2020 POLITICS: Trump entered his second week of waging a partisan and bitter public battle with four female Democratic lawmakers he urged to "go back" to their home countries, although only one, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, was born outside the United States. After initially retreating a few yards last week when congressional Republicans expressed political misgivings about a North Carolina crowd that chanted "send her back" during his rally in Greenville, the president resumed his assault on the four Democrats, arguing they "hate" the United States and advocate extreme socialist views, not constructive dissent. Putting aside questions about the president's views of race in America (Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina defended Trump last week as a "narcissist," not a racist), the political conundrum remains whether Trump's toxic dismissal — "go back" — aimed at young women of color in Congress helps or hurts his campaign and what effect it may have on fellow Republicans on the ballot next year. Rebuked, condemned, shushed and praised during a rollicking week, Trump decided once again to use a blowtorch on Sunday. "I don't think the four Congresswomen are capable of loving our country," he tweeted before enjoying some golf in steamy New Jersey. "They should apologize to America (and Israel) for the horrible (hateful) things they have said." The New York Times: Trump sets the terms on racial division. Do Democrats know what to do? There are typically two yardsticks for incumbent presidents in any reelection cycle. First, how do voters feel about how the economy affects them, and second, does the president enjoy job approval numbers above 50 percent? Trump has never sustained job numbers above the mid-to-high 40s, which is why Republican candidates wish he'd talk in mantra-like loops about the economy. Reid Wilson reports that the size of Trump's voter base may be smaller than it appears because it may lean heavily on Americans doing particularly well financially rather than those doing just slightly better or still struggling after his administration's nearly three years in office. But Trump maintains the economy is stronger than it's ever been and that more Americans are sharing in the prosperity, strengthening his chances for reelection. His campaign is tending to the states and districts he won in 2016, hoping to ward off any inroads by Democratic challengers while playing in states where he might need some Electoral College insurance. The New York Times reports that if Trump locked in modest improvement in his job approval rating, combined with a strong economy next year, he could lose the popular vote by a larger margin than he did in 2016 and still be able to hold the White House against a Democratic nominee. "It is even possible that Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points," according to the Times. All of the Electoral College math makes Democrats lose sleep as progressives butt heads with moderates in an attempt to identify a winning formula for the White House in 2020. Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary next year, a CBS News poll released on Sunday found former Vice President Joe Biden ahead by 7 points (The Hill), but the interesting takeaway was that Biden's lead in early states is shrinking among an increasingly competitive top tier of contenders (The Hill). See the CBS Battleground Tracker poll HERE. By the numbers: Democratic delegate race tightens (CBS News). Most Americans disagree with Trump's tweets (CBS News). Democrats in the early primary states say health care should be the dominant issue in the contest (CBS News). 
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The Atlantic took a deep-dive look at the presidential campaign waged by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and concluded she's the candidate who is leaning into a "new movement" for the Democratic party in 2020. As voters in early states say they want to learn what Democratic candidates propose on health care coverage, many indicate they want to hear more policy specifics from Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). Unclear, waffling, a political opportunist? Jonathan Easley and Max Greenwood report that Harris is being pressured to locate her core and explain it (The Hill). Democratic presidential candidate Julián Castro of Texas, a former secretary of Housing and Urban Development and former mayor of San Antonio, carved out a place for himself in the packed Democratic field by making border and immigration issues his calling card (The Hill). > 2020 Senate: Amy McGrath, Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer's (D-N.Y.) prize recruit to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), faces competition for the nomination following her rocky campaign launch last week. A number of Democrats are thinking about getting into the marquee race (The Hill). > Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló sparked an outcry on Sunday, one that is expected to lead to mass demonstrations today on the island (The Associated Press). Via Facebook, the governor announced that he will not seek reelection but will not resign following a controversy over a leaked and obscenity-laced online chat. The governor tried to shrug off an impeachment process, whose preliminary stages have begun in Puerto Rico's legislature. In the chat, Roselló and his top advisers insulted women and mocked constituents, including victims of Hurricane Maria (The Associated Press). *** THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continued their running dialogue over the weekend as the two near a deal to raise the spending caps and the debt ceiling by the week's end and before the House breaks for the annual August recess on Friday. Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke on Saturday afternoon for about 15 minutes, following up on Friday's call, as they near an agreement. As The Washington Post's Damien Paletta and Erica Werner reported Sunday night: "White House and congressional negotiators rushing to hammer out the final details of a sweeping budget and debt deal are unlikely to include many — if any — actual spending cuts, even as the debt limit is lifted for two years, people familiar with the talks said. The agreement appeared likely to mark a retreat for White House officials who had demanded major spending cuts in exchange for a new budget deal. But the process remained in limbo while negotiators awaited final approval late Sunday from President Trump. The pending deal would seek to extend the debt ceiling and set new spending levels for two years, ratcheting back the budget brinkmanship that led to a record-long government shutdown earlier this year. But instead of the $150 billion in new spending cuts recently demanded by White House acting budget director Russell Vought, the agreement would include a significantly lower amount of reductions. And those reductions aren't expected to represent actual spending cuts, in part because most would take place in future years and likely be reversed by Congress at a later date. A precise figure could not be learned. Details remained fluid and subject to change, according to the people describing the talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to reveal details. In practical terms, the budget agreement would increase spending by tens of billions of dollars in the next two years, a stark reversal from the White House's budget request several months ago that sought to slash spending at many agencies starting in October." Although lawmakers questioned whether any deal would work given the president's recalcitrance in past negotiations, the likelihood of a deal received a boost from Trump on Friday when he told reporters that talks are in "good shape," adding that the debt ceiling is a "sacred element" that should not be messed with. "I can't imagine anybody ever even thinking of using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge. I would have to assume we're in great shape," Trump said. The Wall Street Journal: Debt ceiling and spending negotiations split Republicans. 
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> 9/11 fund: The Senate is expected to vote overwhelmingly to extend the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund on Tuesday despite a speed bump last week when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) blocked passage of the bill. Along with the House package that passed by a 402-12 vote, which would reauthorize funding until 2090, the Senate is expected to vote on two amendments to the bill, one from Paul and the other from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). The Utah Republican's amendment would authorize $10.2 billion for the fund over the next 10 years. As for Paul, his amendment is expected to offer a way to pay for the House bill. Paul blocked passage of the fund's extension on Wednesday as he sought a vote on his amendment. McConnell previously vowed that he would bring the House's legislation for a vote before senators leave on August 2 for August recess. The fund's extension has been championed by comedian Jon Stewart, who has appeared on Capitol Hill multiple times in support of its passage (The Hill). NBC News: The one Democrat who can get Trump's state taxes doesn't want to. That's infuriated the left. Politico: Democrats weigh vengeance on Republicans over judges. | 
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