Spiegel Stuff: The Movement: Inside the group making an ‘EPIC’ impact on the Trump-GOP megabill

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

The Movement: Inside the group making an ‘EPIC’ impact on the Trump-GOP megabill

By Emily Brooks | Tuesday, June 24

Inside the group making an 'EPIC' impact on the Trump-GOP megabill

A 2-year-old conservative group with a grand-sounding acronym has packed a major punch as congressional Republicans push forward the "big, beautiful bill" of President Trump's tax cut and spending priorities.

Look in the corner of the recent charts being shared in letters and social media posts from the Republican Party's deficit hawks and you'll see it came from the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC).

But the young think tank's impact on the megabill goes far deeper than recent messaging. From early discussions far before Trump rewon the White House to major inflection points pushing the bill forward, EPIC — and particularly its founder, President and CEO Paul Winfree — has been a key advice line for House Republicans crafting and advancing the major legislation.

Take, for example, a late-night meeting in the Speaker's suite back in February, the night before the House Budget Committee was set to vote on the resolution kicking off the reconciliation process.

Hard-line deficit hawks on the panel and beyond were unhappy with the initial outline and had threatened to tank the committee vote — until members agreed to and revealed a last-minute compromise using a novel mechanism that tied the spending cuts to the tax cuts, reducing the amount of tax cuts lawmakers could include unless they also upped "savings" elsewhere.

"Paul Winfree helped to develop that idea," Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), a deficit hawk and member of the Budget Committee who was in that meeting, told me. "We had him on speaker [phone] that night, helping to explain the idea to our leadership."

Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) also mentioned Winfree in an interview in February when talking about the compromise.

Leadership agreed — and the measure advanced in committee the next day.

"We've been able to build a pretty incredible amount of trust in a very short period of time with a large group of members of Congress, and in particular, members of the House," Winfree — a Ph.D. economist whose resume includes the first Trump administration, the Heritage Foundation and the Senate Budget Committee — told me.

EPIC's influence and role as a resource for Republicans has remained throughout the budget process. The House Agriculture Committee, for instance, has repeatedly cited EPIC's work on food assistance program reforms, such as on food stamps and making states share the cost of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for the first time.

"It's like having my own CBO on speed dial," a senior House Freedom Caucus aide said of the group, referring to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the budget scorer whose math has come under fire from Republicans.

Winfree's close relationships with policymakers — and his early preparation for the possibility of Republicans securing the trifecta control of government — have made his organization even more influential in the reconciliation bill process than other established conservative organizations with far larger budgets.

"I started building my team and also our work product with a focus on knowing that we were going to have to deal with this fiscal cliff and these fiscal inflection points," Winfree said, in reference to deadlines like tax cuts expiring. "And that alone — regardless of how the election turned out — was going to give us the ability to create a tremendous amount of leverage to do something."

"Everybody was not focusing on Congress, but focusing on the executive and what they were doing with the administration. I was like, what we should be doing is focusing directly with Congress. And the biggest bet that we could place is working as closely with House leadership as we possibly could, because they would ultimately be forced to make the same bet," Winfree explained.

Winfree reached out to GOP leadership — and got a big break when he pitched then-House Republican Study Committee (RSC) Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) on EPIC hosting a policy retreat for the conservative caucus. The event used to be hosted by the Heritage Foundation but had not occurred in several years.

Hern said yes — and Winfree, who had just started his organization months earlier, scrambled to make the retreat happen.

"I took, like, all of the extra seed money that we had. I literally did not buy furniture. We literally had a plastic table that you would find on a construction site that we worked around for the first few months so that we could throw this retreat for the RSC," Winfree said.

EPIC huddled with a few dozen members at the April 2024 retreat at the Omni Homestead Resort in Hot Springs, Va., running through the policy issues and process that would become key to the "big, beautiful bill."

The group also built influence by being strategically different from most of the other outside groups on the right. Some groups focus on big, 30,000-foot ideological questions; some generally represent business interests; and others act as a scorekeeper for conservative principles meant to hold lawmakers accountable.

But similar to Paragon Health Institute — another young think tank that Republican lawmakers turned to while crafting Medicaid reforms in the bill, which I wrote about previously — EPIC does not keep score on individual lawmakers and focuses on getting into the nitty-gritty and being a resource for policymakers working in the realm of what is possible.

"He understands the sort of political process. He understands reconciliation, and has worked with it ... and then he has relationships with folks in the House, folks in the Senate and folks in the administration. And so I think there were a number of people who had been talking with him throughout the process and relying on him for advice as well," Smucker said of Winfree.

Welcome to The Movement, a weekly newsletter about the influences and debates on the right in Washington. I'm Emily Brooks, House leadership reporter at The Hill, with an assist this week from my colleague Mychael Schnell.

Tell us what's on your radar: ebrooks@thehill.com, mschnell@thehill.com. Follow us on X: @emilybrooksnews, @mychaelschnell.

Programming note: Next week's edition will hit your inboxes on Wednesday, July 2.

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MAGA WING FACES DIVIDE AFTER US STRIKES IRAN

Last week, we wrote about the ideological battle over what "America First" means in the Trump administration after Israel launched strikes on Iran.

Now — after Trump directed U.S. forces to strike three nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday, prompting a retaliation by Tehran — the MAGA right is seeing a rift develop within that rift.

Some of the non-interventionists who were vocal in advocating against U.S. military operations in the Middle East are now lining up behind Trump's weekend strike, a reflection of Trump's popularity among the GOP base and the political perils of breaking with him on any issue at all.

Take, for example, Charlie Kirk, founder and CEO of Turning Point USA. Earlier this month, Kirk posted a poll on the social platform X asking "Should the US get involved in Israel's war against Iran?" — and a resounding 89.6 percent of respondents answered "No." The next day, he made the case against U.S. involvement in Iran.

"The question will be in the coming days and weeks: Will there be clamoring for an offensive American strategy against Iran?" Kirk said on Fox News. "Will some people say, 'Hey we can finally wipe them out, we have them on the ropes.' I would introduce a little bit of caution towards that, especially from a younger generational perspective."

"I do believe that President Trump is uniquely positioned here to stand with our allies, to stand on the side of civilization, but also understand that his voters, they want a return to America First, to stand with what is right and just in the world," he added. "But we do not want a potential endless quagmire in the Middle East, and I'm confident President Trump will make sure that does not happen."

But after the U.S. armed forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday, at the direction of the president, Kirk sounded a different tune, publishing a series of social media posts lauding the effort.

"Iran gave President Trump no choice," he wrote on X minutes after news of the attack broke. "For a decade he has been adamant that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon. Iran decided to forego diplomacy in pursuit of a bomb. This is a surgical strike, operated perfectly."

"America stands with President Trump," he wrote in a subsequent post.

After Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday afternoon, Kirk wrote on X: "We told you to trust President Trump."

Not all of MAGA's non-interventionists, however, jumped on the bandwagon. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), one of Trump's most vocal supporters on the right, not only criticized the military operation but also defended her right to do so — complete with a statement that "Trump is not a king."

"I spent millions of my own money and TRAVELED THE ENTIRE COUNTRY campaigning for President Trump and his MAGA agenda and his promises. And Trump's MAGA agenda included these key promises: NO MORE FOREIGN WARS. NO MORE REGIME CHANGE. WORLD PEACE. And THIS is what the people voted for," Greene wrote. "Only 6 months in and we are back into foreign wars, regime change, and world war 3."

"Contrary to [what] brainwashed Democrat boomers think and protest about, Trump is not a king, MAGA is not a cult, and I can and DO have my own opinion," she added.

Greene joins the likes of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has been a loud advocate against U.S. involvement — going as far as to call Trump's strikes "not Constitutional" and spearhead a bipartisan war powers resolution pushing back on U.S. intervention in Iran.

Despite that agreement, Greene — who ascended alongside Trump's meteoric rise — wants zero association with Massie, who has become a boogeyman on the MAGA right after endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP primary and breaking from the party on a number of big-ticket votes on Capitol Hill.

"He's got his own brand. He's not MAGA," Greene told Punchbowl News of Massie, whom she teamed up with last year in trying to oust Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from his post. "My name should not be put anywhere near what's going on between Thomas Massie and Donald Trump."

The rift within the rift could become even deeper. Trump on Sunday floated regime change in Iran — "if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change?" — a statement that is sure to frustrate anti-interventionists and test their willingness to fall behind Trump, or stake a lane of their own.

Here's an early taste. Steve Bannon on his "War Room" program on Monday said: "Was the entire thing for the nukes just cosplay? Is this because the ultimate goal is regime change? And if that's fine, Israelis have at it, like we've said, finish what you started. If you want regime change, go for it, baby. Just no participation by the United States government."

Related: MAGA erupts over Trump's Iran 'regime change' talk, from our colleague Al Weaver

CONCERNED VETERANS FOR AMERICA HOST HILL FLY-IN

Concerned Veterans for America (CVA), the Koch-backed group once led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, is hosting their annual "Vets on the Hill" fly-in this week — which comes at a critical moment for U.S. foreign policy after the strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites.

The event is meant to bring veterans' voices to Capitol Hill to discuss a variety of topics, including economic prosperity, health care and foreign policy — which will likely take center stage this week.

We spoke with John Vick, CVA's executive director, on Monday to discuss this week's Capitol Hill confab and how he sees the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and what could come next after the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

The group — which Vick touted as the only national grassroots organization that is built to amplify veterans and military family voices across government — is rather anti-interventionist, a posture that Vick described as being based on "realism and restraint, being more prudent, utilizing some of the instruments of national power apart from just the military."

But even with that perspective, Vick saw opportunity in the weekend strikes — and appeared to predict the future in some respects. We spoke to him before Trump announced the Israel-Iran ceasefire — but during our conversation, he forecast that things could be headed in that direction.

A Marine Corps-enlisted veteran and current intelligence-focused Navy reservist, Vick referred to an acronym often used at the Naval War College: diplomatic, informational, military and economic, or DIME.

"What I think you could see for the first time in a long time, from America's perspective at least, is a situation that started off with diplomatic and informational went suddenly into military and informational, and is now — and Trump just came out too saying like, 'Ah, you know, Iran's attack was ineffective, it's not warranting escalation,'" Vick said. "So now we're seeing this arc of DIME go back into diplomatic and informational again, and maybe economic. So I think it's a tremendous opportunity for the Trump administration."

"Imagine if this thing goes back to the negotiating table and there's a way to have verifiable reduction or elimination of Iranian nuclear enrichment," he added. "You would see this full scope of these levers of national power happening. And if you're in the realism-and-restraint camp like CVA certainly is, that's a wonderful case study."

An hour and a half later, Trump announced a ceasefire between the Middle East enemies.

Further reading: Trump announces parameters of ceasefire between Israel and Iran, from our colleague Alex Gangitano.

ON OUR CALENDAR

Tuesday, June 24: House and Senate briefing on Iran, at 3 p.m. for the House and 4 p.m. for the Senate.
Tuesday, June 24: Heritage Foundation launch of "American Founders" and presentation of America's 250th Anniversary Innovation Prizes, with keynote by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), 4 p.m. Details here.
Tuesday, June 24: Breitbart News's Matt Boyle holds a discussion with Energy Secretary Chris Wright, sponsored by the ALFA Institute and CGCN, 9:30 a.m.

THREE MORE THINGS

1. Trump targets Massie

President Trump is once again aiming his fire at Rep. Thomas Massie, vowing to run a primary challenger against the Kentucky Republican next year — and even campaign for that candidate. After Massie, a vocal advocate against U.S. intervention in Iran, posted on X that the strike on three of Iran's nuclear facilities was "not Constitutional," Trump unloaded on the congressman, calling him "a negative force," a "grandstander" and "weak." Deputy White House chief of staff James Blair joined in, writing on X: "I hope Thomas Massie is enjoying his last term in Congress."

2. Senate races to finish

It could be a long few days — maybe weeks — for Senate Republicans as they race to finish up work on the party's "big, beautiful bill." Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wrote in a Fox News opinion piece Monday, as senators returned to Washington, that the chamber "will remain here until this bill is passed," even as a number of key hang-ups remain, threatening the July 4 recess — including barbecues, fireworks and parades back home. Asked on Monday if he currently has the votes for passage, Thune responded: "Let's hope so."

3. Tucker vs. Cruz clash

After Tucker Carlson and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) duked it out over foreign policy on the pundit's podcast, the Texas Republican is trying to get the last laugh. Following news of the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Cruz wrote on X: "Bravo, Mr. President! It turns out (as I argued at length), that Tucker was wrong, and President Trump was RIGHT!"