election for her seat—Axios |
Longtime House Democrat backs Schumer's ouster from leadership—The Hill |
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"I myself don't give away anything for nothing. I think that's what happened the other day."— Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) criticizing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) for pushing Democrats to back the continuing resolution last week. |
"Look, I own this. We wouldn't be in this mess if we had won the election, and we didn't."—Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz reflects on the 2024 campaign in an interview with MSNBC. |
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| Garden & Gun: "Every winter, all winter long, drivers on Tolers Ferry Road passing through Huddleston, Virginia, are in for a surprise. Last year it was Jimm-Hay Buffett. This year, it's Dor-Hay and Nemo; Dumbo has made an appearance; so has Doll-Hay Parton. … If the name lends itself to a pun, all the better, but either way, the towering sculpture on the edge of Buckscrape Farm is sure to be made of hay. … Come late fall, when hay season is over, the grass goes dormant, and farm duties start winding down, Beth Bays gets to work. … She stuffs the chicken wire frames with straw and uses landscaping stables to pin the shapes to the bales. Spray painting is the final step. Often, passersby will lend a hand — one year, four men stopped unsolicited and built a doghouse for Snoopy after noticing her struggling. … Of course, each creation brings its own challenges — Dumbo's floppy ears, for example, or Doll-Hay's microphone. … The overall goal, though, is to put some joy in the world." |
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! |
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report. |
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