| 2020 CAMPAIGN: With roughly 16 months until Election Day, multiple factors should give the president a sense of optimism as his reelection bid gains steam, even as he faces negative polling against potential Democratic challengers. As Ian Swanson, Sylvan Lane and Julia Manchester write, a number of things are going Trump’s way, leaving him better positioned for victory in a second term — namely, a strong economy that is showing little sign of slowing down, the burgeoning and divisive Democratic presidential primary, and the financial edge he is likely to have next year as Democrats wrap up their primary contest. On the economic side, Trump has been the recipient of strong economic numbers throughout his 2 ½ years in office, including a 3.7 percent unemployment rate, the second-lowest figure recorded in nearly 50 years, and a gain of 224,000 jobs in the economy in June. Additionally, wages ticked up last month and the stock market remains strong as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record. “We have very good pro-growth policies, low taxes, deregulation, opening energy, trade reform," top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow recently told Bloomberg TV. "I think the incentives of our supply-side policies are working." Trump clearly continues to see former Vice President Joe Biden as a formidable opponent and has not ceased attacking him whenever he can. Most recently, Trump tweeted about Biden’s work with segregationists and plan to reverse the Republican tax cuts passed into law in late 2017. However, Biden has stumbled lately and has seen his poll numbers dip, giving Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) an opening. Both are more progressive than Biden, something Republicans would welcome. Financially, the president holds a major advantage over the eventual Democratic nominee. In the second fundraising quarter, Trump’s reelection bid and the Republican National Committee raised $105 million. By contrast, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg raised nearly $25 million, pacing the Democratic field. Additionally, Trump’s approval numbers have reached some of the highest points of his presidency, although they consistently remain below 50 percent, considered by political scientists to be a warning sign for past incumbents who sought second terms. According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 47 percent of registered voters approve of Trump, the highest number the poll has produced. The most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls puts Trump’s approval figure at 45 percent, the second-highest since his inauguration. One potential speed bump cropped up once again on Sunday, however. Days after he announced his departure from the Republican Party, Rep. Justin Amash (Mich.) declined once again to rule out a third party run for president in 2020, a possibility that could create headaches for the president’s reelection efforts. "I still wouldn't rule anything like that out. I believe that I have to use my skills, my public influence, where it serves the country best. And I believe I have to defend the Constitution in whichever way works best," he told CNN’s “State of the Union”
Most notably, Amash could hurt the president in Michigan, where Trump won in 2016 by less than 11,000 votes over Hillary Clinton and has little margin for error. However, Amash has said in recent months that if he runs, he would not do so as a spoiler. The Washington Post: Aided by a strong economy, Trump approval rises, but a majority also see him as “unpresidential.” The Hill: Lawmakers return as Amash fallout looms. National Review: Could Amash cost Trump reelection? 
© Getty Images > With the first debates in the rearview mirror, a new batch of presidential rankings are out, and there’s a new leader in the clubhouse. After a strong June, capped off by a rise in the polls and a strong debate performance, Warren has leapfrogged Biden, with Harris trailing the two. As Niall Stanage writes, Warren is not leading in any national polls. But she’s ascending and her message on the stump is resonating. The Massachusetts senator also appears to be on the brink of supplanting Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as the standard-bearer of the left — a development that could fundamentally reshape the race. Despite his continued lead in polls nationally and in primary polls, Biden slipped one spot, largely because of the Miami debate and the problems that have emerged since his battle onstage with Harris. The focus on race and school busing eroded his support among black voters. It raised grave questions about whether he would be the strongest candidate against Trump — a rationale for his candidacy. It also stoked concerns on the sensitive issue of his age at 76. As for Harris, the debate was the fuel she needed to climb into the top tier of the primary battle. It boosted her profile and popularity among voters of color, whose support will be vital if she is to prevail, and put her candidacy in the headlines for days. > Drop-out Watch?: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) announced early Monday that he will hold a press conference from his campaign headquarters in Dublin, Calif., at 4 p.m. EST. While most 2020 candidates campaigned during the July Fourth holiday, Swalwell canceled two days of events in New Hampshire, stoking chatter that he could be the first 2020 Democrat to exit the race. During recent television appearances, Swalwell has tried to explain his low standing in recent polls. The New York Times: Warren and Harris rise in Democratic primary, challenging male front-runners. The Associated Press: Buttigieg has money, but can he turn it into 2020 win? The Atlantic: Tom Steyer is telling allies he’s running for president. The Hill: 2020 Democrats vow to get tough on lobbyists. The Associated Press: John Hickenlooper: Vast majority of campaign’s problem “was me.” Politico: “Members are looking over their shoulders”: Democrats spooked by new primary threats. | 
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