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MORNING REPORT

Thursday, October 12

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Will Scalise get to 217?

House Republicans on Wednesday nominated Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) to be the next Speaker, sending his candidacy to the House floor amid a backdrop of internal division, congressional paralysis and international crisis.

A week after Rep. Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) stunning ouster, Scalise secured the nomination by a vote of 113-99 in a closed-door GOP conference meeting, defeating House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in a close race that did not have a clear frontrunner.

The 58-year-old Louisianan is a longtime member of House leadership who sits to the ideological right of the GOP center. His tenure has been marked by an often-icy relationship with McCarthy and personal battles on and off the floor. Scalise was shot during a congressional baseball practice in 2017 and recovered after intense medical care. This year, he was diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a form of blood cancer.

I've got a long history of bringing people together, uniting Republicans, focusing on the issues that we've got to do to address the issues we came here to do to get our country back on track," Scalise told Fox Business in an interview Tuesday.

Now, Scalise must prevail on the House floor, where he'll need at least 217 lawmakers to support his candidacy. With a slim Republican majority — and Democrats expected to nominate Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to the post, as they did during January's Speakership elections — the House's second-ranking Republican faces an uphill battle.  

At least six lawmakers announced Wednesday they wouldn't support Scalise's candidacy, all but guaranteeing the chamber could face another protracted Speaker vote akin to McCarthy's 15-ballot ordeal at the start of the year. Others, like Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) told reporters "I just don't think Steve's got the votes," despite voting for him during the closed-door meeting. Jordan, however, said he offered to deliver a nominating speech on Scalise's behalf (The Hill and Politico).

There has been speculation that Jordan could be offered the majority leader post — even though other GOP members are already jockeying for that leadership job. Regardless, would Jordan want to be Scalise's deputy and give up his Judiciary Committee gavel? Remember: Jordan rejected the House GOP bill that kept the government open late last month while Scalise backed it. 

The Hill: Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) are among the pro-Jordan holdouts.
The Hill: CNN's Jake Tapper to Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), a Jordan supporter: "Name one Democrat who trusts Jim Jordan."
Vox: How Congress stumbled on the worst combination of representative government.

Scalise, who pitched himself as a unity candidate who can bring together the House GOP conference, will be tested today. Any Republican Speaker is challenged to navigate the same dynamics that made the party ungovernable under McCarthy. A small faction of House Republican renegades balk at compromise with Democrats who control the Senate and the White House and they offer varying definitions of leadership they want to see from a Speaker (The New York Times).

IF HE GETS THE JOB, SCALISE INHERITS a race against the shutdown clock from his predecessor. Lawmakers have until Nov. 17 to fund the government or risk another shutdown, and multiple members, including Scalise, have said in recent days that Congress may need to once again rely on a stopgap spending bill to keep the lights on.

Politico: The Senate is a problem in the Israel crisis. Democrats are fed up.

There's also the question of congressional aid to Ukraine and Israel, where attacks by the militant group Hamas reached a flashpoint this week. NBC News reports that administration officials have privately told lawmakers that the White House is preparing a supplemental funding request to submit to Congress that includes money for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and U.S. border security.

President Biden said Tuesday that "when Congress returns, we're going to ask them to take urgent action to fund the national security requirements of our critical partners."

ALSO ON THE TABLE: Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Wednesday unveiled legislation to immediately freeze $6 billion in Iranian funds that have been held in South Korea but are due to flow back to Iran because of a prisoner exchange deal with the United States. 

The Biden administration last month finalized a deal to grant a waiver to allow Iran to recoup $6 billion in assets that had been stuck in South Korea in exchange for the release of five American prisoners. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) — one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats — on Wednesday also urged the Biden administration to freeze the assets over the country's support for Hamas amid the ongoing attacks against Israel.

In The Memo, The Hill's Niall Stanage breaks down what to know about the deal that's suddenly back in the spotlight.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

A U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in South Korea as North Korea's Kim Jong Un exchanges messages with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) faces 10 new criminal charges, New York House Republicans will introduce a measure to expel him from the legislative body, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.) announced Wednesday. 
Another strong earthquake shook western Afghanistan on Wednesday morning after an earlier one killed more than 2,000 people and flattened whole villages over the weekend.

Leading the Day

ADMINISTRATION & INTERNATIONAL

Israel's military — intent on vengeance aimed at terror group Hamas — continues today to bomb Gaza, now closed off and without power. The death toll by Wednesday on both sides rose to 2,300. At least 22 of the dead are Americans and that number is expected to rise. The administration says 17 U.S. citizens are unaccounted for. Israel says 97 of its countrymen are Hamas hostages.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, the leader of an opposition political alliance, formed a unity "war management cabinet" Wednesday in preparation for a ferocious, U.S.-sanctioned ground operation. Fears of a widening war in the Middle East are rising.

"EVERY HAMAS MEMBER IS A DEAD MAN," Netanyahu vowed during an evening address with Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Echoing a comparison made by Biden on Tuesday, the prime minister said, "Hamas is ISIS, and we will crush and eliminate it just as the world crushed and eliminated ISIS."

The goal of eliminating Hamas has no clear timeline or roadmap, reports The Hill's Laura Kelly. Israeli officials and regional experts envision at least a months-long Israeli military campaign.  

While describing horrific details of Hamas murders of civilians as well as Israeli soldiers, Netanyahu did not outline specifics of the retaliatory response he asserts will eradicate Hamas from the Gaza Strip, the territory with a population of 2.3 million Palestinians on land about 6 miles wide and 25 miles long.

Politico Magazine: Israel's excruciating hostage dilemma.
CNN: Behind efforts to rescue American hostages from one of the most dangerous places on Earth.

Biden, who spoke again with Netanyahu on Wednesday, dropped by a White House meeting with Jewish leaders and repeated his message of U.S. solidarity with Israel.

"HATE NEVER GOES AWAY," he told the visitors. "I used to think you could defeat hate, but it only goes underground."

The president said the administration is focused on the U.S. hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. The number may be five or fewer, according to the White House. "I have not given up hope of bringing these folks home," Biden said.

The FBI has personnel on the ground in Israel. Members of the Delta Force and SEAL Team Six are reported to be assisting Israel Defense Forces to try to locate and attempt to extract U.S. and other hostages. Such missions pose high risks in light of Hamas's threats to kill hostages, estimated to total between 100 to 150 and presumed to be held in multiple locations.

Reuters: Eleven workers with the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency have been killed in Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip since Saturday, and five members of the international Red Cross and Red Crescent have also been killed.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv today, telling reporters en route that he will meet today with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials for discussions to include the U.S. hostages, whose exact number is an estimate. The secretary is accompanied by Deputy Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs Steve Gillen.

NewsNation exclusive: Californian Lee Sasi said in an interview that she attended the music festival near Gaza on Saturday when Hamas attacked. She said she escaped to a nearby bomb shelter with about 30 other people and survived by hiding for hours under a pile of the dead before her rescue. Her uncle was killed by a Hamas grenade, her cousin's husband was shot and killed and Hamas kidnapped her pregnant cousin, she said.

Where and When

The House convenes at noon.

The Senate, which is out this week, holds a pro forma session at 9:15 a.m. on Friday. 

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will meet at 4:30 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room with a select group of CEOs to discuss economic policies.                               

Vice President Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff will travel to Las Vegas to continue the vice president's "Fight for Our Freedoms" tour at the College of Southern Nevada's North Las Vegas campus. Emhoff will attend the moderated conversation scheduled at 12:45 p.m. PT, after which the couple will depart Nevada for Los Angeles at 3:35 p.m. PT. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Marrakech, Morocco, where she is participating in annual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. She attended a World Bank Development Committee plenary meeting at 4:45 a.m. ET, focused on multilateral development banks. She will join a roundtable discussion about global sovereign debt at noon ET. Yellen will join finance ministers and central bank governors from Group of 20 nations for a working dinner at 1:30 p.m. ET. 

First lady Jill Biden will mark Italian American Heritage Month with a 5 p.m. White House reception.

Economic indicator: The Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. will release the Consumer Price Index and real earnings report, both for September. The Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. will report on claims for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending Oct. 7. 

The Social Security cost of living increase for 2024 will be announced at 8:30 a.m. ET. Because of inflation, the Social Security COLA was 8.7 percent for beneficiaries this year. The adjustment for the year ahead is expected to be in the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range. 

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m.

Capitol Hill Staffer Spotlight

The Hill is partnering with the CNCT app to highlight profiles of staffers on Capitol Hill and elsewhere in politics:

Today's spotlight — From winning PAC-12 Championships as a swimmer to working as a legislative aide in the House, meet Riley Scott.

Zoom In

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS

Abortion opponents have lost every state referendum since Roe v. Wade was overturned. In a month, Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution or be the first to reject an abortion rights measure since the overturning of Roe (Politico).

"Ohio is a classic test market state," Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican seeking the nomination to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) next year, told Politico. "People know that, 'Hey, if my product sells in Ohio, then I can sell it other places.' The same logic applies politically."

Answering any public doubts that the White House incumbent is moving forward with his reelection bid, the Biden campaign kicked off the 2024 filing season with its Nevada Democratic primary paperwork, ahead of an Oct. 16 deadline (NBC News). 

2024 ROUNDUP

The Biden reelection campaign, in a video shared with The Hill, bashed Republican presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) for embracing drug price caps he voted against. 
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who is not seeking reelection, urged an influential group of his onetime campaign donors to help narrow the GOP field to one viable presidential primary challenger to face off against former President Trump, the party's frontrunner.
The Democratic National Committee and the North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit Tuesday against the North Carolina State Board of Elections after a pair of GOP-backed election laws went into effect when the state Legislature voted to override the Democratic governor's veto. 
Kentucky's gubernatorial race next month is expected to be close even as Gov. Andy Beshear (D) maintains a steady lead in polls in his bid for reelection. In a red state, he's facing a challenge from Republican Daniel Cameron, the attorney general.
Virginia Democratic Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine want Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate whether Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's administration violated the Voting Rights Act when it removed from the rolls at least 270 fully qualified Virginia voters.
Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner may have been publicly tight-lipped while working in the White House, but he's talking now. During a nearly four-hour interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, recorded on Oct. 5 and on Monday and released Wednesday, the former presidential adviser on Middle East policy, who is Jewish, accused Biden of being a weak leader and commended his father-in-law's foreign policy, saying, "My hope and prayers are that President Trump is reelected and that he's able to then restore calm and peace and prosperity to the world."

Elsewhere

Courts

In Georgia, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) in writing fired back at House Judiciary Chairman Jordan, who has pressed her for information about her indictment of Trump and her communications with the Justice Department and special counsel Jack Smith (The Hill).

"A charitable explanation of your correspondence is that you are ignorant of the United States and Georgia Constitutions and codes," she wrote in response to a late September letter from Jordan asserting she must answer questions about the investigation. "A more troubling explanation is that you are abusing your authority as Chairman of the Committee on the Judiciary to attempt to obstruct and interfere with a Georgia criminal prosecution."

The Hill: Georgia defendants, prosecutors spar over validity of RICO charge in 2020 election case.
NBC News: Trump wants to subpoena "missing" Jan. 6 committee records in election interference case.

The Supreme Court on Wednesday weighed whether South Carolina's congressional map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and suggested it will reinstate the Republican-drawn map, hearing arguments in a case that could help determine which party controls the House after next year's election. In a session that lasted more than two hours, the court's conservative majority voiced skepticism about a lower court's conclusion that lawmakers engaged in unconstitutional racial gerrymandering (Bloomberg News).

The background: A map drawn by Republican state lawmakers shifted some 30,000 Black voters in the Charleston area out of the state's 1st Congressional District, a move that cemented a Republican tilt in the district and drew legal challenges. A three-judge panel struck down the map, finding that race was the predominant motivating factor, and the Republican state lawmakers urged the justices at oral arguments to overturn the ruling (The Hill and CNN). 

🎤 We don't talk about Leonard Leo, the man behind the right's Supreme Court supermajority. In a podcast and series of investigations, ProPublica reports the inside story of how Leo built a machine that remade the American legal system — and what he plans to do next.

Opinion

The eat-your-own caucus has found its new [House] leader. Or has it? By Nicolle Hemmer, contributing columnist, The New York Times. 
Israel and Ukraine are linked, and the U.S. must stand with both, by Andreas Kluth, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.

The Closer

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … ⚠️ It's Thursday, which means it's time for this week's Morning Report Quiz! Ripping our puzzle from recent headlines, we're eager for some smart guesses about hazards.

Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and kkarisch@thehill.com — please add "Quiz" to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

California over the weekend banned a carcinogenic additive contained in certain candies. Which of these sweet treats appeared in many news accounts describing the state law?

M&M's
Twizzlers
Peeps
Butterfingers

There are many dangerous jobs in the world, but which came into sharp relief worldwide with at least seven occupationally related deaths since Saturday?

Iron workers in China  
Sherpas at Mount Everest
Orca researchers in New Zealand
Journalists reporting in Gaza

A World Health Organization scientist predicted to Reuters that conditions caused by global warming will make which disease a new threat in the southern United States?

Ebola
Dengue
Yellow fever
Rinderpest

Many of the most activist, conservative House Republicans continued this week to warn that the _____ is a major threat to future U.S. generations — and is not being effectively addressed in Washington.