Wednesday, March 12 | By Alexis Simendinger & Kristina Karisch |
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| ▪ Senate up next in shutdown showdown ▪ Social Security in Musk's crosshairs ▪ Ukraine endorsed U.S. ceasefire proposal ▪ Activist or terrorist sympathizer? Khalil's case |
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©️ The Associated Press | J. David Ake |
Senate takes up spending bill; Trump backs off on Canada tariffs |
Three days before a government funding deadline, the House on Tuesday narrowly passed a party-line stopgap funding bill that would mostly keep government funding at current levels through September. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) spent weeks shepherding the bill through his razor-thin House majority, which Democrats opposed in droves. The chamber cleared the measure in a largely party-line 217-213 vote, with just one Democrat — Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — bucking his party's leaders to back the measure. Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) was the lone GOP "no" vote. Passage of the stopgap in the House puts a pin on the first lower-chamber funding fight of President Trump's second term, which largely revolved around the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), overseen by Elon Musk. Republicans rallied around the stopgap in the name of allowing DOGE to continue its work in reducing the size of the government. Democrats demanded, albeit unsuccessfully, to include language that would limit DOGE's power. The successful vote marks a massive victory for Johnson, as well as Trump, who personally placed calls to House GOP holdouts urging them to vote for the package. "President Trump and Republicans in Congress will stop at nothing to deliver on that agenda," Johnson told reporters following the vote. "We are gonna continue to work hard, we will continue to stick together and get this job done, and it's an essential one." The New York Times: What's in the House bill? The bill now heads to the Senate, where Democrats appear ready to back down on challenges to the House bill ahead of the looming March 14 funding deadline. While several Senate Democrats have slammed the legislation — raising concerns about spending cuts included and instead pitching a shorter stopgap to allow more time for bipartisan negotiations on full-year bills — a number of members are withholding judgment, weighing their concerns with the bill against the political reality of potentially forcing a shutdown. The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) warned that a shutdown could play into Trump and Musk's strategy to eliminate federal programs. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said he will vote to keep the government open, even if he's not a fan of the House-passed funding stopgap. "I've been very clear, I'm not going to vote or withhold my vote that's going to shut down the government," Fetterman told The Hill. "For me, if the Democrats think that they want to burn the village down to save it, that's terrible optics and that's going to have serious impacts for millions and millions of people. I'm never going to vote for that kind of chaos." Top House Democrats, meanwhile, are pressing their fellow party members in the Senate to kill the spending bill, saying the proposal will hurt Americans around the country. "I wouldn't expect senators to vote for this," said Rep. Pete Aguilar (Calif.), the head of the House Democratic Caucus. "This is a bad bill. We did not negotiate this bill. They did not negotiate this bill. … In the interest of our national security, in the interest of American families, they need to vote no and beat back this bill." TRADE WAR: Trump's increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect today, drawing swift retaliation from Europe. The European Commission announced a two-stage retaliation covering $28 billion in EU exports. Ahead of the announcement, a European steel industry representative told Politico that the EU would "go full sledgehammer because they are so fed up with Trump." The escalations come as Trump on Tuesday doubled down on his widespread tariff threats despite a stock market downturn that has fueled anxiety about a possible recession. The president also escalated the tit for tat with Canada when he said his administration would increase planned steel and aluminum tariffs in response to an electricity surcharge the Ontario government imposed on the U.S. Later that day, Ontario Premier Doug Ford backed off from the threat. The White House has touted its tariff strategy against Canada as "retaliatory," arguing Trump is aiming for fair and balanced trade practices to protect American workers. It also justified the stock market dives over the past few days as "a snapshot" in time. "Our country had to do this. We had to go and do this," Trump said, while looking at Tesla cars along with Musk. "Other countries have taken away our business, they've taken away our jobs." Amid the shutdown drama, Senate Republicans are growing increasingly anxious about Trump's escalating trade wars, writes The Hill's Al Weaver. While most GOP members remain reluctant to criticize the move directly, some expressed worries about the effects on their home states. As Wall Street buckles under the tariff back-and-forth, Trump's stewardship of the economy is under new scrutiny. The Hill's Niall Stanage writes in The Memo that the question is whether a president known for doubling down will back off on a topic that even conservatives find unpopular, or whether he will be willing to endure some level of political pain to pursue his chosen policy. The Wall Street Journal: Trump's trade policy and economic messaging have rattled some of his own allies. |
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Smart Take
with Blake Burman |
| A status checkup 50 days in. Emerson College dropped a lengthy poll halfway into the first 100 days and we dug through the crosstabs. What stood out isn't necessarily how Democrats and Republicans feel about President Trump (you could predict those numbers yourselves). Rather, it's how independents view the administration so far. When it comes to the economy, for independents there's a clear view: the president's numbers are slightly underwater, but it's still too soon to tell. For example, when asked if Trump's economic policies are making the economy better or worse, 23 percent of independents said better, 32 percent said worse and 50 percent said there is no effect or it's too soon to tell. "This is basically a couple outs into the first inning," said Scott Tranter, data science director with our partners at Decision Desk HQ. "This is an indicator of what to watch for if you're the Trump administration." It's obviously very early, but that 50 percent number could dwindle as the months progress. How those numbers move could serve as an indicator of where independents are headed. |
Burman hosts "The Hill" weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation. |
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| - ⚖️ The Gavel, The Hill's new legal newsletter from reporters Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld, launches today. Each week they'll focus on all things courts and the emerging legal battles in Washington and across the country. Click here to sign up to get it in your inbox.
- The January midair collision between an Army Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet near Reagan Washington National Airport, which killed 67 people, underscored the prevalence of past near-miss incidents and "a serious safety issue." That's what Jennifer Homendy, chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, said Tuesday after a preliminary accident investigation. She called on the Federal Aviation Administration to "permanently prohibit helicopter operations" near DCA in certain situations.
- For the first time, Southwest Airlines will charge for checked bags beginning May 28 as it continues to modify its business model. How much did U.S. airlines pocket in baggage fees last year? $5 billion.
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©️ The Associated Press | Jose Luis Magana |
👉 SOCIAL SECURITY: Trump and adviser Musk recently claimed without evidence or corroborating data that Social Security suffers from widespread fraud and should shed $500 billion to $700 billion in allegedly wasted spending. That rhetoric confounds experts and Social Security advocates, who say those claims are myths. They fear massive program reductions are looming on the horizon, reports The Hill's Nathaniel Weixel. Candidate Trump assured voters that Social Security, which provides benefits to more than 71 million people, and Medicare, the health care program that covers more than 67 million seniors, would not be touched if he returned to the Oval Office. Trump last year posted a video on his campaign website saying, "Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security." He told Michigan rallygoers more than a year ago, "We don't have to play around with Social Security and Medicare." And the White House repeated that message Tuesday in a press release: "The Trump Administration will not cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid benefits." But, as CNN reported in 2024, Trump had been open to the idea of cutting entitlements before his presidential bid. His campaign spokesperson, now his White House press secretary, drew a distinction between Trump's thoughts about cutting Social Security "benefits" and rooting out "waste" in federal entitlement programs. Musk, who initially estimated he could find $2 trillion in federal savings before he and Trump quickly revised that bold target to "hundreds of billions of dollars," understood from the outset that the bulk of government spending supports Social Security, Medicare and defense. Even Trump's frequent promises to leave third-rail entitlements untouched are under revision. The president vows to spend less on many federal programs while cutting taxes and balancing the federal budget. THAT GOAL is not politically painless. Democrats on Capitol Hill are experts at wielding Social Security, the most popular federal program, as a weapon and a shield. "They don't learn," Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the minority leader, told The New York Times as he eyed Republicans. "Their biggest mistake was going after Social Security when George Bush was president. And now they are doing it again," he said. The House Speaker on Tuesday spoke to an audience about his daily need to sweep up among his Republican colleagues after Musk issues public pronouncements that affect budgeting and other legislative aims. "He can blow the whole thing up," Johnson said. Musk this week said his DOGE team would scrutinize Social Security and entitlement spending. He described allegedly fraudulent transactions and a conspiracy theory that Democrats tap the programs as a "gigantic magnet to attract illegal immigrants and have them stay in the country." During a February podcast conversation, Musk described Social Security as "the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time." CHALKED UP: After weeks of predictions and public warnings, the administration fired nearly half the Education Department workforce, or 1,315 employees, on Tuesday. Trump's goal is to send federal education appropriations to the states while shifting certain federal education programs to other agencies, including student loans. Trump's move will not impact student aid, Free Application for Federal Student Aid forms, formula funding to states, operations for students with disabilities, civil rights investigations or any statute-mandated obligations from Congress, an official said. Education Secretary Linda McMahon, who concedes only Congress can do away with the department, described the "reduction in force" as a "significant step toward restoring the greatness of the United States education system." ▪ The Hill: Musk is facing mounting public and investor criticism. And his companies are taking a beating. Tesla's stock plummeted more than 50 percent since late last year, while anti-DOGE demonstrations are popping up at the electric vehicle company's stores across the country. ▪ The New York Times: Want to track Trump's major actions since Jan. 20? Check a running list. ▪ The Washington Post: Taxpayers own a museum's worth of precious artworks and historical treasures maintained in locations nationwide by General Services Administration experts who recently received pink slips under Trump's DOGE initiative. Now what? ▪ Politico: An official with the U.S. Agency for International Development told remaining staff members they should shred and burn their government documents. |
- The House will hold a pro forma session on Friday at 9 a.m. House Democrats will huddle in Leesburg, Va., through Friday for an issues conference.
- The Senate will convene at 10 a.m.
- The president will meet with Ireland's leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, at the White House. (The discussion is a week ahead of St. Patrick's Day because Congress will be in recess on March 17). Trump will join lawmakers at noon on Capitol Hill for an annual luncheon with Ireland's prime minister. The president will host a 5 p.m. reception with Martin at the White House.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio today will arrive in Charlevoix, Quebec, Canada, and remain through Friday to meet with counterparts at the Group of Seven foreign ministers' meeting. He will meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and likely discuss trade with the U.S. "Our obligation is to try, to the extent possible, to not allow the things we work on together to be impacted negatively by the things we disagree on right now," Rubio told reporters.
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©️ The Associated Press | Seth Wenig |
IMMIGRATION: The arrest of Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia University graduate and pro-Palestinian protester, marks a significant escalation in Trump's immigration crackdown. A legal immigrant not charged with a crime is in U.S. custody. The Trump administration is making clear that green card holder Khalil, who has a court appearance set for today, was arrested because of his participation in pro-Palestinian campus demonstrations last year. Trump said Monday that Khalil will be the first of many foreign students deported as "terrorist sympathizers." Legal experts told The Hill's Lexi Lonas Cochran the intention is obvious: to frighten other would-be activists and to chill political protests. They also say Khalil's detention presents serious constitutional problems. Progressives want Democrats to do more to make the detention of Khalil central in their battle against the Trump administration, seeing it as touching on their key values to appeal to voters lost in the last election. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would move to deport additional "Hamas supporters" in the country on visas or green cards. The Hill's Jared Gans and Julia Mueller write the move could give an opening for Democrats on the moral grounds of free speech and civil rights could prove a wise gambit that considers progressive and young liberal voters. The Hill: Democrats in Congress condemn Khalil's arrest by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. "This should scare everyone," warned Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.). MESSAGING: When California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) launched his podcast last week, his comments on transgender athletes made headlines, sparking backlash from both sides of the aisle. But it got attention. Since November, The Hill's Amie Parnes reports Democrats have been trying to reclaim the political conversation, anxious to reconnect with voters not just behind a podium or in social media posts. "Democrats are feeling more license and permission to go out and take their message to communities," said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. |
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©️ The Associated Press | Saul Loeb, AFP |
UKRAINE: The White House will immediately lift its pause on military and intelligence support for Ukraine after Kyiv endorsed a U.S. ceasefire proposal. The announcement comes as officials from Ukraine and the U.S. met in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, started by Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. "Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation," the countries said in a joint statement. "The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace." It was not immediately clear whether Moscow would accept the proposal. Rubio said the ball is now in Russia's court. "Our hope is that the Russians will say yes, that they will also agree, so the shooting will stop, the killing will stop, the dying will stop, and the talks can begin about how to end this war permanently, in a way that's acceptable and enduring for both sides," he said Tuesday. Tuesday marked the first meeting between Ukraine and the U.S. since Trump and Vice President Vance berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a televised Oval Office meeting last month. The Trump administration since then has frozen military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. Zelensky has been cultivating ties with European leaders and sending conciliatory messages to the White House. White House officials held similar meetings in Saudi Arabia with Russian officials last month. But the three countries appear to have very different ideas about what any ceasefire should look like. ▪ Politico: What to know about Trump's Ukraine ceasefire plan. ▪ Al Jazeera: After Trump froze aid, is Ukraine's military holding on against Russia? ▪ Reuters: Israeli fire killed four Palestinians in Gaza amid new ceasefire talks. ▪ Axios: Greenland's center-right opposition party claimed victory in the territory's election Tuesday, in what could be one of the most consequential in its history as Trump floats annexation. |
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©️ The Associated Press | Alex Brandon |
And finally … ☘️ Who doesn't need some better luck this week? Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Micheál Martin, who is scheduled to join the president at the White House today, said last week, "I have never met Donald Trump, but I am looking forward to meeting with him. … We have to keep engaging with the United States." A gift of shamrocks in a crystal bowl at the White House is a long tradition that represents the bonds between the people of Ireland and America. More than 9 percent of the U.S. population boasts of Irish ancestry, including at least 23 former presidents, with John F. Kennedy, Barack Obama and Joe Biden among them. Reuters: Irish prime minister faces balancing act at talks with Trump. |
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