Biden makes electability pitch amid campaign turmoil |
President Biden's team sought to sooth panicked Democrats on Thursday by laying out a pathway to victory, as the White House and campaign try to keep the lid on a revolt among the rank-and-file. Biden faces a high-stakes solo press conference at 6:30 p.m. tonight that could either alleviate some Democratic anxiety or add to intraparty panic. Democrats have been pushing Biden to do more unscripted events to prove he's up to campaigning, which will only become more important after reports that a Milwaukee radio station edited an interview with Biden under pressure from his campaign. Another bad performance in front of the cameras could unleash a wave of new calls for Biden to exit the race, although many lawmakers will be on airplanes traveling back to their districts for recess when he takes the stage. The New York Times reports that the three major broadcast networks will break away from scheduled programming to carry the press conference live. Senior Biden advisers Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon, and Biden campaign Chair Jen O'Malley Dillon, met with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill on Thursday to detail the state of the race. In a memo to supporters, the campaign outlined the case for riding with Biden: - The campaign acknowledged there has been "real" movement in the polls and "increased anxiety" following the debate.
- However, an ABC News/Ipsos national poll released Thursday found the race tied, with no change since April. "Our internal data and public polling show the same thing: this remains a margin-of-error race in key battleground states."
- The Biden campaign said that movement in the polls has not been a "sea change," but rather is driven by historically Democratic constituencies becoming undecided. "We have a very real path to consolidating their support since they are not considering Trump as an alternative."
- The campaign says there are "multiple pathways" to 270 electoral votes, but maintaining the "Blue Wall" of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is the "clearest pathway."
- The campaign said there is "no indication" another candidate would perform better than Biden because polling on hypothetical alternatives is "unreliable."
- A replacement candidate would face their own scrutiny and negative media attention, the campaign argued. The New York Times reports the Biden campaign has quietly been polling Vice President Harris's standing against Trump.
Takeaway: The polls have clearly moved in Trump's favor since the debate, although perhaps not as much as the media frenzy might suggest. Trump has small leads in most of the battlegrounds, and Biden's narrow path means he can't afford to lose even one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Trump has been campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania and will head back this weekend for a rally. Biden heads to Michigan on Friday. Part of the worry among Democrats is that a tied national race likely means Biden falls short in the battleground states and takes many down ballot Democrats with him. - Biden entered the 2020 election with a 9-point national lead. He ended up winning the national vote by 4 points, but the election only swung his way by the thinnest of margins in a handful of battleground states.
- From Sabato's Crystal Ball: "If the national popular vote were tied, we would expect Donald Trump to carry 10 additional House seats, compared to his 2020 result. If Trump won the popular vote by closer to three points, about where national polling suggests he is now, he could be positioned to flip about two-dozen previously Biden-won districts."
- The poll the Biden campaign cited that shows the race is tied also found that a majority of Democrats want him to step aside.
- The Hill's Niall Stanage has a nice recap of where the polling stands.
IT'S BEEN A CHAOTIC WEEK on Capitol Hill, and Democratic divisions remain on full display: - Sen. Peter Welch (Vt.) became the first Democrat in the Senate to call on Biden to drop out.
- There are now a dozen House Democrats calling on Biden to step aside. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), who is running for reelection in a key swing district, and Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) are the latest.
- Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) told CNN's Kasie Hunt he's "getting closer and closer" to calling on Biden to step aside. "To be able to make the case against [Trump] … should not be that hard. Biden has to do it. If he can't do it, then he's gotta let somebody else do it."
- Biden also has his defenders, such as Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.). Fetterman on Thursday ripped Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for questioning whether Biden will remain in the race.
Perspectives: - Ezra Klein: Democrats are drifting toward the worst of all possible worlds.
- Tim Alberta: Trump is planning for a landslide win.
Related coverage: |
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Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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© Kevin Wolf, Associated Press |
GOP bill to fund legislative branch fails on House floor
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Ten House Republicans joined Democrats to sink a GOP bill to fund the legislative branch on Thursday. GOP leadership had hoped to pass all 12 annual funding bills by the August recess, making Thursday's failure an embarrassing setback. From The Hill's Aris Folley: "The GOP-led measure was unlikely to become law in its current form...But the House's measure lays out Republican priorities, and leaders hoped passing it will give them leverage to ensure some of those priorities end up in the final bill." The 10 House Republicans who bucked party lines to sink the bill are outlined here. Several are members of the House Freedom Caucus, the group of conservative hardliners that have long been a thorn in the side of GOP leadership. That group is now embroiled in its own turmoil: - Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) has been ousted from the group.
- Good has privately indicated he will step down as chairman if a recount fails to reverse his primary loss to GOP challenger John McGuire.
- Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) is voluntarily leaving the group because he believes it's too insular. Others could follow.
The Hill's Emily Brooks has the full story here. Speaking of breaking from partisan ranks… Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) voted with Republicans on Thursday to block one of President Biden's judicial nominees. Judge Sarah Netburn has been at the center of controversy for ruling a transgender woman convicted of sex crimes be transferred to a women's prison, despite objections from the Bureau of Prisons. The Hill's Alexander Bolton has the full story here. More from Capitol Hill… |
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Democrats to emphasize Trump ties to Project 2025
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The Biden campaign will emphasize Project 2025, the policy blueprint from a conservative Washington think tank, in ads and events around the Republican National Convention next week. The focus on Project 2025, which was developed by the Heritage Foundation, has become a priority for Democrats as they seek to move the media narrative away from President Biden's struggles onto a potential second Trump administration. Democratic National Committee communications director Rosemary Boeglin said they'll be in Milwaukee next week to "expose [Trump's] extreme Project 2025 agenda." Trump has sought to distance himself from 900-page conservative governing agenda, saying in a social media post that efforts to tie him to it are "disinformation." Trump previously said he knew nothing about it or the people behind it. However, CNN reports that at least 140 people who collaborated on it worked in the Trump administration, including former chief of staff Mark Meadows, adviser Stephen Miller and attorney Jay Sekulow. On the GOP side... Hill Republicans plan to hound Democrats with accusations they conspired to conceal information about Biden's health. - The House campaign arm released new digital ads targeting vulnerable House Democrats who met privately with Biden, accusing them of covering up his health concerns.
- The House Oversight Committee will issue three subpoenas to senior White House aides for depositions on Biden's health, Axios reports.
- Speaker Johnson said Thursday it's the "biggest political cover-up that we have ever seen."
- Republican Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno showed up at Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-Ohio) office in Washington to accuse him of participating "in the greatest coverup in American history."
- Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) called Biden's health a "Watergate moment" for Democrats.
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© AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin |
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Biden turmoil overshadows NATO summit
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The NATO summit in Washington has largely been drowned out by the turmoil surrounding President Biden's campaign. The Hill's Brad Dress has the rundown on the political dynamics surrounding NATO, and how a potential second Trump administration "has only fueled concerns in Europe about the U.S. under Trump weakening or leaving NATO." Trump will meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at Mar-a-lago later today. Related coverage: |
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"Why didn't the media question Biden's fitness until now?," by Jeffrey M. McCall for The Hill. "Trump's new strategy: Act normal," by Chris Lehmann for The Nation. |
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4 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. 39 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. 61 days until the second presidential debate. 117 days until the 2024 general election. 193 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Thursday - Biden holds a solo press conference at 6:30 p.m. Watch here
Friday - Biden travels to Detroit for a campaign event.
Saturday - Trump holds a campaign rally in Butler, Pa.
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