12:30 Report — How telling is Harris-Trump polling?

Presented by Electronic Payments Coalition — 🪨 Speaker Johnson between a rock and a hard place

View Online  12:30 REPORT PRESENTED BY It's Friday the 13th! Anything spooky 👻 happen to you this morning? Here's what's going on today: Trump's holding a press conference in Los Angeles.. Despite Harris's debate bump, Democrats can't help but think about 2016. Trump has put Speaker Johnson in an incredibly tough position. JD Vance is making the Sunday show rounds this weekend. There was a funny glitch during a CNN hit this morning. Clip is below.   I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.   🚌 On The Campaign Trail Democrats' worry: 'I think I've seen this film before …': ©  GIPHY/CBC "… and I didn't like the ending." Democrats are riding the high from Vice President Harris's winning debate performance, but there's a lingering fear they can't shake: Former President Trump has consistently outperformed his poll numbers in past election cycles.   The Hill's Niall Stanage spoke with pollsters, who acknowledged that turnout is one of the hardest models to predict. One pollster pointed out that Trump is winning among men who have not voted. That's very hard to adjust for — how many will actually turn out on Election Day? — so pollsters are having to make educated guesses.   Where does polling stand?: The Hill and Decision Desk HQ's polling average shows Harris with a 3.4 percentage point lead nationally and a 54 percent chance of winning. But like any pollster will tell you — look at state polls, not national polls. Here are a few key states:   🟣 Arizona: Harris and Trump are tied. 🔴 Florida: Trump has a 3.3 percentage point lead. 🟣 Michigan: Harris has a 0.8 percentage point lead. 🟣 Nevada: Harris has a 0.5 percentage point lead. 🔵 New Hampshire: Harris has a 4.9 percentage point lead. 🟣 North Carolina: Harris has a 0.1 percentage point lead. 🟣 Pennsylvania: Harris has a 0.4 percentage point lead. 🔵 Wisconsin: Harris has a 3 percentage point lead.   Now keeping in mind that pollsters are largely guessing about turnout, it's a total crapshoot how the chips will fall.   Will Taylor Swift's endorsement actually change anything?: The New York Times compared Swift's endorsement to past celebrity endorsements. Basically, it's hard to measure how much celebrity endorsements may help, but Taylor Swift could be an exception. Read the analysis ➤ HAPPENING NOW:  Trump is holding a press conference at his private golf club in Los Angeles. 💻 Livestream ➤  INTERESTING READ ABOUT PROJECT 2025'S PLOT TWIST: The Heritage Foundation's conservative blueprint — "Project 2025" — has become a major headache for Trump. Politico's Michael Schaffer writes how the conservative think tank's memo "was once touted as the future of conservatism. Now it's the ultimate cautionary tale."   Read: 'After Project 2025, Knives Are Out for Heritage — On the Right' ➤  MORE CAMPAIGN TRAIL READS: 'When Political Memes Take on a Lie of Their Own': "As campaigns increasingly communicate via meme, cat videos are outranking reality." The New York Times   'With Kamala Harris on the ballot, Trump portrays California as a hellscape': The Washington Post   'Trump Allies Are Working on Plans to Privatize Fannie and Freddie': The Washington Post   'Fox News cleans up another Trump mess': Washington Post op-ed from Dana Milbank   'The catastrophic scenario of an Electoral College tie looms': Op-ed in The Hill ➤  TIDBIT — THE NUMBER OF PHOTOGS HAS BEEN LIMITED:  The White House News Photographers Association claims the Harris campaign has cut the number of journalists who travel with her — and it's disproportionately affecting photographers, according to The Washington Post. 💰 In Congress Not envious of Mike Johnson at the moment: ©  GIPHY/GIPHY News Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is navigating some tricky dynamics in averting a shutdown at the end of the month, with his pseudo-boss — former President Trump ­— single-handedly complicating it.   The gist: Trump wants government funding paired with a controversial proof-of-citizenship proposal. Some Republicans opposed it, and Johnson didn't have the votes, so he yanked the vote. Now, they're left scrambling. If Johnson stays true to Trump's request, the government will likely shut down — and that's not good politics this close to an election. But if Johnson ignores Trump's pressuring, he could be on the outs.   💡 Why this matters: "Corralling the slim House GOP majority to support any kind of partisan continuing resolution (CR) was already a tall order. But as Johnson and GOP leaders regroup and weigh whether they can get any wins on the must-pass legislation before the election, Trump's demands are kicking the difficulty of the Speaker's mission up a notch."   Read Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell's reporting: 'Trump complicates Speaker Johnson's plan to avoid government shutdown' Content from our sponsor: Electronic Payments Coalition Don't buy corporate mega-stores' hypocrisy Corporate mega-stores want backdoor price controls to save money on credit card services, but raised prices on essentials like eggs and milk. Learn how they flip-flop on government price controls.  🐝 Internet Buzz 🥜 Celebrate: Today is National Peanut Day! To celebrate, I'm planning to make these no-bake chocolate peanut butter bars from Sally's Baking Addiction. How good do they look?!   🎆 This clip made me cry-laugh: During a CNN interview this morning, the guest's video stream started adding effects, like fireworks and a thumb's up. The hosts' reactions were incredible. 📹 Watch the clip   🍦 Of course a Harris-inspired ice cream would involve coconut: Ben & Jerry's co-founders unveiled a Kamala Harris-themed ice cream flavor. It's coconut-flavored ice cream with caramel and patriotic-themed sprinkles. For the next month, an ice cream truck will make stops in more than 20 cities in battleground states, giving out free scoops.  🍨 Details   ⚠️ Snack foods (like Goldfish) may start coming with a warning label: It would show high levels of sodium, saturated fat and added sugar. Here's what those warning labels could look like. ©  AP ☃️ Winter prediction?: A weak and short La Niña is coming later this fall. Read KXAN's assessment of how this could affect winter this year. The gist: It depends where you're located. 📆 On The Agenda The House and Senate are out for the weekend. President Biden is in Washington, and Vice President Harris is in Pennsylvania. (all times Eastern) Noon: Biden speaks at a brunch in celebration of Black excellence. 💻 Livestream 1:15 p.m.: Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a news conference following his trip to Ukraine and Poland. 💻 Livestream 2:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream 4:30 p.m.: Biden meets with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 6 p.m.: Biden leaves for Delaware. 6:35 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. 💻 Livestream 9:30 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Las Vegas. 💻 Livestream Sunday morning: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will appear on CNN's "State of the Union," CBS's "Face the Nation" and NBC's "Meet the Press." 3 p.m. Monday: The Senate returns. 📆 Monday's agenda 👋 And Finally... It's been a week. Let's process the week along with this dog.   Can someone please hold his hand? Stay Engaged Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.   View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time! Privacy Policy  |  Manage Subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe  Sign Up for Other Newsletters 1625 K Street NW, 9th Floor, Washington, DC 20006 © 1998 - 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved.