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12:30 REPORT

It's Tuesday. Happy snow day from Washington, D.C.! For anyone who is local and has today off, sledding is allowed on Capitol Hill! And there's a big snowball fight on the National Mall! Here's what's happening on the campaign trail today:

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley is threatening to pull out of this week's scheduled GOP presidential debates unless former President Trump agrees to participate.
Trump's speech last night was one of the mildest he has delivered in a long time. The GOP front-runner even praised his rivals.
There are a lot of interesting tidbits from the campaign trail this weekend, including a photo of Trump watching CNN and Fox to see the results, Vivek Ramaswamy speaking on what looks like a karaoke microphone and a CNN reporter pouring water on-air to watch it instantaneously freeze.
The University of Minnesota's dance team went viral over the weekend from an incredibly synchronized dance routine. The video is below!

Filing with a hot cup of coffee and some extra snow day magic in the air, I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

🥈 On to New Hampshire

Congrats to Iowa for a much more successful caucus than in 2020:

^ If you know, you know.

The Republican presidential nominating contest now turns to New Hampshire after former President Trump unsurprisingly dominated in Iowa.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) survived Monday night, edging out GOP rival Nikki Haley for the second-place spot despite her recent surge of momentum. Now, all eyes are on the first-in-the-nation primary state where the electorate is much more moderate.

👀 Haley is threatening to pull out of this week's debates: Haley said in a statement on Tuesday that she will only participate in another primary debate if Trump participates. On the books: There is an ABC News debate scheduled for Thursday and a CNN debate on Sunday.

✌️Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after placing a distant fourth and endorsed Trump. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) also dropped out after coming in sixth place in Iowa.

Fascinating tidbit: Around 66 percent of Iowa caucusgoers do not think President Biden's 2020 win was legitimate, according to entrance polls.

This may be the lowest turnout in 24 years: Roughly 110,000 Iowans showed up on Monday. For context, 187,000 Republicans caucused in 2016. (Axios)

📊The latest polling average in New Hampshire: Trump has an 11 percent lead over Haley — 42 percent to 30.9 percent, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. DeSantis has a distant 6.6 percent in the Granite State.

➤ WHAT NEXT?:

What does this mean for Nikki Haley?: She didn't have the best night, but she got what she needed from Iowa. She lost the race for second place in Iowa, but New Hampshire more closely aligns with her principles. Immediately after she walked off stage in Iowa, she turned to a New Hampshire-based TV station. Photo

From Haley — Hm, that's not the phrasing I would have chosen if I came in third: "I can safely say tonight, Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race," Haley said in her remarks. Haley's referring to her polling lead over DeSantis in New Hampshire.

What does this mean for Donald Trump?: Trump was beaming in his victory speech on Monday — and had a much softer tone than his usual speeches. Trump has had a series of losses in recent years — he lost the 2020 election, has 91 pending felony charges and is even in court today — so Monday's win seemed especially meaningful.

From Trump — He praised his rivals: Trump said Haley and DeSantis "both did very well" and that they have all been "having a good time together. Trump also called for "everybody to come together."

What does this mean for Ron DeSantis?: DeSantis's second-place finish saved his campaign. If he placed third behind Haley in Iowa and was now headed to New Hampshire, where he will likely place a distant third, the pressure to drop out would have been intense.

From DeSantis — You'd think he won the whole thing: "The media was against us, they were writing our obituaries months ago. They even called the election before people even got a chance to vote," DeSantis proclaimed to supporters. "[But] in spite of all that they threw at us, everyone against us, we got our ticket punched out of Iowa."

More takeaways:

'Iowa was Trump's to win. Can anyone stop his march to the nomination?': The Washington Post
Winners and losers: The Hill
'The Most Durable Force in American Politics: Trump's Ties to His Voters': The New York Times
Five numbers that explain the Iowa caucus results: The Hill
'Scared to Death': Local election officials on edge ahead of 2024 vote': Politico
Five takeaways, including the backlash from outlets calling the race early: The Hill

➤ SIGHTS AND SOUNDS FROM A WEEKEND OF CAMPAIGNING IN IOWA:

To give you a sense of just how cold it was: CNN's Kasie Hunt poured water on a window at a café. Watch the water immediately freeze

Nikki Haley's last-minute diner stops: Watch her talk to people while they eat breakfast

Haley's husband is currently deployed and hasn't had access to communication in a few days: "Our hope is that we're going to hear from him," Haley told CNN's Kylie Atwood. "I know that once he's back online, he'll let me know." Watch the clip

Watch Trump walk into a hotel lobby in Des Moines: "That's a lot of cold weather," Trump said. "We have a lot of meetings tonight, a lot of tremendous support, but it's nasty out there." Video from The Washington Examiner's Samantha Jo-Roth

What a minus 21 wind chill looks like: Video from NBC's Vaughn Hillyard

➤ SIGHTS AND SOUNDS FROM IOWA CAUCUS NIGHT:

Caucuses are fascinating: Watch the caucus results hand-tallied on little pieces of white paper.

Here are photos of the line for caucus registration. And here's a photo of a caucus room in Waukee, Iowa.

How Trump saw the results: Trump watched the news just like the rest of us. Note: He had CNN and Fox News on. Photo

Several news outlets called the race at 8:30 p.m. EST: Journalist Ben Jacobs posted: "We haven't even begun speeches at the caucus that I am attending and they have already called the state for Donald Trump."

One caucus ran out of chairs and rolled more in.

Eric Trump gave out red hats: And posed for photos — footage from PBS's Lisa Desjardins

Is that … Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)?!: "Wait a minute — it's really Marjorie Taylor Greene?" a woman excitedly pointed out. "Yeah, she's right there," another person responded. "Can I shake your hand?" she then asks. Watch the interaction

Where was Trump during the caucuses?: In Clive, Iowa. Photo of Trump speaking to caucusgoers

Shortly after the race was called, Trump's party was still EMPTY: But to be fair, it was unusually early for the race to be called. Here's a photo of the crowd a few hours later

Omg, is that a karaoke mic, Vivek?: Photo

Uhh, check out that imported beer list🤔: From DeSantis's event — Photo

2024 candidates are keeping the flag business booming: C-SPAN's Howard Mortman posted side-by-side photos of all of the flags at the candidates' caucus night events.

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💰 In Congress

The Jan. 19 funding deadline is coming up very quickly:

Congressional leaders are, once again, racing to keep the government funded through the weekend after punting the holiday deadline to this week.

Does Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) dislike his job?: Quite possibly. He is navigating growing anger within his party while staring down a partial shutdown at the end of the week.

What about punting the deadline another time?: That's what congressional leaders have been hoping. They unveiled a bipartisan deal over the weekend to move the deadline to March. But House conservatives are angry about that. So, stay tuned!

The Hill's Mychael Schnell wrote a helpful breakdown of the government funding battle.

➤ HAPPENING THURSDAY:

The House is scheduled to vote on whether to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress. Yes, but: If the president's son reaches a deal with Republicans and they agree on terms for testimony, that vote could be canceled.

Interesting read: The Hill's Alex Gangitano and Mike Lillis write how Hunter Biden's two surprise trips to Capitol Hill show that he wants to defend himself and isn't coordinating with the White House. (The Hill)

➤ A NEW TAX DEAL ANNOUNCED THIS MORNING:

"Top tax writers in Congress announced a deal Tuesday morning to beef up the child tax credit (CTC) and reinstate business deductions that were taken away to pay for the reduction of the corporate tax rate in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act."

Details from The Hill's Tobias Burns

🐝 Internet Buzz

🍪 Celebrate: Today is National Fig Newton Day!

👯‍️ The talk of TikTok: The University of Minnesota's dance team went viral on TikTok over the weekend over their routine's synchronization at a competition in Florida. (CBS News) / Watch their viral dance

💺I can't stop thinking about this: Business Insider explains how it was "pure luck" that no one was sitting in the Alaska Airlines seats that got "torqued" when the door flew away at 16,000 feet. (Business Insider)

🗓 On The Agenda

The House and Senate are in. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington. (all times Eastern)

Today: Federal government offices in the D.C. area are closed because of the snow. (WUSA9)
5:30 p.m.: The Senate holds two roll call votes. 🗓️ Today's agenda
6:30 p.m.: First and last House votes. 🗓️ Today's agenda