Two special elections happening Tuesday in Florida are getting a lot of national attention. Both are deep red districts where Trump comfortably won by more than 30 points in November. But Republicans are not doing as well as expected, prompting alarm among the GOP. This could be the first big report card for the Trump administration's dizzying start.
The first is straightforward — Florida's 1st Congressional District: The election to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), whom Trump first picked to be his attorney general but then withdrew amid sexual misconduct allegations that Gaetz denies. Republican Jimmy Patronis is facing Democrat Gay Valimont.
But the second is getting more attention — Florida's 6th Congressional District: The election to replace Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz, who gave up his House seat to join the administration. Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is facing Democrat Josh Weil.
Weil has raised an eye-popping $9.5 million, so Fine donated $600,000 to his own campaign to close the gap, per The New York Times. Weil has $1.3 million cash on hand while his Republican opponent has roughly $93,000.
An internal poll from a Republican firm shows Weil with a 3-point lead.
Republicans seem nervous: "A top Trump adviser recently confronted Fine about the need to step up his effort, and House GOP campaign chief Richard Hudson and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer each separately told Fine to 'get his s--- together,'" CNN reports.
They've brought in the big guns: Trump called into two virtual town halls, and Elon Musk's PAC has poured more than $76,000 into the race in the past week, per The Hill's Julia Manchester.
Why this matters so much for Republicans: The GOP already has such an uncomfortably small margin in the House to pass Trump's legislative agenda. Those nerves were on full display last week when the White House yanked Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations because they needed her to stay in the House to help their numbers.
💡 For context: Republicans are still favored to win — it's a *very* Republican district, after all. (Trump won it by 30 points and Waltz won by 33 points.) But Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is telling Republicans to brace for "a way underperformance." Fine could win and it could still be energizing for Democrats if Republicans' lead is cut by 15 or 20 points. It's also worth noting that special election turnout can be unpredictable, so this is not a perfect report card.
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