With just more than one year left before Election Day 2026, the race for control of the House seems to be a toss-up while the GOP has the advantage in holding on to the Senate.
Following next week's elections in Virginia and New Jersey, which will be seen as indicators of the parties' strength heading into 2026, the focus will quickly shift to the midterms, which will determine much about how the latter half of President Trump's second term will play out.
Historic trends should benefit the Democrats in their race to win back a majority in the House. The party needs to net three seats to win the majority, and the president's party has lost seats in the House in almost every midterm election in modern history.
In Decision Desk HQ's (DDHQ) average of the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters if they plan to vote Democratic or Republican in the congressional election, Democrats lead by about 3 points. They've held a lead by varying amounts consistently in the polling index since June.
Generic ballot an indicator
While not an exact measure, the generic congressional ballot is seen as an indicator of which party is likely to win the House in the next election.
But Scott Tranter, director of data science for DDHQ, said he expects volatility to come with the generic ballot and considers the race for the House to be a toss-up.
"I think we're going to see some volatility over the next few months on the generic ballot, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the average go down a couple of points and then pop back up," he told Morning Report.
Mid-decade redistricting is looming over the House battle, as multiple states move to redraw their congressional district lines ahead of the midterms to try to win as many seats for one party as possible.
Texas, Missouri and North Carolina Republicans have already pushed through maps that are likely to net the GOP seats in next year's elections. Democrats have responded to these efforts, with California proposing a ballot measure to allow the state Legislature to redraw its lines and net their party up to five seats next year.
But Republicans likely have a greater number of pickup opportunities through the redistricting process. A few other states are considering possible changes to their maps, though the total number of seats each party will gain through this process will likely remain murky for at least a few months.
Tranter said the best scenario for Democrats is for Republicans to only net four to six seats through this process, while the worst-case scenario is for the GOP to pick up 10 to 15 seats. And every seat could matter with the House so narrowly divided.
Tranter said Democrats are "certainly" in a better spot than they were months ago, but they likely still need to improve to be in a stronger position to retake the House.
"Plus 3 [percentage points in the generic congressional ballot] is pretty good for them, but you put the redistricting machinations in, plus 3 doesn't look like it'll be enough," he said.
Senate an uphill battle for Democrats
Democrats have more of an uphill battle in trying to win the Senate, as Tranter gave them a 1 in 3 chance of winning back the majority in 2026.
Republicans have a 53-47 advantage, which would require Democrats to net four seats next year to take control of the chamber and avoid Vice President Vance serving as a tiebreaker vote. But Democrats are already defending seats in a few key battlegrounds they must hold on to to even have a chance.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is running for reelection next year in Georgia, which Trump won in 2024, while Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is retiring, vacating a seat also in Trump-won Michigan. Democrats have a path to hold on to both seats, but they are likely to be highly competitive races.
The election handicapper Cook Political Report rates both races as "toss-up."
Democrats also must flip the two most attainable Republican-held seats to have a chance at the majority. Sen. Susan Collins (R), a moderate who Democrats have failed to oust in the past, is running for another term in Maine, which has generally voted Democratic on the federal level.
But Collins has fended off past challenges, including in 2020 when she outperformed expectations significantly to easily win reelection.
Democrats are also hoping to flip a seat in competitive North Carolina, with former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) hoping to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R).
Even if all those states go well for Democrats, they will still need to flip two other states considered more of a reach.
The party is hopeful about top recruits who have launched candidacies, including former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) faces a serious primary challenge, but these are major hurdles to overcome.
"They're going to have to have more than one surprise, which is not impossible, but that's not like they've got one race to win. They've got a couple races they got to surprise on," Tranter said.
One possible positive sign for Democrats: A Gallup poll found Democrats leading in party identification by 7 points over Republicans, a shift from this time last year when Republicans led by 1 point.
Tranter said eyes should be on the next poll on this to determine if a trend is forming.
"Seven points is a lot of movement. It's not impossible. But if the next reading comes in and it's [Democrats] plus 4 to plus 7, I would say, we've got sort of a trend here," he said.
No comments:
Post a Comment