NATO COUNTRIES FEAR TRUMP'S POTENTIAL REELECTION. Here's one reason: The former president says he'd encourage Russia to do whatever it wants to a NATO ally. At a Saturday rally, he recounted a past conversation, ostensibly with a foreign leader of a "big country," in which he suggested that he would not defend a NATO ally if a country was in arrears with defense cost-sharing. "'You didn't pay? You're delinquent. No I would not protect you,'" Trump said. "In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills."
Biden on Sunday castigated Trump for his remarks, insisting that he "will abandon our NATO allies if Russia attacks."
▪ Politico: "Enough to make Reagan ill": Trump's NATO remarks come under fire.
▪ The New York Times: Trump's outburst on NATO may push Europe to go it alone.
Former U.N. ambassador and GOP challenger Nikki Haley, who trails front-runner Trump in the presidential race, called the former president a "thug" Sunday, based on his NATO remarks.
The Hill's Laura Kelly reports that with the U.S. and NATO members heavily invested in protecting Ukraine and maintaining alliances, Congress passed legislation in December barring a president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without a two-thirds approval from the Senate. But this has done little to calm those nervous about a second term for Trump.
"The fact that the Senate felt necessary to include such a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is disconcerting enough," said one European diplomat, who requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. "Our reading of the NATO withdrawal section is that if it gets tested, the president will prevail."
Stoking further concerns, Trump said Saturday he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" if it attacked a NATO country that didn't pay enough for defense. His comments drew fierce backlash from some Republicans, the White House and leading Western officials, with the head of the alliance suggesting they could put the lives of American and European soldiers at greater risk (NBC News).
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance "remains ready and able to defend all allies. Any attack on NATO will be met with a united and forceful response," and added that "I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the U.S. will remain a strong and committed NATO ally."
ISRAEL FREED TWO HOSTAGES in Rafah on Monday under the cover of airstrikes. which local health officials said killed 67 Palestinians and wounded dozens in the southern Gaza city that is the last refuge of about a million displaced civilians. Over half of Gaza's population of 2.3 million have fled to Rafah to escape fighting in other areas, where they are packed into sprawling tent camps and United Nations shelters near the border (Reuters).
The airstrikes came as Israel has threatened a ground offensive in Rafah. Biden warned Israel on Sunday that it should not proceed with a military operation in Rafah without a "credible" plan to protect civilians. He spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat said Egypt threatened to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if Israeli troops are sent into Rafah, where fears are growing that could force the closure of the besieged territory's main aid supply route. A ground operation could cut off one of the only avenues for delivering Gaza's badly needed food and medical supplies (ABC News).
Netanyahu said Sunday on ABC's "This Week" that those warning Israel against entering Rafah "are basically saying lose the war." Biden has been venting his frustrations in recent private conversations, some of them with campaign donors, over his inability to persuade Israel to change its military tactics in Gaza, and has named Netanyahu as the primary obstacle, NBC News reports. The president has said he is trying to get Israel to agree to a cease-fire, but Netanyahu is "giving him hell" and is impossible to deal with.
"He just feels like this is enough," one person said of the views expressed by Biden. "It has to stop."
BIDEN IS HOSTING Jordan's King Abdullah II in Washington today, and the two leaders are expected to discuss the ongoing effort to free hostages held in Gaza, as well as growing concern over a possible Israeli military operation in the port city of Rafah. The meeting comes as Biden and his aides are working to broker another pause in the war in order to send humanitarian aid and supplies into the region and get hostages out. A senior U.S. administration official said Sunday that after weeks, a framework was essentially in place for a deal that could see the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in exchange for a halt to fighting (The Hill).
BBC: Gaza residents are surviving off animal feed and rice as food dwindles.
SHAKEUP IN KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's firing last week of his top general marks the biggest military personnel change since Russia invaded, a sign that Kyiv is searching for a new start as it's under pressure to overcome major setbacks in the war. Zelensky's removal last week of Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, who was commander in chief of Ukraine's armed forces since 2021, is unlikely to change the dynamics on the battlefield. But The Hill's Brad Dress writes that appointing a new commander in chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who was the head of Ukraine's ground forces, allows Zelensky to deliver a political message.
"Zelensky is looking for some way to affect the way the war is going, and the best thing you can do at this point is replace Zaluzhny," said David Silbey, a professor at Cornell University who studies defense policy. "I think it's more of a sign of desperation," he added, summing up the thinking as: "We don't actually have anything we can do that will make a substantial difference, but we're going to do something anyway."
Vox: Why Ukraine's new top general is known as the "butcher."
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