President Trump is hours away from what he hopes will be Senate passage of the biggest legislative victory of his term, even as hurdles loom.
The final vote will be a nail-biter.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), targeted by Trump in his primary because of his dug-in opposition, criticized his party's bill and Senate partisanship on Sunday before announcing he will not seek reelection next year.
The president, who backs competing Senate and House versions, has wooed and pressured GOP lawmakers for months to extend expiring 2017 tax cuts and increase defense and immigration spending this year as the playbook for 2026 midterm victories.
But some of the policies in the 940-page bill and its price tag worry some House and Senate conservatives. Democrats are united against it.
The marathon Senate process to consider amendments to the bill, known as vote-a-rama, begins at 9 a.m. and is expected to stretch well into the afternoon or evening. It's unclear when senators could hold a final vote.
If it clears the upper chamber, the legislation would then need to pass several procedural steps in the House before coming up for a vote. GOP leaders say a House vote could begin as early as Wednesday morning.
"ONE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, is moving along nicely! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" Trump posted on Truth Social after 2 a.m. ET.
All eyes will be on a handful of GOP senators who can make or break the bill.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said Saturday he resolved his Medicaid worries and supports the Senate version of the legislation. Joined by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the last three holdouts — Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) — secured a commitment from Republican leaders to back a proposal from Scott to reduce the rate at which the federal government reimburses states that have expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act for new enrollees, according to Johnson.
"We just have their commitment that they're going to do everything in their power to make sure this passes," Johnson said, according to The Washington Post.
But such a provision could threaten the support of GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), who have their own concerns about Medicaid changes. Murkowski is under pressure from lawmakers in her state to reject the bill.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who asserts his party is on the wrong path with a package estimated to raise the debt by $4 trillion over a decade, has said he opposes the measure.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has a three-vote margin and is eager to keep his GOP colleagues in line after Saturday's arm-twistingly narrow 51-49 vote to proceed.
Trump wants to sign a measure into law by Friday, July 4.
Republicans in both chambers have battled for months over their promises to constituents and misgivings about slashing Medicaid.
Tillis warned his Senate colleagues that cutting Medicaid will hurt red states and come back to bite GOP candidates in next year's midterms, wielding detailed data and charts to make this case. The approximately $800 billion in federal spending cuts to Medicaid are intended to help offset the price of extending tax cuts, which are estimated to add trillions of dollars to the federal debt.
▪ North Carolina newsline: Here's who is and isn't running for Tillis's seat as of Sunday.
MAGIC ASTERISKS: GOP senators have charged forward with a controversial accounting measure for the tax portion of the bill, as Democrats accuse them of fanciful budget math.
The GOP favors an accounting move called "current policy" to assert that the expensive 2017 tax cuts, now in effect, should not count as additional spending when extended, even though those tax breaks are set to expire at the end of the year.
Republicans want Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to determine the baseline, effectively circumventing the Senate parliamentarian, who determines what can proceed through the special budgetary rules Republicans are using to avoid a Democratic filibuster.
▪ The Hill: Senate Republicans declined Sunday to meet with the parliamentarian on whether the Trump tax cuts add to annual deficits.
Senate Republicans maintain that Democrats have done the same in the past while in the majority, while Democrats argue Republicans are using the accounting move in a way never before used.
"The only way for Republicans to pass this horribly destructive bill, which is based on budget math as fake as Donald Trump's tan, was to go nuclear and hide it behind a bunch of procedural jargon," Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.), the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement late Sunday.
Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and a former Budget Committee chair, also blasted her GOP colleagues during a weekend floor speech, arguing "current policy" math is a gambit to mask the costs of tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, which add trillions of dollars to projected deficits.
▪ The Hill: CBO says tax piece of GOP megabill could violate Senate Byrd Rule
▪ The Associated Press: Republican Senate tax bill would add $3.3 trillion to the US debt load, CBO says
From the sidelines, former Department of Government Efficiency chief Elon Musk, who broke with Trump in the spring, blasted Senate Republicans for slashing alternative energy incentives from the Senate measure as it heads to a final vote.
The billionaire Tesla CEO said the Senate's approach "will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!" He called it "utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future."
Meanwhile, GOP senators reached a Sunday agreement to change a provision in the Senate measure that originally would have barred for 10 years state legislation over artificial intelligence (AI).
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