Friday, August 8 | By Kristina Karisch & Elizabeth Crisp |
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| ▪ Trump revives battle over census ▪ What gerrymandering means for voters ▪ FBI fires officials at odds with White House ▪ Israel cabinet backs Gaza City takeover plan |
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© The Associated Press | Alex Brandon |
Trump turbocharges redistricting fight
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President Trump is raising the stakes of the midterms redistricting fight with his push to revive a battle over the census. Trump on Thursday directed the Commerce Department to start work on a "new" census. Work is already underway for the census scheduled for 2030. The president said in a Truth Social post that the next census should not count those who are in the country without authorization and use the "results and information gained" from the 2024 presidential election. The plan would likely face significant legal hurdles, writes The Hill's Jared Gans. The Constitution's 14th Amendment says the decennial census should be conducted on the basis of the total number of people in each state. It was unclear Thursday whether the president was calling for a mid-decade census or changes to the next one in 2030. Still, the push adds a new dimension to the fierce redistricting battle playing out across the country, as Republicans seek to gain the upper hand ahead of next year's midterm elections. Trump's call for a new census shows he's doubling down on this strategy of adjusting the terms of engagement in the elections to come, Gans reported. "From a messaging standpoint, it is ingenious to push the envelope on this front," Republican strategist Ford O'Connell told The Hill. Trump himself kicked off the redistricting arms race with his call for Texas Republicans to approve a new congressional map that aims to give the GOP five more seats in the state in next year's midterms. The president said earlier this week the GOP is "entitled" to five more seats. ▪ The Associated Press: Can Trump hold a census in the middle of a decade and exclude immigrants in the country illegally? ▪ ABC News: How gerrymandering has reshaped the political map for red and blue states. ▪ The Atlantic: How Democrats tied their own hands on redistricting. LONE STAR STANDOFF: Democrats in Congress are defending the Democratic legislators who fled the Lone Star State in an effort to block the GOP-controlled Legislature from moving ahead with redrawn maps. The group of more than 50 Texas House Democrats are scattered across various blue states, vowing to wait out the remainder of the special session. Claims by Texas Republicans that the FBI is getting involved in efforts to track down and possibly detain the Democratic state lawmakers are getting strong pushback from Democrats in Congress. Democratic members are investigating how involved the FBI is in the Texas redistricting battle, The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports, and lawmakers who have weighed in on the matter say FBI intervention would be an egregious politicization of the nation's top law enforcement agency. Responding to a claim by Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) that the FBI will help find the lawmakers who fled the Lone Star State, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) said: "These extremists don't give a damn about public safety." Jeffries said in a Thursday interview with ABC News that the FBI lacks the legal authority to intervene in a state-level political dispute. "There would be no authority for the FBI to target Democrats from the Texas Legislature in connection with an act that Democrats have taken that is authorized by the Texas Constitution," he said, adding that the redistricting effort in Texas is "a clear power grab because Donald Trump and House Republicans are desperate to try to hold on to their thin majority in the House of Representatives." Cornyn made the call for FBI involvement, which Gov. Greg Abbott (R) appeared to confirm Thursday when he wrote on social media that Texas authorities and the FBI were "tracking down" the lawmakers. "Those who received benefits for skipping a vote face removal from office and potential bribery charges," he wrote. "In Texas, there are consequences for your actions." Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) — who is challenging Cornyn for his Senate seat — on Thursday asked an Illinois court to enforce arrest warrants against the Democratic lawmakers. The warrants are only enforceable within state lines, a largely symbolic threat that ensures any members who return to Texas can be apprehended and returned to the House chamber. It remains unclear what the FBI has agreed to in terms of aiding Republicans. Experts who spoke with The Hill on Wednesday expressed skepticism that the FBI even had the jurisdiction to aid Texas Republicans in forcing Democrats to return to the state. "I don't see why the FBI would be involved in this at all," said Richard Painter, who served as associate counsel in the George W. Bush White House. "I mean this is Texas politics and the FBI has no business trying to enforce Texas state law." BACKFIRE? Various other states have now pushed for midcycle redistricting. Red states, including Indiana, Florida and Missouri, are looking to follow the Lone Star State's example. Blue states, including New York, New Jersey and California, are pushing to redraw their own maps, sometimes in the face of years of Democratic pushes for more equitable maps and independent redistricting commissions. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) told reporters this week that California is charging ahead with preparations for potential redistricting ahead of the midterms "in response to the existential realities that we're now facing." "We're going to fight fire with fire," Newsom said. Blue state Republicans at risk of retaliatory redistricting efforts are sounding the alarm on what they dub a Trump-directed Texas power grab. The Hill's Emily Brooks and Caroline Vakil write the Republicans worry efforts to undergo mid-decade districting could ultimately backfire in their home states. Mid-decade redistricting being considered in California alone could cancel out Republicans' wins in Texas. "I think the whole thing is pretty disgusting," Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), whose reelection could be at risk if California Democrats pursue new maps, told The Hill of the redistricting battles across the country. He said constituents don't want politicians manufacturing "a temporary gain by — any side — manipulating lines." |
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© The Associated Press | Michael Conroy |
The Hill's Elizabeth Crisp spoke with Princeton University professor Samuel Wang, who leads the university's nonpartisan Gerrymandering Project that tracks and seeks to eliminate partisan mapmaking. This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity and length. THE HILL: What are your thoughts on the Texas redistricting fight and the tit for tat that it seems to have sparked? WANG: The Texas redistricting is just an intensification of what Texas already did with its current gerrymander, which already got an F from the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. It's probably worth three seats for Republicans, but by cutting things closer there is both downside risk (they could underperform that) or they could get the five seats that news outlets are claiming. A lot of the talk may not turn into action, since many states either have no legal path, or are already gerrymandered. The only options that will produce multiple seats are Ohio and Florida (for Republicans) and California (for Democrats). Do you think that there is a shift toward more gerrymandering? Or is it just becoming more explicit? No, it's the opposite — gerrymandering has decreased. Since its peak in 2010, gerrymandering has decreased thanks to independent commissions, state court actions, and bipartisan government. But public attention has increased massively, which is a good thing. Do you think that it is possible to have more competitive or purple/swing districts in the current climate? Yes, it is possible. Since 2012, the number of competitive swing congressional districts has nearly doubled. See [this] Atlantic piece. Much of what people think of as gerrymandering is just the fact that most districts are partisan, because of voters sorting themselves. Gerrymandering starts from that and makes things worse. Could things get better? Yes! Independent commissions by citizen initiative (Ohio, Illinois), court actions (Wisconsin, Utah), and bipartisan governance (Pennsylvania, Minnesota) can all chip away at the problem. Not Texas, though. Sadly, there are no laws in Texas that restrict congressional redistricting. It all depends on each state's laws. What is the direct impact to voters when the goals are to intentionally create "red" or "blue" districts? Gerrymandering reduces competition. Even worse than your topic (congressional redistricting) is legislative redistricting, where there is a direct effect on how people are governed. In that case, legislative gerrymanders in Texas and Illinois do not cancel out. |
FBI PURGE: Brian Driscoll, who briefly served as acting FBI director at the start of Trump's second term and who refused to turn over a list of agents who worked on Jan. 6 cases, is being fired. The Hill's Rebecca Beitsch reports that Driscoll has been asked to leave the bureau by today and that his removal seems to be part of a wider purge in the agency. "Last night I was informed that tomorrow will be my last day in the FBI. I understand that you may have a lot of questions regarding why, for which I currently have no answers. No cause has been articulated at this time," Driscoll wrote in a note to staffers that one shared on LinkedIn. "Please know that it has been the honor of my life to serve alongside each of you. Thank you for allowing me to stand on your shoulders throughout it all. Our collective sacrifices for those we serve is, and will always be, worth it. I regret nothing. You are my heroes, and I remain in your debt," he continued. Steve Jensen, the assistant director in charge of the Washington Field Office, reportedly also was asked to leave, along with agent Walter Giardina, who worked on a number of Trump-related cases. The FBI Agents Association said in a statement that it was concerned by reports of the firings of senior leaders and that it was reviewing legal avenues to defend agents who were only doing their jobs. "Agents are not given the option to pick and choose their cases, and these Agents carried out their assignments with professionalism and integrity," the agents' union said. "Most importantly, they followed the law." |
- The president will hold bilateral meetings with the prime ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. At 4:15 p.m., he will participate in a trilateral signing with both prime ministers.
- The House and Senate are in recess until September.
- Morning Report's Alexis Simendinger will return on Monday.
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TOOLS OF THE TRADE: Trump rounded out the first day of his new sweeping tariff overhaul by bringing out charts to defend the state of the economy during an event in the Oval Office on Thursday afternoon. The president and conservative economist Stephen Moore mocked a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that found the economy added about 250,000 fewer jobs than previously thought in recent months. The duo displayed massive charts highlighting the economy under Trump compared to the Biden administration. "This one chart really says it better than anything, if you look at this. This is great. But this chart is pretty amazing," the president said while holding up a diagram Moore made showing median household income growth. The Washington Post reported that Moore and his team at the nonpartisan Committee to Unleash Prosperity created a new model, using data from monthly Census surveys, to predict national income figures with a 3 percent error rate. Their findings were the basis for the charts Trump displayed in the Oval Office. "This is going to be a big deal for us because no one else has just figured out how to do this," Moore told the Post. "It's very positive for Trump." "He likes data, especially if it's good news," Moore added. The effort to highlight more positive economic material came as Trump again claimed without evidence that BLS numbers were manipulated to make him look bad. Trump has faced criticism from some economists and others over his decision to fire the BLS commissioner who produced last week's report showing dismal job growth. Trump has also defended his move to impose sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on most U.S. trade partners, which went into effect Thursday after repeated delays and negotiations to work on more favorable agreements. "Tariffs are flowing into the USA at levels not thought even possible," the president said Thursday morning. "We are trying to rebalance trade in America's favor. You know, President Trump has said, and I've said we want to bring back the high-precision manufacturing jobs," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in appearance on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Thursday. "We want to get rid of these big deficits that we have with countries that have created these big surpluses and gutted our manufacturing base and have been terrible for American workers." Economist and Fox Business host Larry Kudlow, who was director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, insisted this week the worst predictions about Trump's tariffs have not come to fruition. "All the gloom and doom, tariff inflation, tariff recession, tariff catastrophe, none of that has happened, OK? And in fact, as you noted earlier, the tariff revenues are pouring in," Kudlow said Thursday in a Fox News interview. FED UP: Meanwhile, Trump has named his new pick to join the Federal Reserve's board of governors, following Adriana Kugler's early retirement announcement last week. Trump's new nominee is Stephen Miran, who has been a top economic adviser to the president since his return to office in January. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have chosen Dr. Stephen Miran, current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, to serve in the just vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January 31, 2026," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. "In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement." Miran is a vocal critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump has been openly feuding with over interest rates. |
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© The Associated Press | Mikhail Sinitsyn, Sputnik |
BILATERAL TALKS: Trump is eyeing a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as next week as he pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine, a potential face-to-face gathering that carries potential risks for the White House at a time when it's gotten tougher on Moscow. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Putin as Russia carries out strikes despite U.S. calls for a pause in the fighting. The administration on Wednesday announced tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil, and additional sanctions on Russia are set to take effect today. The president told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that Putin doesn't have to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in order for Trump to sit down with the Russian leader, walking back a White House statement from earlier in the day. "No, he would like to meet with me, and I'll do whatever I can to stop the killing," Trump said. "So last month, they lost 14,000 people — killed. Every week is [4,000] or 5,000 people. So I don't like long waits. I think it's a shame." Much is still unknown about the meeting, including when, where and whether it will happen. The Hill's Brett Samuels and Laura Kelly break down five key questions. ▪ BBC: Why Trump-Putin talks are unlikely to bring a rapid end to the Ukraine war. ▪ CNN: Five ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end. ▪ CNBC: Russia and the United Arab Emirates double down on trade, testing U.S. limits. ALL OF GAZA: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday the Israeli military will begin a new offensive to occupy the entire Gaza Strip in an effort to root out Hamas. The Israeli security Cabinet approved the plan today. Earlier in the week, senior military officials pushed back against the plan, warning that expanding operations could endanger the hostages and kill more Palestinian civilians. The announcement comes 23 months into a war in which Israeli attacks have killed at least 61,000 Palestinians, a third of them children, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. In an interview with Fox News, Netanyahu was asked if Israel would take control of the whole enclave. "We intend to, in order to assure our security, remove Hamas there, enable the population to be free of Gaza, and to pass it to civilian governance that is not Hamas and not anyone advocating the destruction of Israel," Netanyahu said. "We don't want to keep" Gaza, he added. "We want to have a security perimeter. We don't want to govern it. We don't want to be there as a governing body. We want to hand it over to Arab forces that will govern it properly without threatening us, and giving Gazans a good life." ▪ Axios: Senior United Nations aid officials met Wednesday with the chair of the U.S.- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. ▪ Reuters: The U.S. presented Lebanon with a proposal for disarming Hezbollah by the end of the year, along with ending Israel's military operations in the country. ▪ The Hill: The Department of Justice on Thursday upped the reward for information that leads to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Maduro was indicted in 2020 on U.S. charges of narco-terrorism for allegedly attempting to weaponize cocaine. |
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- India's 50 percent tariff is a US sanction in disguise, columnist Andy Mukherjee writes in Bloomberg.
- Bring back the presidential fitness test, by The Washington Post editorial board.
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© The Associated Press | Elise Amendola |
And finally… 👏👏👏 Kudos to our Morning Report quiz winners! We were inspired by the growing interest in redistricting and how some politicians are now openly discussing efforts to maximize partisan advantages in House maps. Readers clearly are paying attention to the Texas redistricting fight and the push for more guaranteed "blue" or "red" seats. Here's who went 4/4: Mike Collins, Jack Barshay, Robert Bradley, Mark R. Williamson, Linda L. Field, Peter Sprofera, William Bennett, James Morris, Rick Schmidtk, Carmine Petracca, Alan Johnson, Chuck Schoenenberger, Harry Strulovici, Joseph Webster, Pam Manges, William Chittam, Pavel Peykov, William D. Moore, Lynn Gardner, John van Santen, Carmine Petracca, Stan Wasser, Joe Atchue, Steve James, Savannah Petracca and Brian Hogan. Vice President Elbridge Gerry, while serving as the Massachusetts governor in 1812, signed off on a new state Senate map that included a district in the Boston area many likened to a salamander shape. The Boston Gazette described the curiously cut district as the "Gerry-mander," and the term stuck (no longer needing a hyphen). Today, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 18 districts as "toss ups" — meaning the 417 other House districts are packed with reliably Republican voters or Democrats. Redistricting typically takes place every 10 years, on the heels of new Census data. |
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