Since our last issue, we've seen two significant Senate candidate announcements for Democrats: Sen. Tim Kaine seeking reelection in Virginia and Rep. Ruben Gallego running for the seat Democrat-turned-Independent Kyrsten Sinema currently holds.
Arizona
Sinema hasn't said whether she's running for reelection, but Gallego is making his case against her: "I'm better for this job than Kyrsten Sinema because I haven't forgotten where I came from," he told the Associated Press.
What this means for Democrats: If Sinema runs, Senate Democrats and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will have a tough decision to make.
"Either they endorse Sinema, who often stalls their agenda and late last year bucked their party but still caucuses with them, or they back Gallego, who skews progressive against a sitting senator. Either decision risks splitting their base's vote and handing a purple state seat to a Republican," The Hill's Al Weaver, Hanna Trudo and Aris Folley wrote. They dug deep into the dynamics here.
The election will take place alongside the presidential election. In 2020, President Biden won the state 49.4 percent to 49 percent. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) won in November by 5 percentage points, and Sinema won by 2.4 points in 2018.
Virginia
Tim Kaine, a former governor and vice presidential candidate, is seeking a third Senate term.
What this means for Democrats: Kaine's bid "ensures the party will have the upper hand in the race, as Kaine is seen as a formidable incumbent," The Hill's Julia Manchester wrote. "That's a key factor for Democrats in Virginia, which in recent years has swung to the right in statewide elections."
While Democrats performed well in Virginia's congressional elections last year, Republicans flipped the statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general in 2021.
Biden won the state by 10 percentage points in 2020.
Of the eight Senate seats expected to be most competitive next year, Democrats hold seven and Sinema holds the other. See The Hill's Max Greenwood's list here.
Gubernatorial ratings: Republicans' odds in some states hinge on incumbents
According to both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, Republicans' odds of maintaining governorships in Vermont and New Hampshire in 2024 depend largely on whether incumbents run again.
Sabato's Crystal Ball said its likely Republican ratings for both states are "acting as somewhat of a placeholder: if either, or both, [incumbents] run again, they will be favored, but open seats would probably start off as at least Toss-ups."
And according to Cook Political Report, governor's races in the two states are solid Republican with incumbents running and top pickup opportunities for Democrats without.
Vermont – home of progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), who caucuses with Democrats – is the more solidly blue of the two states, with generally uncompetitive statewide elections except occasionally for governor. While Gov. Phil Scott (R) has had an at-times contentious relationship with the Democratic-controlled state legislature, he won reelection in 2022 by more than 45 percentage points as Democrats claimed a supermajority in the state House and maintained one in the state Senate.
Last year, Democrats picked up governorships in deep-blue Maryland and Massachusetts, where moderate Republican incumbents were out of the running.
Maryland's Larry Hogan was term-limited, while Massachusetts' Charlie Baker chose not to seek reelection. Republicans endorsed by former President Trump won the states' gubernatorial primaries and lost by wide margins in November.
Other rating highlights: Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina have upcoming gubernatorial races falling into competitive categories for one or both outlets.
- Both outlets consider 2023's race in Kentucky lean Democratic.
- Cook calls Louisiana's 2023 race lean Republican, while Sabato calls it likely Republican.
- Sabato calls North Carolina a toss-up, while Cook calls it lean Democratic.
There are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the country.
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