95 days to election: Jobs data 'flashing red' |
New jobs data sent a chill across Capitol Hill on Friday and could be a wild card with the election fewer than 100 days away: - The U.S. added 114,000 jobs in July. Economists expected 175,000.
- Unemployment rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since October 2021.
- The unemployment rate was at 3.5 percent this time last year, triggering the "Sahm Rule" recession indicator, which says a recession is likely underway if the three-month average unemployment rate grows by a half percentage point or more from its low point in the past 12 months.
- The unemployment rate has gone up for four consecutive months.
- The Dow tumbled more than 600 points and the Nasdaq shed 2.4 percent over recession fears.
The jobs numbers are particularly stark for blue collar workers, which could impact an election that figures to hinge on a handful of Midwest and Rust Belt states. - Per The Washington Post's Heather Long, Americans without college degrees saw the biggest jump in unemployment.
- Those with no high school education saw the unemployment rate rise to 6.7 percent from 5.3 percent last year.
- Those with only a high school degree saw unemployment jump from 3.3 percent to 4.6 percent in the past 12 months.
- Unemployment is at 2.3 percent for those with a college degree, up from 2 percent last July.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell signaled that an interest rate cut is likely in September.
Former President Trump warned Powell against cutting rates so close to an election, saying it's "something that [they] know they shouldn't be doing." Some lawmakers are worried that Powell is behind the curve and should have cut rates already. "Fed Chair Powell made a serious mistake not cutting interest rates. He's been warned over and over again that waiting too long risks driving the economy into a ditch. The jobs data is flashing red. Powell needs to cancel his summer vacation and cut rates now — not wait 6 weeks." – Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote on X. The Trump campaign is looking to make Vice President Harris the face of the Biden economy, with campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt calling the presumptive Democratic nominee "Joe Biden's co-pilot on Bidenomics." "She cast tie-breaking votes in the Senate for spending that put inflation on steroids, and despite the evidence that America's working families are hurting she tells us these failed plans are working. The basic necessities of food, gas and housing are less affordable, unemployment is rising, and Kamala doesn't seem to care." The latest Wall Street Journal national poll that found Trump with a 2 point lead found him leading by 12 points on the question of who is better to handle the economy. Read more: |
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Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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Harris clinches nomination, closes in on running mate
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Vice President Harris passed the threshold to become the official Democratic presidential nominee on Friday, less than two weeks after President Biden dropped out of the race. Harris was nominated in a virtual vote conducted by the Democratic National Committee. No other candidates were in the running. NEXT UP: A vice presidential pick. Harris's search for a running mate is coming to an end and Democrats will soon have a full ticket to rally around. - The New York Times reports that former Attorney General Eric Holder, who led the vice presidential vetting process, has handed over his finished materials to the campaign.
- The Hill's Amie Parnes tells The Evening Report that Harris will meet with her top vice presidential picks this weekend.
- The vice presidential announcement is expected in the next few days. Harris and her running mate will hold a joint rally on Tuesday in Philadelphia, followed by a swing state blitz.
The big question Harris faces is which of the names under consideration will give her the biggest boost in the quest for 270 Electoral College votes. - Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro represents the biggest swing state prize on the map.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a former House member, brings progressive bona fides from a Midwest state that has turned purple in recent years.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has won statewide in a ruby red state.
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly represents a border state and a top battleground.
- Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is one of the party's best communicators and brings star wattage to the campaign trail.
Perspectives: The Liberal Patriot: Which VP candidate is the strongest electorally? The Hill: Keep it simple, Kamala, and ride the wave to victory. The Dish: The Never Trumper and Kamala Harris. Read more: |
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Democrats growing confident in electoral prospects
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Democrats are growing confident in their electoral prospects as Vice President Harris continues her swift ascent.
Emboldened Democrats are suddenly talking a big game. - Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who is leading the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this cycle, told NBC News that it's "very possible" Democrats will build on their 52 seat majority.
- Peters sees pick-up opportunities in deep red states, such as Texas and Florida.
Former President Trump has still not committed to debating Harris. He explained his thinking to Fox Business Network's Maria Bartiromo.
"I mean right now I say, why should I do a debate? I'm leading in the polls. And, everybody knows her, everybody knows me." The Harris campaign is trying to bait Trump into debating. Harris campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond said Trump "needs to man up." "He's got no problem spreading lies and hateful garbage at his rallies or in interviews with right-wing commentators. But he's apparently too scared to do it standing across the stage from the Vice President of the United States." Many Republicans want to see Harris put on the spot with the cameras rolling. They're accusing her of dodging the press. The vice president hasn't had any press conferences or sat for any interviews since becoming the likely nominee. Democrats told The Hill's Amie Parnes they're fine with Harris cutting a low profile as she launches her campaign — at least for now. Read more: |
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© Andrew Harnik/Getty Images |
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| Freed Americans land on U.S. soil
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President Biden and Vice President Harris were on the ground late Thursday to greet the three American citizens freed in a multi-country prisoner swap with Russia. Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former Marine Paul Whelan and journalist Alsu Kurmasheva touched down at Joint Base Andrews at about 11:45 p.m. on Thursday night. Gerhskovich lifted his mother off the ground as they embraced for the first time since he'd been arrested and sentenced to prison in Russia on charges of espionage. "It was great to get on that bus today and see a lot of not just Americans and Germans but Russian political prisoners. Today was a really touching moment to see all of them." WNBA star Brittney Griner, who was released in an earlier prisoner swap, said she was "overwhelmed with joy and relief." - Here's a look at everyone who Russia and the U.S. released.
Germany released Russian hitman Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned on murder charges. "Look, nobody's delighted, or doing backflips over here because Mr. [Vadim] Krasikov is now a free man," White House national security adviser John Kirby told Fox News' "Special Report." "That's what negotiations are all about." There is bitterness from the families of those held captive in Russia who were not part of the deal, such as Pennsylvania teacher Marc Fogel. "The last 36 hours have been gut wrenching," Fogel's sister Anne Fogel told CNN's Erin Burnett. "It's been a roller coaster. No sleep. I feel like we've been kind of collectively stabbed in the back." Perspectives: Bari Weiss: Gershkovich's freedom and the forever war against tyrants. Read more: |
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"Term limits on the Supreme Court would end judicial independence," by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in The Washington Post. "Biden is forgotten but not gone," by Kimberley A. Strassel for The Wall Street Journal. "Fix America by reestablishing accountability," by Newt Gingrich for The Hill. "Trump's shock-jock politics are flopping with Black voters," by Donna Brazile for The Hill. |
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17 days until the Democratic National Convention. 95 days until the 2024 general election.
171 days until Inauguration Day 2025. |
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Saturday - Trump and Vance hold a rally in Atlanta.
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There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@thehill.com | |
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