A week ago, it looked like Minnesota Democrats had stumbled into a scandal that might cost their party any chance to win back the U.S. Senate and at the very least turn a safe gubernatorial race into a desperate fight.
A reliable mid-single digit win for Democrats on the presidential level even in tough years, the Gopher State hasn't gone Republican on the presidential level since 1972. But midterms have often been competitive there, with Republicans holding both a Senate seat and the governorship as recently as 2009.
A slow-burning scandal around allegations of wild abuses of COVID-era welfare programs, particularly among the state's large Somali diaspora, turned into a full-blown conflagration when right-wing media got a look at videos from a YouTuber showing empty day care centers that had received millions in funding.
Gov. Tim Walz, still smarting from a widely panned turn as the Democrats' 2024 vice presidential nominee, had opted late last year to seek a third term as governor with evident reluctance. His flat-footed response to both the actual scandal and President Trump's bazooka of scurrilous attacks put Walz's reelection in serious doubt.
Plus, Minnesota has an open Senate seat this year with the retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. It's a long way 'till November, but with an ugly Democratic primary in the making between moderate Rep. Angie Craig and progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the scandal and a weakened Walz at the top of the ticket had Republicans looking more seriously about the chance to flip a seat there.
But on Monday, while most of the nation's attention was focused on the fallout from the U.S. attack on Venezuela, Walz stunned Minnesotans by dropping out of the race. This was initially received as more potential good news for Republicans. The only thing better for them than facing a weak incumbent seeking a third term would be a hard-line progressive, particularly one who had emerged from another factious primary — someone like Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison.
But just as quickly, the story turned again as four-term Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar said she was considering a run for the governorship. Klobuchar is the heaviest hitter in Minnesota politics (her smallest margin of victory was 16 points in 2024) and would not only clear the primary but make Republicans all but write off the general election.
And if she does make the move, there's no Senate silver lining either. Klobuchar can hold her seat while she runs and potentially be able to appoint her own replacement if she wins in November. The special election wouldn't take place until 2027, too late to help offset expected Republican Senate losses this year.
In the span of four days, the Minnesota welfare scandal had gone from a national problem for Democrats to something more manageable thanks to fast action by Walz and Klobuchar. While Smith's seat was still a real concern for Democrats, the Walz departure even helped there not just by getting his name off the ticket, but by dimming the chances for the more radical candidate in the Senate primary, Flanagan, as part of his administration.
But the ride wasn't over. Minnesota politics have been upended yet again, but this time by the Trump administration's effort to maximize the GOP advantage from the initial scandal.
Aside from cutting off federal child care funding to the state while the fraud investigation continued, the president ordered federal officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other agencies — as many as 2,000 strong — to surge into Minnesota, with a particular emphasis on Somali immigrants.
On Wednesday, one of those officers shot and killed a woman who was attempting to monitor the agents' movements.
The initial response from a cowboy-hatted Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and the White House was brutal and absolute. The deceased, Renee Nicole Macklin Good, was said to have gotten what she deserved for committing "domestic terrorism" by trying to run down agents.
But by the end of the day, Trump was starting to backtrack, telling reporters, "It's a terrible scene. I think it's horrible to watch. No, I hate to see it." Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, put a little more distance between the administration and Noem's wild west routine, saying, "Let the investigation play out and hold people accountable based on the investigation."
Don't hold your breath for accountability or for Trump to change his policy on using federal agents to project force into blue cities. But his secondary response to the video and that of Homan tell us of an awareness that there are real vulnerabilities here for MAGA.
The truth of the shooting doesn't fit neatly into either the "FAFO" default setting for the administration and its supporters or the #resist narrative in which an innocent mother was murdered in cold blood. Certainly, had she not been killed, Macklin Good would have been facing charges at least for fleeing and endangering police. Now, the question is whether the officer who killed her will face consequences for excessive use of force.
For months, voters have been expressing concern about the tactics that the administration is using to carry out deportations. The Minnesota video gives form to those broader anxieties, including about having ICE agents conceal their identities.
In the span of a week, what had been a boon to Republicans — a scandal involving Democrats' 2024 vice presidential nominee that reinforced effective lines of attack from the presidential campaign — has turned into a debacle for the GOP.
That could, of course, turn on a dime again if there's an overreaction to the overreaction. Certainly, Minneapolis's mayor provides evidence that reason and calm may not carry the day. If the shooting becomes a flashpoint for rioting, we can all reset our political clocks again.
But for now at least, it's evidence that in this midterm year for Republicans, things fall apart.
[Programming alert: Watch "The Hill Sunday" with Chris Stirewalt — 2026 is off to a roaring start with a rare bipartisan rebuke of the president's military actions in Venezuela and a national backlash to the tragic shooting of a U.S. citizen by an ICE officer in Minnesota. As the Trump administration struggles to control the narrative both here at home and abroad, we'll speak to members on both sides of the aisle. And, as always, we'll have expert analysis from our best-in-the-business panel of journalists. Be sure to catch us on NewsNation at 10 a.m. ET / 9 a.m. CT or your local CW station.]
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