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MORNING REPORT

PRESENTED BY PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL

Wednesday, October 12

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Biden: Putin `miscalculated' in Ukraine; US has not

For the United States and global allies, backing Ukraine "for as long as it takes" continues to present tradeoffs.

Vows to supply more weapons systems and air defenses come with practical considerations, assessments of risk and reevaluations of how Russia's war with its neighbor might eventually end.

NATO nations have committed to send Ukraine billions of dollars in sophisticated Western weapons — including about $17 billion from the United States alone. But old, surplus Russian-style weapons are in vogue because Ukrainian troops know how to use them without extra training. To find those weapons, the United States and other allies are scouring the globe, looking for suppliers attracted to the cause or to their newfound leverage as weapons dealers with the U.S. and the West. Cyprus may be one example, The New York Times reports. Quiet U.S. offers to Cyprus to gather up its Russian wares and replace the old with the new worry Turkey. For every action, there is a reaction.

President Biden, during a CNN interview broadcast on Tuesday, said Russian President Vladimir Putin "totally miscalculated" when invading Ukraine and could opt to end the brutal war by pulling Russia's military out, explaining to the Russian people that goals were accomplished and still "hold his position in Russia."

I don't know what's in his mind," Biden told Jake Tapper.

The president said he had no plans to meet with Putin during the Group of 20 summit next month in Bali, but suggested lines of communication are open depending on what the Russian president might want to discuss (The Hill). With counterparts in the G-7, Biden said the West's approach is unified: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."

A Western official who met with Putin on Tuesday, International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi, emphasized a major problem facing Ukraine at the moment: Europe's largest nuclear power plant, which is surrounded by Russian troops, has lost all external power needed for vital safety systems for the second time in five days. The plant's power for nuclear safety equipment is coming from backup diesel generators (The Associated Press).

The Pentagon will soon deliver two advanced NASAM anti-aircraft systems, which Kyiv has long sought to provide medium- to long-range defense against missile attacks. In a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday, Biden said the United States will "continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems," the White House said.

Zelensky told Biden and other the leaders from Group of Seven nations during a virtual meeting on Tuesday that Russia this week fired more than 100 missiles and dozens of drones at Ukraine, which he said underscored that his country needs "more modern and effective" air defenses. No one is disputing his assessment. Zelensky will speak virtually today to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank about Ukraine's financial needs. Separately in Brussels today, defense and military leaders from 50 countries are meeting to discuss bolstering security assistance to Ukraine (The New York Times).

The Hill: House Republicans to date have largely supported U.S. assistance to Ukraine, but some in the party are opposed to more without additional oversight. If the GOP captures the House majority next year, Biden's largely unquestioned leeway when it comes to arming Ukraine will run into additional scrutiny.

Congress is out of Washington until mid-November, but lawmakers are showcasing their misgivings about a range of international policies, including with Saudi Arabia and China. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is unhappy with Riyadh's backing of Russian oil and its decision within OPEC to produce less petroleum, which hurts Europe and the U.S. and boosts Moscow's coffers. Menendez this week called for a freeze on the U.S.-Saudi alliance.

The White House was quick to say the president wants to work with Congress to reevaluate Washington's ties to the Saudis (The New York Times). Biden told CNN "there are going to be some consequences" for Saudi Arabia because of its alliance with Russia, but he declined to say what he has in mind, and said he would consult members of Congress in November (The Hill).

In the meantime, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) questioned the wisdom of trying to freeze relations with Saudi Arabia. "You will see Saudi Arabia turn more and more to Russia and China," he said on Tuesday. "And how does that play out in terms of meeting our interests? So, it's a lot more complicated than just saying, you know, `We don't like Saudi Arabia, and therefore we're cutting it off,' and everything will be fine from there" (The Hill).

The Hill: Momentum in Congress is building behind legislation known as "NOPEC," intended to respond to petroleum production cuts announced by OPEC.

The New York Times: Germany delivered to Ukraine the first of four ultramodern Iris-T SLM air defense systems valued at $136 million and designed to protect population centers. Even Germany does not own one.
The New York Times: Russia today announced the arrests of eight suspects in Saturday's bombing of the bridge between Russia and Crimea, including five Russian citizens.
The Hill: How latest strikes show Putin will stick with Russia's hawks on Ukraine war.
CNN: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen slammed Moscow officials on Tuesday during a joint meeting with the Russian finance minister.
The Hill: Recession anxieties abroad, inflation fighters in U.S.
The Hill: Biden says "slight" recession possible but does not anticipate one.

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Leading the Day

➤ POLITICS

There are 27 days until the midterm elections.

"When it comes to electing the next Congress, it's not a referendum; it's a choice between two different ways of looking at our country. Democrats got a lot done. We have so much more to do," Biden said Tuesday during a virtual fundraiser while describing the stakes. "We cannot afford to lose our majority in the House, and we have to increase our majority in the Senate."

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) on Tuesday spoke with NBC News's Dasha Burns about recovering from a stroke while on the campaign trail. Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in May, said he still struggles to understand what he hears and to speak clearly.

His opponent, former TV doctor and Republican Mehmet Oz, has focused much of his campaign strategy on attacking Fetterman's health — and his implied unfitness for office. But it hasn't been enough to put Oz in the lead in any major polls. Fetterman has a 3.7 percentage point lead over Oz, smaller than the double-digit lead he had when Oz first won his primary, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. But Fetterman, who now uses closed captioning to better understand spoken communication, said he's confident about his ability to assume office if he wins in November.

"I don't think it's going to have an impact," Fetterman said. "I feel like I'm gonna get better and better — every day. And by January, I'm going [to] be, you know, much better. And Dr. Oz is still going to be a fraud."

CNBC: Biden to host fundraiser with Fetterman in Philadelphia as Senate race with Oz tightens.
NPR: Key Senate races tighten with a flood of GOP ad spending.

Meanwhile, in the Peach State, voters could expect a familiar scenario in November: a Senate runoff election. As The Hill's Max Greenwood writes, even allegations that Republican nominee Herschel Walker paid for his then-girlfriend's abortion over a decade ago haven't tipped polling definitively in his opponent's favor. According to a Tuesday Emerson College poll, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is leading with 48 percent of voters' support, but Walker is close behind at 46 percent (The Hill).

With neither candidate breaking the 50 percent threshold, both parties must confront the possibility that the fight for Senate control could head into overtime, leaving the chamber's majority hanging in the balance for weeks after Election Day.

The Washington Post: Woman says she had to press Walker to pay for abortion he wanted.
The New York Times: Groups saturate TV with negative ads about Warnock and Walker.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Top Republicans frame vote for Walker as vote against Biden.

GOP candidates across the country are getting direct financial support from former President Trump, who has finally dipped into his financial reserves, writes The Hill's Al Weaver. Trump has spent at least $5 million on candidates in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Arizona in recent weeks after facing pressure from his own party to contribute funds.

But some worry that the former president's efforts may be too little too late. With only four weeks until election day, the GOP is being handily outspent in several states as Republicans wage a multifront fight to end their congressional minority.

The Hill: Biden: "I believe I can beat Donald Trump again."
The Washington Post: How Trump's legal expenses consumed GOP donor money.
Politico: Republicans are chasing key governorships. There's one big thing missing — TV ads.
Politico: Retiring Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) endorses Dems in major governor, secretary of state races.
The New York Times: Dozens of candidates of color are giving House Republicans a path to diversity.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have been on different wavelengths — if not different planets, entirely — for most of the past two years, raising questions about how they will work together if Republicans win back the House, writes The Hill's Alexander Bolton.

CNN's Manu Raju on Friday interviewed McConnell, who noted he has sufficient support locked up among his GOP colleagues to make history in the next Congress as the longest-serving Senate leader. "I have the votes," he said.

After New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) declared a state of emergency over migrants being bused there from border states, saying the demand being put on the city to provide housing and other assistance is "not sustainable," Republican lawmakers are calling on Biden to solve the issue (USA Today).

"The mayor rightfully indicated that this is an 'unsustainable manufactured crisis' but failed to tell New Yorkers that it was singlehandedly manufactured by President Biden who unraveled policies that were in place when he took office that stemmed the flow of illegal immigration and brought order to the asylum process," Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said in a Saturday statement.

The New York Times: The origins of the GOP tactic of sending migrants to blue states.

Biden on Tuesday urged all the Los Angeles City Council members caught on tape making racist remarks to resign (The Hill).

"The president is glad to see that one of the participants in that conversation has resigned, but they all should," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday, calling the language recorded during the conversation "unacceptable" and "appalling."

The White House's comments follow Nury Martinez's announcement that she would take a leave of absence from the council, after she stepped down Monday from her post as president. Martinez and two other colleagues were surreptitiously caught on a recording making racist comments and denigrating colleagues (The Los Angeles Times).

The Los Angeles Times: Protests, anger, tears roil L.A. City Council meeting over leaked racist recordings.
Politico: Los Angeles staggers under cascade of scandals.

In Focus / Sharp Takes

➤ SUPREME COURT

The Supreme Court denied an appeal Tuesday by Charleston, S.C., church shooter Dylann Roof, leaving in place his death sentence for the 2015 shooting deaths of nine Black congregants (The Hill).

Justices on Tuesday also declined to decide whether fetuses are entitled to constitutional personhood rights in light of the court's June ruling turning abortion legal decisions over to the states. The high court turned away an appeal by a Catholic group and two Rhode Island women who sought to challenge a 2019 state law that codified the right to abortion in line with the 1973 Roe v. Wade landmark ruling, no longer in place (Reuters).

The Hill: Justice Department asks SCOTUS to reject Trump plea for intervention on special master.
Reuters: U.S. Supreme Court rebuffs challenge to police qualified immunity defense.

Content from our sponsor: Philip Morris International

Philip Morris International is committed to ending smoking in the U.S., but we can't do it alone. All relevant parties must work together to achieve our collective goal. Learn how.

Opinion

The one thing that can save Herschel Walker, by Joshua Green, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3EQri7h
What the approaching GOP majority can deliver in Congress, by Hugh Hewitt, contributing columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3TdRIUh
A conservative Supreme Court could still surprise us, by Elizabeth Wydra, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3g35afz

Where and When

👉 INVITATION today at 1 p.m. ET, The Hill's insider virtual discussion, "Midterms: The Final Countdown," with Bob Cusack, The Hill's editor-in-chief, and Al Weaver, Senate reporter. Register (free) HERE. Participants are welcome to pose questions in advance.

The House meets at 11:30 a.m. on Friday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14.

The Senate convenes Friday at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.

The president receives the President's Daily Brief at 8:30 a.m. Biden will travel to Vail, Colo., to speak at 1:30 p.m. MT about protecting some of America's outdoor spaces. Biden will depart Colorado and fly to Los Angeles and then Santa Monica, Calif., where he will remain overnight.

Vice President Harris will talk with local radio stations in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin ahead of midterm contests to describe federal investments the administration, along with Congress, are making in specific communities.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with members of the Foreign Affairs Policy Board at the Department of State at 9 a.m. The secretary at 7 p.m. will host the Foundation for Art and Preservation in Embassies reception and dinner.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will represent the United States at the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action ministerial. The secretary will participate in the second ministerial roundtable discussion for Ukraine support at 1:45 p.m. with opening session remarks. Yellen will speak at 3:45 p.m. during a fireside chat at the Bretton Woods Committee's International Council. The secretary will participate this evening in a working dinner among finance ministers and central bank governors from Group of 20 nations.

First lady Jill Biden will fly to Nashville this morning and visit a COVID-19 vaccination clinic at noon at St. James Missionary Baptist Church. She will speak at a Democratic National Committee event in the city at 1:15 p.m. before leaving Tennessee to fly to Milwaukee. In Wisconsin at 5 p.m. CT, the first lady will speak to the Milwaukee Teachers' Education Association of the National Education Association at Washington Park Senior Center. A half-hour later, she will visit students, parents and educators at a Milwaukee Public Schools' "Homework Diner" at Westside Academy in Milwaukee.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will speak at 2 p.m. about Biden's international strategy during an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security and the Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service in Washington. Information is HERE.

Elsewhere

➤ BUSINESS, CONSUMERS, COSTS

A new Labor Department proposal, unveiled Tuesday, would make it more likely for millions of home-care and construction workers, janitors and gig drivers to be classified as employees instead of independent contractors.

The reclassification would give the workers access to benefits and protections not awarded to contractors, such as minimum wage pay and overtime. The proposal would deal a blow to companies such as Uber and Lyft, which have worked hard to maintain their workers' status as contractors, not employees (The New York Times).

Retailers are mounting a last-ditch push for a bill to crack down on credit card swipe fees charged by Visa and MasterCard, writes The Hill's Karl Evers-Hillstrom. They aim to slip the legislation into the National Defense Authorization Act, which senators are meeting to discuss this week, prompting alarm from financial services giants that say the effort would upend Americans' credit card rewards.

Business Insider: The Credit Card Competition Act of 2022 is good for veterans but bad for credit card rewards.

Renters are feeling pressure from rising mortgage rates, writes The Hill's Adam Barnes, as would-be first-time home buyers are being priced out of the housing market and pushed back into renting. This added demographic is further straining an already supply-crunched rental market experiencing low vacancy rates and price increases well above pre-pandemic levels.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

The Biden administration is racing against the clock to persuade more Americans to get the updated COVID-19 booster shots before winter temperatures set in and more people stay indoors — leading to a possible surge in cases and deaths.

Its efforts are being hindered by confusion over the vaccine, declining case numbers and pandemic fatigue. Politico reports that as of the end of last week, the administration expected only between 13 and 15 million of the 283.4 million Americans aged 12 and up will have gotten the booster shot. Information about COVID-19 vaccines, including the new boosters, can be found HERE.

While scientists in the U.S. don't see as many definitive signs of a winter surge as they have in years past, new COVID-19 variants found in other countries could pose a greater risk if they spread to North America (The Boston Globe).

"Right now, we don't have any signs that this will happen," said Cécile Viboud, an epidemiologist at the Fogarty International Center at the National Institutes of Health. But she said the possibility can't be excluded and "we shouldn't let our guard down."

Nature: Emerging variants and waning immunity are likely to push infection rates higher in the Northern Hemisphere as influenza also makes a comeback.
Fortune: What is XBB? The new "immune-evasive" COVID-19 strain that combines omicron variants is driving cases in Bangladesh and Singapore.

D.C. public schools will enforce a neglected policy requiring enrolled students to be up to date on vaccinations starting Tuesday. Experts estimate a quarter of the city's school-age population is still behind on required shots (The Washington Post).

The New York Times: As hospitals close children's units because adult hospital beds are more lucrative, where does that leave pediatric patients?
The Hill: New rule opens ObamaCare subsidies to more families seeking coverage.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,063,338. Current average U.S. COVID-19 daily deaths are 338, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Closer

And finally … 🐕 Your dog thinks you smell upset. And she's right.

Dogs are able to smell the changes in human breath and sweat and identify key chemical odors people emit when they feel anxious, according to a new study from Queen's University of Belfast in Northern Ireland (The Washington Post).

The study's findings provide "deeper knowledge of the human-dog relationship and adds to our understanding of how dogs perceive and interact with human psychological states," said Clara Wilson, a doctoral student and co-author of the study.

While dogs have long been trained to use their sense of smell to detect everything from explosives to illnesses and controlled substances, Wilson said it's exciting to see that our furry friends can "smell other parts of the human experience."

The study adds to a growing amount of research on dog behavior and the positive impacts our four-legged companions can have on our everyday lives. Trained dogs can assist those recovering from trauma or individuals managing anxiety and depression, and the knowledge that dogs can smell human stress could prove valuable in training service and therapy dogs, researchers said.