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MORNING REPORT

Monday, May 1

by Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch

Five states to watch in the battle for Senate

Washington may be focused on the presidential contest, but for Democrats, some serious nail-biting drama is evident in a handful of states that will determine Senate control in 2025.

The Hill's Al Weaver takes a closer look at five seats seen as most likely to flip, depending on decisions by Senate incumbents, the state of the economy and, of course, the presidential nominees competing at the top of 2024 ballots.

Republicans are going on offense as they search for quality candidates who could take down incumbent Senate Democrats and an independent in states friendly to the GOP, including West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

For example, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) last week entered the Senate GOP primary in a bid to become his party's nominee to take on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has yet to say if he will seek reelection. Justice, who at one time was a Democrat, immediately became the favorite for the GOP nod. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, backed by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signaled support.

In complicated Arizona, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, now an independent after being both a progressive and then a centrist Democrat, has not said if she's running.

The secret sauce is that she's like Teflon. Nothing sticks to her," an Arizona-based GOP operative told The Hill. "But is she a spoiler or can she win? It's too early to know. … She is tenacious. She is smart and she will work hard. The question I've been asking is: how much does she want it?"

The Atlantic (interview): The Kyrsten Sinema theory of American politics.
The New York Times Magazine: Kyrsten Sinema's party of one.
NBC News: How Minnesota is becoming a laboratory in pushing progressive policy.
Politico: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is "not planning" to seek a Senate seat in 2024.

Speaking of politics bolted to policy, GOP anxieties about restrictive state abortion laws are rising, reports The Hill's Nathaniel Weixel.

The biggest fights in the nation are increasingly being duked out in state legislatures, adds The Hill's Niall Stanage in his latest Memo, but proposed abortion bans narrowly failed last week in South Carolina and Nebraska. The outcomes handed advocates for reproductive rights the latest in a growing list of victories, many of them chalked up in conservative states.

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel advises that GOP candidates can't duck abortion policy with voters, adding that the issue played a role in the party's disappointing 2022 midterm performance among independents.

"Abortion was a big issue in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania," McDaniel said on "Fox News Sunday." "The guidance we're going to give to our candidates is, `you have to address this head on.' … Many of our candidates across the board refused to talk about it."

Axios: Former President Trump, who has viewed abortion as a vote-loser for the party and best left to the states, suggested he's open to signing a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy if he's back in the White House after next year's contest.
CNN: GOP presidential candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Sunday if he were in the White House, he would sign "a pro-life bill" that included exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother. "The American people are supportive of restrictions on abortion with the right exceptions in there," he added. "I don't think anything will come out of Congress without those exceptions."

2024 watch: GOP 2024 hopefuls audition against Biden with attacks on competence, age (The Washington Post). … Progressives line up behind Biden despite some misgivings (The Hill). … Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Biden's reelection chances: "The Democrats and the president have got to be stronger on working-class issues. … You do that, I think Biden is going to win in a landslide" (CNN). … Vice President Harris preps for her biggest task yet: Biden 2024 (The Hill). … Biden's "very risky choice" to run again increases the scrutiny on Harris (The New Yorker). … Democrats are busy trying to rebuild strength in "blue wall" Midwestern states Trump won in 2016 (The Hill). … Why GOP voters are so loyal to Trump (The Hill). … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) sets May 22 for his presidential bid announcement (The Hill and The Associated Press). … Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to announce a presidential exploratory committee or White House bid by early June (Bloomberg News). … GOP presidential aspirants knock DeSantis over his Disney battle (The Hill). … Americans blame the news media for increasing the country's political polarization, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights.

The Associated Press: What the GOP's plan for Medicaid work requirements would mean.
NBC News: This Supreme Court is slow to issue rulings — glacially slow.
The New York Times: How George Mason University's Scalia Law School in Virginia worked to become a key friend of conservatives on the Supreme Court.

Leading the Day

➤ CONGRESS

Despite House Republicans having passed a sweeping debt-limit and spending-cuts plan on Wednesday, neither party seems to have adjusted its positions on the debt ceiling over the weekend. On Sunday, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) likened the bill to "hostage negotiations."

"The Republicans are demanding hostage negotiations where they will crash the full faith and credit of the United States," Coons said during an interview on ABC's "This Week." "It would throw our country into recession and hurt us globally."

Republicans are continuing to blame Biden, who has called on Congress to pass a clean debt limit increase, saying he will not negotiate with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on the issue, citing historical precedent. If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. government could default on its debt in coming months, an event that could plunge the country into an economic crisis (Politico). House Democrats have started showing divisions in their approaches to the debt limit issue, as Axios reports that at least one House Democrat has received a call from Senate Democratic leadership urging them to tamp down their advocacy for talks between the White House and House Republicans, while nearly a dozen House Democrats have told reporters or written publicly that they're in favor of negotiations.

The prolonged debt ceiling fight has doubled as an affirmation of the rapid political ascent of the roughly three dozen-member House Freedom Caucus. In a divided government, the caucus has evolved from a thorny minority faction to a controlling legislative force. The group first exerted significant power early this year, holding up McCarthy's Speakership election until it could secure a number of policy priorities.

"What we did in January to get change — to get true conservatism — is working," said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a caucus member who serves on the House Budget Committee, told The Washington Post. "Does it go far enough? I would like to go a lot further. This is a start in the right direction."

Still, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle think any resolution of the debt limit standoff is going to require the intervention of McConnell, but the Kentucky lawmaker is telling colleagues that he doesn't have any plans to step in. McConnell is under pressure from conservatives in his conference to enact significant spending reforms and any deal he cuts with Democrats will be harshly criticized by Trump — leaving him to try and push the issue entirely to Biden and McCarthy. One advantage to this strategy, The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports, is that it keeps Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) sidelined in the talks.

The Hill: Vulnerable House Republicans prepare to fend off attacks over debt ceiling vote.
Axios: The GOP's quiet winning streak.

Meanwhile, with the House in recess until mid-May, McCarthy is in Israel with a bipartisan group of 20 lawmakers, where he will address the Knesset today. "Israel you are a blessed nation," McCarthy wrote in the Western Wall visitors' book after landing at Ben Gurion Airport, adding, "Our shared values unite a bond that will never break" (The Times of Israel).

CNN: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will remain a "robust democracy" despite judiciary plans.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is introducing legislation in the House and Senate today to permanently authorize a law allowing the president to implement punishing sanctions on Iran's economy. Sponsored by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Solidifying Iran Sanction Act is intended to permanently extend the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) of 1996, which is set to expire in 2026. The bill is co-sponsored by 24 lawmakers, including Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), who said Iran has "made clear it has no interest in participating in the international community or working towards peace" (The Hill).

"The rogue state continues to make threats against democracy and actively sponsors terrorism around the world," she said in a statement. "Through this bipartisan, bicameral legislation, we can prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons and further jeopardizing global peace."

➤ ADMINISTRATION

In a dramatic move amid months of turmoil among banks, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took over First Republic Bank as receiver early Monday and immediately sold it to JPMorgan Chase. The deal was announced hours before U.S. markets open today, and after a scramble by officials over the weekend (The New York Times).

CNBC: It was the third failure of an American bank since March, after a last-ditch effort to persuade rival lenders to keep the ailing bank afloat failed.

First Republic, whose assets were battered by the rise in interest rates, had struggled to stay alive after two other lenders collapsed last month, spooking depositors and investors. Later on Monday, 84 First Republic branches in eight states will reopen as JPMorgan branches. JPMorgan will "assume all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank," the federal regulators said in a statement. The FDIC estimated that its insurance fund would have to pay out about $13 billion to cover First Republic's losses.

The Hill: Why did First Republic Bank collapse? A guide to the latest crisis.
Barron's: First Republic insiders sold stock in the months before the slide.

Biden will host President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines for White House talks today as concerns grow about the Chinese navy's harassment of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea. His visit comes after the U.S. and Philippines completed their largest war drills to date last week; today, the two countries' air forces will hold their first joint fighter jet training in the Philippines since 1990.

Today's meeting is the latest high-level diplomacy with Pacific leaders by Biden as he contends with increased assertiveness by China and worries about North Korea's nuclear program (The Associated Press).

On Sunday, Macros said he was "determined to forge an ever stronger relationship with the United States in a wide range of areas that not only address the concerns of our times, but also those that are critical to advancing our core interests."

The Associated Press: U.S. readies second attempt at speedy border asylum screenings.

In Focus / Sharp Takes

➤ INTERNATIONAL

The U.S. and international partners are scrambling to contain an outbreak of fierce fighting in Sudan, where an eruption of conflict between heavily armed military factions risks exploding into a civil war that threatens devastating consequences for the Sudanese people and the world. The Hill's Laura Kelly reports intense diplomacy by the U.S., the United Kingdom, the African Union, United Nations, Gulf countries and others succeeded in extending a three-day ceasefire early Friday morning, providing a small and limited opening to try and rein in Sudan's warring military generals, who are fighting for power, money, and impunity for a history of violent atrocities against civilians. The truce marks a brief reprieve from nearly two weeks of fighting that has killed hundreds, wounded thousands and sent tens of thousands fleeing the capital Khartoum, where the earlier evacuation of the U.S. embassy and other foreign missions added another challenge in helping people escape the fighting (NPR).

"I think what we need to do is just to try to, all of us, advocate to capitalize on this leverage, so this cease-fire translates into a peaceful resolution to the crisis in Sudan," Yasir Elamin, president of the Sudanese American Physicians Association, told The Hill. "The humanitarian toll is going to be significant if we allow this to escalate, and I don't think it's too late."

The New York Times: As hospitals close and doctors flee, Sudan's health care system is collapsing.
Politico EU: Western governments evacuate more citizens from Sudan as situation deteriorates.
The Washington Post: U.S. evacuation convoy reaches Sudanese port city, State Department says.
Reuters: Sudan sides trade blame, fight on despite ceasefire.
The Associated Press: Emergency aid supplies reach Sudan, as fighting sputters on.

The U.K. is gearing up for the Saturday coronation of King Charles III, the first such event in 70 years. The coronation will be unprecedented in its inclusivity, as the new king wants to present himself not only as the "Defender of the Faith," meaning the Church of England, but all faiths, here and across the realm. For the first time, members of other faiths will play an active role in what has been, over the past four centuries, an almost exclusively Protestant service (The Washington Post). Despite coronation-related memorabilia available all over the country, the ceremony has yet to capture the imagination of a Britain preoccupied by other concerns. A recent poll of 3,070 adults in Britain by the market research firm YouGov showed 64 percent of respondents said they had little or no interest in the coronation (The New York Times).

"Love for the royal family has sort of declined," Jason Abdalla, 24, an information technology worker in London, told the Times. "It feels like appreciating the monarchy is an older, more mature thing. I mean, my parents are into it. They love the royal family. It's 'take it or leave it,' for me."

The Associated Press: Royal Drama: King's fractious family on stage at coronation.

A Ukrainian attack on an oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea that sparked a huge fire and sent a plume of black smoke billowing into the sky was part of Kyiv's preparations for a counteroffensive, a military spokeswoman said on Sunday. The depot fire, according to the spokeswoman for Ukraine's southern command, Natalia Humeniuk, is part of preparations for "the broad, full-scale offensive that everyone expects" (The New York Times).

The Associated Press: Russian missile attack on Ukraine injures 34, damages homes.
Bloomberg News: Eastern Europe is jeopardizing an economic lifeline for Ukraine.
Politico: Inside the 40-nation bloc that's saving Ukraine.
The Washington Post: Key nations sit out U.S. standoff with Russia, China, leaks show.

EVENT INVITE:

Expanding Access to Alzheimer's Care & Treatment, May 11, 2 p.m. ET

About 1 in 9 Americans over 65 suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Unfortunately, treatment options are still limited. Why is CMS declining coverage, and where are we in terms of new treatments on the horizon? The Hill brings together Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.); Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) and Nanette Barragan (D-Calif.); along with researchers, doctors, caregivers and patients to explore the latest treatments and roadblocks and discuss what more needs to be done.

Click Here to Register

Opinion

By helping Kamala Harris, Biden can help himself to a second term, by Robin Abcarian, columnist, The Los Angeles Times. https://lat.ms/3LGOCqN
How well does masking work? And other pandemic questions we need to answer, by Jennifer B. Nuzzo, guest essayist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3oWL7DX

Where and When

📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist's insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will convene on Tuesday at 11 a.m.

The Senate meets at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the nomination of Anthony Johnstone to be a U.S. circuit judge for the 9th Circuit.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9 a.m. At noon, Biden will deliver remarks about administration efforts to support small businesses in contrast with House Republican. Biden and first lady Jill Biden at 2:30 p.m. will welcome to the White House the president of the Philippines and his wife, Louise Araneta-Marcos. Biden and President Marcos will hold a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office at 2:45 p.m. The president will host a reception at 5:30 p.m. in the East Room celebrating Eid-al-Fitr.

The vice president will join the president at noon in the Rose Garden for remarks during National Small Business Week. Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff at 5 p.m. will attend Biden's reception in the East Room celebrating Eid-al-Fitr, the Muslim festival marking the end of the fast of Ramadan.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets at 8:30 a.m. with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan at the George Shultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center. The secretary at 9 a.m. meets with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov at the center. Blinken will welcome Mirzoyan and Bayramov to bilateral peace negotiations at 9:45 a.m. at the center. The secretary tonight will attend a dinner in Washington hosted by President Marcos.

Small Business Administration Administrator Isabel Guzman will join Biden at noon at the White House for an event focused on National Small Business Week.

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will be in Virginia for two events today focused on changes enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Becerra and Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) will visit Hope Pharmacy in Richmond at 10 a.m. to talk about lower costs for some prescription drugs, followed by a press conference at 10:45 a.m. The secretary will travel to Manassas to tour Birmingham Green, a senior living facility at 1:30 p.m., to speak about lower drug costs for seniors. With Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.), he will hold a news conference at 2:15 p.m.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 3 p.m.

⭐ The Hill's coverage of the White House Correspondents' Association dinner and weekend events can be found HERE.

Elsewhere

➤ HEALTH & WELLBEING

The number of Americans seeking mental health treatment is almost twice as high as it was two decades ago, The Hill's Alejandra O'Connell-Domenech reports, reflecting a historic recent decline in mental health but also an increase in virtual care access and a positive trend of de-stigmatization. In 2004, just 13 percent of adults said they had visited a therapist, psychiatrist or other mental health professional within the past year, according to Gallup polling. That number went up to 23 percent in 2022. While the shift began before COVID-19 arrived, the pandemic drove a new surge in demand for care, particularly among young adults.

"Without a doubt, shortly after the pandemic started there was a huge demand for our services," said Daniel Fridberg, associate professor of psychiatry at the University of Chicago.

Axios: The future of ketamine therapy.
The Washington Post: Gene-edited cells move science closer to repairing damaged hearts.
The New York Times: Bilingualism may stave off dementia, a new study shows.

While researchers have long known that dense breast tissue is linked to an increased risk of breast cancer in women, a new study published in JAMA Oncology adds a twist. Scientists discovered that while breast density declines with age, a slower rate of decline in one breast often precedes a cancer diagnosis in that breast. Shu Jiang, the study's lead author and an associate professor of public health sciences at Washington University, told The New York Times the findings might provide an individualized and adaptable tool for assessing a woman's breast cancer risk.

"I hope they can get this into clinical use as soon as possible — it will make a huge difference," she said.

"This week, for the first time, I will be proposing a national framework to rebuild social connection and community in America," writes U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy (The New York Times).

➤ STATE WATCH

📚 Across the country, student behavioral problems that spiked with the return of in-person learning after the coronavirus pandemic are getting even worse, educators said. Seventy percent of teachers, principals and district leaders said in a recent EdWeek Research Center survey that students are misbehaving more now than in 2019, up from 66 percent in December 2021. One-third in the new poll said students are misbehaving "a lot more." But as The Hill's Lexi Lonas writes, experts say the culture shock and whiplash from the extended period of remote classes is only one of the psychological and academic factors behind the problem.

In an arid pocket of Arizona's rural southwest, thirsty tufts of alfalfa are guzzling unlimited amounts of groundwater — only to become fodder for dairy cows some 8,000 miles east. The Hill's Sharon Udasin reports that this Sonoran Desert field of green, cultivated by a Saudi Arabian dairy giant, has become a flashpoint among residents, who resent the Middle Eastern company's unbridled — and steeply discounted — usage of a dwindling regional resource. But because the property is just one of many farms in the neighborhood growing water-intensive grains, the Vicksburg, Ariz. fields are also turning the spotlight on legal loopholes in state groundwater laws that enable such use in the first place.

"We don't have any restrictions on our groundwater," Holly Irwin, a La Paz County supervisor, told The Hill. "So it's like a free for all."

The Closer

And finally … The arm flapping will be critical.

If you're friendly, energetic and up for a challenge, a zoo in a popular British seaside town may have the perfect role for you: chasing away seagulls while wearing a giant bird suit, The Washington Post reports. The successful candidates will be paid up to £10.80 per hour (about $13.50) to wear an eagle costume and act as a "seagull deterrent" to prevent the pesky birds from harassing guests at Blackpool Zoo in northwest England.

More than 200 people have applied for the five available slots to impersonate gigantic eagles, including job seekers who appear ready to do some flying of their own. They hail from countries as far afield as Thailand, India, Ukraine and Uganda. Some sent videos of themselves attired in fruit and vegetable costumes as part of their applications.

Khaled Fawzy, the zoo's section head for birds and events, told the Post that the global attention triggered by the job ad had "taken us all by surprise."

But wait, seagulls are famously persistent, demanding and cranky! So, will it work? Bird experts say gulls are afraid of their natural predators, such as eagles and owls, as well as foxes and coyotes. Yet, inquiring minds want to know, without the feathers or fur, will they be cowed?