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MORNING REPORT

Monday, February 26

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

GOP faces risks with shutdown and IVF messaging

Inside and outside the Capitol, Republicans are facing the heat.

In Washington, lawmakers are racing to avoid a partial government shutdown by Friday's funding deadline, the fourth time in six months that Congress is staring down the same cliff. Funding for four federal agencies may lapse Friday, while money for the rest is set to expire on March 8.

President Biden will meet with congressional leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), at the White House on Tuesday in a bid to avert a shutdown and unlock billions of dollars in emergency aid to allies, including Ukraine. National security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday put the country's future as it fends off Russia's invasion on Johnson's shoulders.

"There is a strong bipartisan majority in the House standing ready to pass this bill if it comes to the floor, and that decision rests on the shoulders of one person and history is watching whether Speaker Johnson will put that bill on the floor," Sullivan told CNN "State of the Union" Sunday.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Sunday blasted Republicans over the threat of what he called "a harmful and unnecessary government shutdown" as Congress struggles to strike a bipartisan deal (The Hill).

"We are mere days away from a partial government shutdown on March 1," Schumer wrote in a Sunday letter to lawmakers. "Unless Republicans get serious, the extreme Republican shutdown will endanger our economy, raise costs, lower safety, and exact untold pain on the American people."

Spending cardinals in both chambers have been working for weeks crafting the 12 annual government funding bills that must win bipartisan support to pass, writes The Hill's Mychael Schnell. However, many senior appropriators have acknowledged partisan riders as a key hurdle in talks.

Republican policy demands — on issues ranging from abortion and LGBTQ rights to national security concerns on immigration — have slowed talks that had appeared to be close to yielding a breakthrough. Lawmakers abandoned tentative plans to announce legislative text on a deal Sunday evening, and instead some members say another temporary funding patch looks increasingly likely.

All this could lead to a dramatic showdown: Biden is set to deliver his State of the Union address March 7, possibly with the backdrop of lawmakers still stuck on a government funding plan (The Washington Post).

BEYOND THE BELTWAY, Alabama's recent state Supreme Court decision that embryos are children has sent ripples through the GOP, forcing them to distance themselves from some of the decision's sweeping consequences.

Three fertility clinics in Alabama, including the state's largest health system, have paused in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments in the wake of the shock ruling. It has put GOP politicians who oppose abortion rights but back IVF in a complicated position, forcing them to awkwardly explain why they may disagree with a ruling even as some of them say they believe embryos are babies (The Hill and The New York Times).

Former President Trump — who says he's "proud" of his role in overturning Roe v. Wade with his three conservative nominees to the Supreme Court — said in a social media post Friday that, "I strongly support the availability of IVF for couples who are trying to have a precious baby," and called on the Alabama legislature "to act quickly to find an immediate solution to preserve the availability of IVF in Alabama."

In an attempt to wrest control of the narrative, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday told candidates to express their support for IVF, oppose restrictions on the treatment and campaign on expanding access to it. But Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) said Sunday that a pending IVF bill in the Senate has received no comment from the GOP (The Hill). Even as Trump and lawmakers distanced themselves from the ruling, national and state-level anti-abortion groups celebrated it, though most still indicated they were proceeding with caution (The Washington Post).

Meanwhile, anti-abortion groups and former Trump administration officials are drawing up plans for sweeping abortion restrictions if he returns to the White House in 2025. The Hill's Nathaniel Weixel and Brett Samuels report Trump is reportedly telling advisers and associates in private that he supports a ban on abortions after 16 weeks of pregnancy — but threading that needle publicly could backfire. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in November tried to rally voters around "a reasonable 15-week limit" with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. But Democrats, running heavily on protecting abortion access, won control of the state Legislature.

"We saw Glenn Youngkin claim that he had found some sort of special sauce here, that they could rebrand on this issue. And the fact is that this is not a branding problem — it's their agenda," Jessica Mackler, interim president of EMILY's List, said during a Biden campaign call with reporters. "That is the problem. And voters know that."

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

United Nations chief Antonio Guterrés today said the Security Council has "perhaps fatally" undermined its authority with deadlock over the conflict in Gaza and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is spreading disinformation in advance of the 2024 election, using fake online accounts and bots to damage Biden and his fellow Democrats.
American CEOs used to swoon over China. But doing business there has become so fraught and risky that U.S. companies have pressed the pause button.

Leading the Day

MORE IN CONGRESS

Funding the government is job one. But Congress's other unfinished business this month resumes with a Senate trial aimed at Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who was narrowly impeached by House Republicans after two tries, on charges of allegedly failing to follow immigration law.

Democrats say invented charges not based in fact or law will result in acquittal, or perhaps another Senate maneuver to dispose of the House impeachment.

For now, Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray (D-Wash.) will oversee the proceedings and Senate Democratic leaders laid out some trial plans that involve House impeachment managers who present articles of impeachment and senators who must be sworn in as jurors.

The Hill's Al Weaver outlines what's ahead for Mayorkas in the Senate. Schumer could try to dismiss the charges or he could refer them to a special committee, both of which would require a simple majority vote. Senators in both parties widely expect the chamber to spend the minimal amount of time possible on impeachment, in large measure because a March 1 government funding deadline is deemed more important.

FROM CHURCH TO HOUSE TO THE WHITE HOUSE? Speaker Johnson is known as a devout Christian. House GOP colleagues who did not know him well before his ascent up the legislative ladder describe how his religion is on display in his work, complete with sermons not all of his coworkers applaud. Johnson wields his Christianity to exert power, MSNBC reports. Johnson in the past taught classes using misinformation about church-state separation and asserted incorrectly that the United States, which has no national religion by design, is a "Christian nation."

▪ Politico: An influential think tank close to Trump is developing plans to infuse Christian nationalist ideas in his administration should the former president return to power.

▪ PBS and AP: "No one will be touching the cross of Christ under the Trump administration, I swear to you," Trump told Christian broadcasters last week.

Politics

Trump, who has successfully swept all the early GOP state caucus and primary contests, is viewed as the likely GOP nominee after trouncing challenger Nikki Haley by 20 points in Saturday's primary in her home state of South Carolina.

Haley, who warns voters that nominating Trump spells general election defeat for the GOP, vows to continue her campaign in Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah ahead of Super Tuesday — and then reassess. She presents herself as a sort of GOP insurance policy while the 77-year-old former president attempts to juggle what she calls his chaotic political M.O. while also defending himself against 91 criminal charges in four jurisdictions.

Donors may not go the distance with the former U.N. ambassador. On Sunday, Americans for Prosperity Action (AFP Action), the political wing of the conservative network led by billionaire Charles Koch, said it would cease backing Haley's campaign (The Hill).

▪ The New York Times: Michigan's Tuesday primary and a statewide nominating convention March 2 will be used by Republicans to award presidential delegates. If you're confused, you're not alone.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: "Uncommitted" voters in Michigan are Biden's biggest 2024 challenge to date.

▪ ABC News: Off to Michigan, Haley is staying in the race despite Trump's South Carolina primary win.

▪ The New York Times: A beginner's guide to March 5, Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory will vote.

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2024 ROUNDUP

Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel made it official today. She will step down on March 8 and make way for a new election, which will include Trump's preferred slate of candidates for party chair and co-chair.
No Labels would "definitely be interested in" Haley as a potential candidate to lead a third-party ticket in the 2024 general election, its director said Sunday.
Is it 2016 all over again? The Biden campaign is in a slow boil over what it sees as overhyped media attention focused on the president's age relative to coverage of Trump's verbal assaults against U.S. allies, pledges to challenge U.S. laws and Americans' rights and his web of criminal charges. It reminds them of media coverage during the close contest between Hillary Clinton and Trump.
Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) believes that to counter "misinformation" he blames in part on artificial intelligence, Democrats during the general election will need a sophisticated ground operation and "the biggest group of validators" to speak with voters. "When you go one-on-one with people and you confront them in their communities where they are, you get a much better response than trying to fight off the misinformation that's out there over the airway," he told MSNBC.
Trump is stoking excitement within his base about a potential running mate.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trying to chip away at Biden's support among Black voters.

Where and When

The House convenes at 3 p.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will fly to New York City for a fundraiser at 2:45 p.m. and will tape an interview with "Late Night" host Seth Meyers, who is marking the show's 10th anniversary. Biden will return to the White House.

Vice President Harris will record a live radio interview with Brother Shomari (Eric K. Grimes) and WURD 96.1 FM at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Iraqi Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani at 11 a.m. and with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski at 4 p.m.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will depart for São Paulo, Brazil, where she has a full itinerary this week while conferring with Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will speak at noon at a Biden Victory Fund event and again at 6:25 p.m. at a separate fundraiser, both in Boston.

Zoom In

INTERNATIONAL

THE WHITE HOUSE BALKS at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to invade Rafah in southern Gaza — where more than 1 million civilians are estimated to be seeking refuge at Israel's direction. The expected invasion has been anticipated for weeks after Netanyahu ordered evacuations out of the southern city earlier this month. The Biden administration has repeatedly urged Israel to rethink the planned operation. National security adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that Biden hasn't seen any plans for a military operation in Rafah or any plan to evacuate Palestinians who have been pushed into the area (The Hill).

"It's also the area where all of the humanitarian assistance comes into Gaza to serve all of Gaza," he told anchor Kristen Welker. "And so we've been clear that we do not believe that an operation — a major military operation — should proceed in Rafah, unless there is a clear and executable plan to protect those civilians, to get them to safety and to feed, clothe and house them."

MEANWHILE, AN "UNDERSTANDING" has been reached among negotiators about the broad contours of a potential deal to release hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, Sullivan told CNN on Sunday. An Israeli delegation, including Mossad director David Barnea, joined talks with CIA director Bill Burns and Egyptian and Qatari negotiators in Paris on Friday. Hamas was briefed on the Paris talks on Sunday evening. But any possible final deal is still, at the earliest, days away as negotiators continue to hammer out the actual details.

"You can't have victory until you eliminate Hamas," Netanyahu said on CBS's "Face The Nation," adding that likely expanded operations in Rafah are "weeks, not months" away from completion. "If we have a deal it will be delayed somewhat, but ... if we don't have a deal, we'll do it anyway."

▪ CBS News: An American doctor describes the "incomparable" devastation in Gaza impacting children as Israel-Hamas war continues.

▪ Reuters: Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said on Monday he was resigning to allow for the formation of a broad consensus among Palestinians about political arrangements after the war in Gaza.

U.S. ASSISTANCE to Ukraine has run dry two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion across the border, a stark turn after a strong bipartisan response early in the war. The Hill's Ellen Mitchell reports that though the United States poured lethal assistance into the country in the weeks and months after the Kremlin's attack, late December marked the last time Washington provided Kyiv with any significant military aid. Now, a $60.1 billion supplemental for Ukraine is languishing in Congress as Kyiv's forces struggle with dwindling supplies — a holdup that is allowing Russia to regain momentum as the conflict hit its two-year anniversary over the weekend.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday told NBC News that he wants his allies to know that if they are ready to provide Ukraine with air defenses, he can use it to save "civilians, historical centers, hospitals, and also it can defend [against] Russians and defeat also this fleet."

"So, if partners are ready to do it — not so slow way — stop being afraid of Russia," he said. "If they are ready, we will have success. If not, they will continue, continue, continue [to] attack us."

AN ESTIMATED 500 UKRAINIAN CHILDREN kidnapped by Russia have been returned over two years of war, a fraction of the estimated hundreds of thousands of children described as being held hostage in what constitutes a war crime and part of allegations of genocide. Governments, data scientists, and non-profit organizations working to return kidnapped children are in the ultimate race against time, to protect the vulnerable — some as young as a year old — who are having their identities, nationality and culture erased from the moment they are taken into Russian custody (The Hill).

▪ The Washington Post: Zelensky said Sunday that 31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia invaded two years ago.

▪ The New York Times: U.S. Senate aide Kyle Parker is under congressional investigation for frequent trips to Ukraine's war zones and providing what he said was $30,000 in sniper gear to its military. Parker, a senior adviser to the Helsinki Commission, denies wrongdoing.

▪ The Hill: After 65 days in a bomb shelter with her baby, Ukrainian Anna Zaitseva turned her harrowing experience into advocacy in support of her country.

▪ NewsNation: Hungary's parliament will vote today on ratifying Sweden's bid to join NATO, likely bringing an end to more than 18 months of delays.

Elsewhere

© The Associated Press / J. Scott Applewhite | Special counsel Jack Smith, pictured in August, has urged the Supreme Court not to delay its decision in the question of former President Trump's immunity.

COURTS

SCOTUS URGENCY: When special counsel Jack Smith asked the Supreme Court to reject Trump's immunity claims, there was an unmistakable urgency to the request as Smith cautioned the court against further "delay" more than a dozen times in his brief. But two weeks after Trump asked the court to step into the charged dispute over whether he may claim immunity from prosecution — and more than a week since all the necessary briefs were filed with the justices — court watchers are trying to glean meaning from the timing and silence.

The court has a number of options, from denying Trump's request to block a lower court ruling against his immunity claims, to granting the request and holding arguments, to deciding the issue without arguments altogether. Randall Eliason, a former federal prosecutor and George Washington University law professor, told CNN no one knows for certain what's happening behind the scenes. The justices have met at least three times but it's not known if they discussed the immunity case at any of those conferences. With those caveats, Eliason said that more time is probably a bad sign for the former president.

"I think that's the most likely reason," Eliason said. "Someone is writing a dissent."

▪ The Washington Post: How Justice Arthur Engoron's numbers add up for Trump's penalty in the New York fraud trial.

▪ The Washington Post: The legal clock is ticking while Trump is expected to post bonds and faces a cash crunch. He owes New York at least $454 million — $355 million plus interest, which accrues at a rate of $112,000 per day. Separately, he faces a judgment of $83.3 million in a federal defamation case brought by the writer E. Jean Carroll.

▪ The Guardian: A Georgia election racketeering case against Trump and his allies hit another potential stumbling block when the court was provided with phone records that appear to show the prosecutor Nathan Wade made at least 35 visits to District Attorney Fani Willis's (D) neighborhood before she hired him. Willis's continuation as prosecutor of the Trump case is in question.

A NEW FRONT IN AMERICA'S CULTURE WARS will reach the Supreme Court today as the justices hear two cases stemming from controversial laws in Texas and Florida regulating social media bans. The laws aim to block social media companies from banning users based on their political views — even if users violate platform policies. If allowed to stand, they could weaken companies' ability to enforce their own rules and transform free speech online (The Hill).

Opinion

Donald Trump's divided Republican Party: He wins big in South Carolina but he won't beat Biden without Nikki Haley's voters, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
Netanyahu's 'day after' memo isn't a plan, but it's a start, by Marc Champion, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.
Texas is right. The tech giants need to be regulated, by Tim Wu, opinion contributor, The New York Times.

The Closer

And finally … The successful Odysseus landing on the moon went sideways last week, literally.

A landing without a crash, yes, but the 14-foot-tall equipment invented by U.S. company Intuitive Machines is sending back signals while on its side, although the initial celebratory reports suggested it was upright. It began with a laser problem compounded by a descent speed problem, then a snagged foot, the company explained.

Stock in Intuitive Machines plummeted after markets closed Friday when Odysseus was described as reclining on the lunar surface.

"So far, we have quite a bit of operational capability even though we're tipped over," Intuitive Machines CEO and co-founder Steve Altemus said Friday.

Well before Odysseus's mission, which is under contract with NASA, space experts explained why a successful computer-controlled landing on the pocked, cratered surface of the moon remains difficult, even so many decades beyond the 1972 finalé for the manned-mission Apollo era.

Turns out humans are a plus.

"Apollo 11 would absolutely have crashed and been destroyed if it had landed on the spot it originally came down on," Greg Autry, director of space leadership at Arizona State University's Thunderbird School of Global Management, told CNN last week. "Neil [Armstrong] was literally looking out the window. He maneuvered the lander over a boulder field and a big crater and found a safe spot to land with just barely enough fuel left. If there wasn't a skilled pilot that could control it, the lander certainly would have wrecked."