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MORNING REPORT

PRESENTED BY

Monday, November 27

by Kristina Karisch

Congress back as budget battle looms

Congress is back from Thanksgiving break this week, spoiling for a spending fight.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are predicting a GOP battle royale over federal spending at the start of the election year as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) struggles to balance House conservatives' demands of fiscal reform with keeping the government operating. While the new Speaker was able to prevent a shutdown earlier this month without massive repercussions, House Freedom Caucus members are signaling they won't give him another free pass — even though Johnson has limited power to get his way given Democratic control of the White House and Senate.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said earlier this month that Johnson's concessions to Democrats to pass funding stopgaps until January and February are "strike one, strike two," putting the Louisiana Republican at risk of getting kicked out of his job if he cuts another deal that fails to make significant cuts to federal spending. Johnson could suffer a similar fate to that of his predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), whose own negotiations with Democrats cost him the gavel in October.

A GOP senator who requested anonymity to discuss the bitter fighting between mainstream and conservative Republicans told The Hill's Alexander Bolton that there's no clear path forward.

"I want to know what we're going to do the first day we come back from the Thanksgiving break. Will there be another minibus?" the lawmaker said, referring to a package of three or four spending bills.

THE STAKES FOR THE UPCOMING FIGHT, warn Democrats and Republicans, will only get higher as the 2024 election approaches. President Biden looks vulnerable, as does the Democratic Senate majority. But Johnson's House majority is also in peril, meaning leaders across the board will have to act carefully — which likely means more brinkmanship.

Realistically, we'll see more of the same. There's nothing about the December holidays that is going to produce magic in the House dynamic right now. They're chaotically divided, they're dysfunctional," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). "The basic problem is there is a group of Republicans who are more interested in throwing grenades than governing. That's a recipe for disaster."

So far, the House has passed seven of the dozen full-year funding bills, clearing partisan fiscal 2024 spending plans for the Pentagon, departments of Homeland Security, Veterans Affairs, State, and a host of other agencies in recent months. But leadership is having trouble locking down support for the five remaining bills as some conservatives press for a harder line on reducing spending, while moderates are wary of what could end up on the cutting room floor. The Hill's Aris Folley breaks down some of the sticking points threatening each remaining bill.

The Hill: Johnson brings defense chops to the upcoming spending fight.

THE DYNAMICS IN CONGRESS HAVE BECOME SO "TOXIC" that some lawmakers are throwing in the towel altogether. With legislating all but brought to a halt and partisanship at an alarming high, The Hill's Mychael Schnell reports members of Congress in both parties are running for the exits, opting out of another term on Capitol Hill to vie for higher office or, in some cases, leave politics altogether.

Thirty House members — 19 Democrats and 11 Republicans — have announced that they will not seek reelection next year, covering a wide range of congressional seniority, post-House plans and reasons for jumping ship. Sixteen are retiring from public office, 11 are running for seats in the Senate, and three are eyeing other government positions.

"Right now, Washington, D.C. is broken," Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) said in a statement when announcing that she would not run for reelection. "[I]t is hard to get anything done."

▪ The New York Times: Here are the members of Congress giving up their seats, setting up a 2024 fight.

▪ USA Today: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) — who is challenging Biden for the 2024 nomination — is not running for reelection to Congress in 2024.

Still, one new member will join the lower chamber this week: Rep.-elect Celeste Maloy (R-Utah) won a Thanksgiving-week special election for the open U.S. House seat left vacant by her former boss, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah).

Morning Report's Alexis Simendinger will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) plans to hold a vote on Biden's request for billions in assistance for Ukraine and Israel as soon as the week of Dec. 4.
As the war in Ukraine grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefield.
House Republicans are bringing fresh attention to the Jan. 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob in ways that are earning praise from former President Trump and the party base.

Leading the Day

© The Associated Press / Stephanie Scarbrough | President Biden spoke to reporters in Nantucket, Mass., on Sunday about hostages freed by Hamas under a four-day cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas.

As the Tuesday morning end of the fragile four-day truce nears in Gaza and aid agencies race to boost deliveries to the besieged enclave, officials on both sides have said they are open to extending it to exchange more of the hostages taken by Hamas for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

Hamas said on Telegram that it is seeking an extension to "increase the number of those released from imprisonment." Under the terms of the agreement, the pause could be extended by a day for every additional 10 hostages released by Hamas beyond the initial 50 (The Washington Post). Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, said that if Hamas is "willing or able to release additional hostages, then there will be an extended pause" in the fighting (The Hill). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday evening that an extension "would be welcome," but also vowed to continue the war after the pause, with the aim of "eradicating Hamas."

In addition to the pause in fighting, the deal — negotiated by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt — included humanitarian aid for Gaza. Biden has said "the chances are real" that the pause could open the door to a longer cease-fire. The prime minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, told the Financial Times that the truce could be extended if Hamas was able to use the pause to locate additional hostages being held by other armed groups (The New York Times).

Hamas on Sunday freed 17 hostages held in Gaza, including a four-year-old American girl. The release of the hostages was mirrored by the freeing of Palestinian prisoners, the International Red Cross said. The organization said it was involved in releasing 19 of them — although the total figure remains unclear (The Times of Israel and CNN).

Biden welcomed Abigail Edan's release, saying in a speech from Nantucket, Mass., that she is receiving love, care and "the supportive services she needs" and adding that he was "hopeful this is not the end of the temporary truce."

▪ The New York Times: Here's what we know about the Israeli hostages released on Saturday.

▪ The Associated Press: Irregular meals, benches as beds. As freed hostages return to Israel, details of captivity emerge.

▪ Al Jazeera: Tears and joy as a second batch of 39 Palestinians was freed from Israeli prisons.

The Washington Post reports a group of about 20 distressed White House staffers requested a meeting with Biden's top advisers earlier this month to discuss the White House's strategy for curbing the number of civilian deaths in Gaza, the message it plans to send on the conflict and the postwar vision for the region. The meeting underscored how Biden's handling of his presidency's biggest foreign policy crisis to date is dividing the White House, and the limits of how much the United States has been able to influence Israel's actions as it largely refrains from criticizing them in public.

"I think the administration has realized from quite early on that it was in a bind," Ivo Daalder, chief executive of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs who served as NATO ambassador under former President Obama, told The Post, "and it was in a bind not only because of Biden's own predilection, which is real and strong and important," but because of the political costs of breaking with Israel.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Three men of Palestinian descent were shot on Saturday in Vermont. The trio was visiting Burlington for Thanksgiving; authorities are investigating the incident as a potential hate crime.

▪ The Hill: A United Nations official said the attacks in Gaza show a "disregard of international humanitarian law."

Where and When

The House meets Tuesday at noon.

The Senate convenes at 3 to resume consideration of the nomination of Jeffrey M. Bryan to be United States District Judge for the District of Minnesota.

The president receives the President's Daily Brief at 11 a.m. At 2 p.m., he will speak at the White House about new actions to strengthen supply chains and lower costs.

Vice President Harris will travel from Los Angeles to Houston with second gentleman Dough Emhoff. At 4:20 pm CT, she will speak at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus's "On the Road" event with Chair Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.), Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas), and Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. The second gentleman will attend. After, they will participate in a 5:50 p.m. CT campaign reception before traveling to Atlanta.

First lady Jill Biden will host a roundtable discussion with National Guard children and families at 12:30 p.m. at the White House and deliver a national holiday message at 1:30 p.m. She'll feature the White House decked out for the holidays while joined by National Guard leadership from across the country. Young guests and their families will see a performance by the cast of the North American tour of Disney's stage musical, "Frozen."

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Brussels at the NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting, including the first foreign ministers meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council.

Memorials and services for former first lady Rosalynn Carter, who died at age 96 last week at home in Plains, Ga., begin today and continue through her funeral on Wednesday in Atlanta and Sumter County, Ga. Information HERE.

The White House press briefing is scheduled for noon.

Zoom In

POLITICS

It's the week after Thanksgiving, which means caucus season is practically around the corner. We at Morning Report haven't forgotten about the holidays, but pollster's eyes are already trained on Iowa and beyond.

WHETHER BIDEN IS REELECTED IN 2024 will largely come down to how he performs in six key battleground states as he prepares for a rematch against Trump. Despite Biden's considerable pickups in 2020, some Democrats are sounding the alarm about his chances next year and are careful not to be overly optimistic. Recent polling out of the major swing states has only raised fears for the incumbent. The Hill's Hanna Trudo ranks the key swing states where Biden is in the most danger.

While Democrats are playing defense with the White House and the Senate — where the Democratic majority faces a difficult 2024 map to hold on to the upper chamber — the party thinks it can go on offense in the House and retake the gavel. The Hill's Julia Manchester reports on key races in New York and California, two states where the party has some optimism it can retake ground lost in the past.

OVER IN THE SENATE, Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) decision to retire has made the 2024 landscape even more complicated for Democrats. The party was already facing an uphill slog to hold on to its Senate majority, as it prepared to protect seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. Manchin's name on the ballot suggested a competitive race. Without him, the Senate seat seems wrapped for the GOP as a gift. The Hill's Al Weaver breaks down the five Senate seats most likely to flip.

Manchin's retirement is not only rocking Democrats' Senate majority prospects, but may give a boost to No Labels' efforts to organize a third-party ticket in 2024. The Hill's Mike Lillis reports that No Labels has for months been gathering information about the viability of a so-called "unity ticket" in next year's presidential race. Matt Bennett, a co-founder of left-center think tank Third Way, said No Labels' leadership appears to be "the only people on planet Earth who think they can win." Still, he described his level of concern about the risks associated with a No Labels ticket as extremely high.

"We honestly believe in a head to head race, these latest polls not withstanding, Biden wins because of the dynamics of the electorate," Bennett said, arguing Biden will be boosted by "the way that people are going to be thinking about Trump by the time we get to next November and are reminded of who he is and what he stands for. But we think if there's a well funded, reasonably high profile alleged moderate as an alternative, [Biden] loses."

2024 ROUNDUP

To beat Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is trying to speak to all sides of a fractured GOP. Her campaign will test what political strategists and observers of her rise in politics have said is among her greatest political skills: an ability to massage her message to the moment.
Trump drew cheers and some boos in Haley's backyard at the Clemson-South Carolina football game this weekend.
The third party, independent and Democratic primary lane is getting crowded as candidates like Jill Stein, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Phillips assess if they can rise from being top-ticket wannabes to viable choices for voters.
Election officials are preparing to count votes a lot faster in 2024, desperate to avoid a repeat of the long ballot count that left the winner of the presidential race uncertain for days in 2020.
Abortion rights advocates are looking to amend state constitutions in states such as Nevada, Arizona and Florida in an effort to establish or strengthen existing abortion protections — an effort that could energize the Democratic base in a critical election year.

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Elsewhere

Courts

THE SUPREME COURT WILL RETURN for its final argument session of the year today, hearing several major finance and administrative law disputes. Among the highlights of the two-week session include the Justice Department's bid to block Purdue Pharma's bankruptcy deal and a couple's attempt to strike down a key provision in Republicans' 2017 overhaul of the tax system. The Hill's Zach Schonfeld takes a look at three sets of arguments set to headline the upcoming session.

▪ Fortune: OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma's settlement faces Supreme Court scrutiny.

▪ The New York Times: Courts struck down gun control measures in two states. The rulings in Maryland and Oregon come amid a shifting legal landscape in the wake of a Supreme Court decision that has imposed new limits on gun regulation.

Trump's four criminal cases have dominated headlines since April, when he became the first president — current or former — to be indicted. But The Hill's Ella Lee reports that behind the scenes, a handful of state attorneys general are still investigating whether additional charges could be brought over efforts to keep him in power after losing the 2020 election. The prosecutorial arms of at least four 2020 swing states are still probing the slates of so-called fake electors who attempted to falsely certify that Trump had won the presidential election that year — and could prove consequential to the former president and his allies.

▪ The Hill: The judge in Trump civil fraud trial received hundreds of threats, a new court filing said.

▪ MSNBC: Trump's attacks on New York Judge Arthur Engoron lead to threats and harassment. He doesn't seem to care.

▪ Politico: Trump is fighting an uphill battle in his fraud trial. But it could be years before penalties kick in.

Opinion

My children are being held hostage by Hamas. Take me to Gaza to see them, by Maayan Zin, guest essayist, The Washington Post.
A powerful tool for fighting corruption is going extinct, by Serge Schmemann, editorial board member, The New York Times.

The Closer

And finally … 🦃 It wasn't hard to find turkey on Thanksgiving this year, but in the wild, the feathered friends aren't doing so well. Wild turkeys are on the decline in many parts of the country, baffling biologists who study the birds that Benjamin Franklin once lauded as a "Bird of Courage."

As The Washington Post reports, for people who live in areas where there are so many turkeys they cause traffic jams, the idea that turkey numbers are dropping may seem hard to believe. But biologists say the nation's turkey population may have gone down by about 1 million, or nearly 15 percent, between 2004 and 2014. Scientists are exploring a few possible causes — habitat loss, hunting, disease, climate change — but it's clear if the decline continues, it threatens to undo a conservation success story.

"A lot of the things that have changed across our society and across our landscape over the past, say, 30 years have benefited a lot of species," Michael Chamberlain, a University of Georgia wildlife professor who studies turkey populations, told The Post. "But turkeys are not one of them."