2026 CHALLENGES: Both parties are facing critical challenges as they look ahead to the midterm elections, requiring them to navigate key issues and voting blocs to succeed in November.
While staring down a packed legislative to-do list, the start of the year also signals a new focus on campaigning for Republicans and Democrats, with both parties crafting what they hope will be a winning message this year.
One of the chief issues facing candidates: how to handle Trump.
Republicans in the House and Senate remain overwhelmingly behind the president (though there have been some signs of cracks). But that could place members in a tough spot heading into the midterms as Trump's popularity remains underwater.
Trump sought to rally House Republicans at a policy retreat at the Kennedy Center on Tuesday, pushing for unity behind his priorities. But The Hill's Emily Brooks reports that the speech provided few specifics or directives and instead emphasized the importance of electoral success.
"You got to win the midterms. Because if we don't win the midterms … they'll find a reason to impeach me," Trump said, referring to the Democrats.
While some members have broken with Trump on certain issues, most haven't tried to create much distance from the party's leader. They'll have to chart a path on how to handle defending the president's record, particularly on the economy, where his poll numbers have lagged recently.
"As we're going through the day, the common theme is 2026 is going to be about lowering prices and giving people bigger paychecks," House GOP conference Chair Lisa McClain (Mich.) told Brooks.
Republicans are considering whether to push for another reconciliation bill to address affordability concerns after last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, though they acknowledge any legislation passed won't be as significant.
The party is also facing a challenge on how to address health care. The enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired at the end of 2025, sending premiums spiking for millions of Americans.
Democrats are pushing ahead with a bill to extend the subsidies by three years, which most Republicans oppose. But the GOP will look to push an alternative to keep up in the messaging battle.
On the Democratic side, polls have shown the party is in a stronger position at the beginning of the year than the GOP. But The Hill's Amie Parnes reports that strategists say Democrats shouldn't focus their midterm messaging too much on Trump, who has often been painted as a boogeyman among the party's base.
Analysts said the key to winning is focusing on economic issues, with Trump still being included as a secondary focus.
"You can't ignore Trump because it's his economy. But the top message is the economy and affordability," one source familiar with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's plans for the midterms said.
And Democrats may have an opportunity to win back key groups they lost ground with in 2024. The Hill's Julia Mueller reports some Republicans are worried they're giving up the gains they made with young voters, with polls showing most young voters disapprove of Trump and the Republican Party as a whole.
▪ The Hill: Trump tells Republicans to be 'flexible' on abortion restrictions.
▪ The Hill: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) touts war chest.
SPECIAL ELECTION WIN: Democrats kicked off 2026 with another special election victory Tuesday, holding onto a Virginia state Senate seat.
Democrat Mike Jones easily won the race to represent the Richmond-area district after Ghazala Hashmi vacated the seat to become lieutenant governor. The win didn't come as a surprise, as former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district by 30 points in 2024.
But the victory is still significant as Democrats hold a narrow majority in the chamber, and Jones appeared to have outperformed Harris, continuing Democrats' trend of outperforming the 2024 ticket.
Meanwhile, a special election for a state House seat in South Carolina is too close to call, as Republican Greg Ford leads Democrat Sonja Ogletree Satani by 21 votes, as of the latest vote count. Trump carried the district by 7 points in 2024.
VENEZUELAN OIL: Trump said Venezuela will turn over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., building on his push to gain a foothold in the oil market in the South American nation.
"This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!" Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Trump said after the operation to capture Maduro that the U.S. would control oil production in Venezuela, which has the largest known oil reserves in the world. He said U.S. oil companies would go into Venezuela, fix its infrastructure and get the industry going there.
But questions remain about whether U.S. oil companies will go into the country. Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil corporation operating in Venezuela.
Who eventually leads Venezuela is also seen as critical to whether the companies go in. While Trump cast doubt on the ability of opposition leader María Corina Machado to lead, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) told NewsNation that he backs her to become Venezuela's next president.
▪ The Hill: Oil at the center of Trump's Venezuela takeover.
▪ The Washington Post: New wave of repression unleashed in Venezuela.
About 75 people were killed during the raid to capture Maduro based on a U.S. government assessment, officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.
Venezuela's military previously said 24 of its security officers were killed during the operation, while Cuba claimed 32 members of its armed forces and intelligence agencies were killed.
▪ The Hill: Who is Judge Alvin Hellerstein, the 92-year-old overseeing Maduro case?
HOUSE MAJORITY NARROWS: The already tight House Republican majority shrunk even more following the sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.).
LaMalfa, who was 65 years old, had represented Northern California in the House since 2013. He reportedly suffered a medical emergency on Monday and died during surgery early Tuesday.
With former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) also stepping down from her House seat the day before LaMalfa's death, the GOP's majority in the chamber dropped to 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. That only allows Republicans to lose two of their members in party-line votes and have legislation pass.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced Tuesday that a special election to fill the remainder of Greene's term would be held on March 10, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will call a special election to fill the remainder of LaMalfa's term.
Both are solidly Republican districts, so the GOP should win them back, but they'll be without members from those districts for the next couple of months.
And Democrats are set to add a member at the end of January following a runoff election to fill a vacant House seat in Texas. Two Democrats are facing off in that district, guaranteeing another member for the party.
▪ The Hill: House Republican hospitalized after car crash.
▪ The Hill: Trump promotes primary challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.).
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