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MORNING REPORT

Monday, August 19

by Alexis Simendinger

© The Associated Press / Alex Brandon | With 78 days before Election Day, Democratic delegates will meet beginning today at Chicago's United Center to crown Vice President Harris as their presidential nominee and to nominate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) to be vice president.

What to watch at Dem convention: Party unity and protesters

Democrats' four-day show in Chicago to nominate Vice President Harris, which begins today, could win over uncommitted voters to defeat former President Trump, or it could spell a new, tougher phase for a campaign that has 78 days to go.

Is Harris doing better with key blocs of voters than was President Biden a month ago? Yes. Has she raised a war chest that can go the distance and reach voters outside the Democratic Party? Yes. Are she and Trump neck and neck, according to polls in battleground states? Also yes.

This week's nominating convention will highlight all of that. And it will also expose Democrats' divisions over the war in Gaza, thanks to protests planned in Chicago. The party's urban vs. rural and progressive vs. moderate splits will be analyzed by the news media as Californian Harris takes her nominating bow in Illinois alongside Gov. Tim Walz (D), her running mate from Minnesota.

Speakers from Congress will include Democrats from New York, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

▪ The Hill's The Memo: Pro-Palestinian movement readies for pivotal moment at the Democratic convention.

▪ ABC7Chicago: Windy City security, street closures in place today.

The importance of the Southwest and Midwest, sometimes described by dwellers on the East and West coasts as "flyover country," will be heralded as Ground Zero at the convention. And issues, from reproductive "freedom" to arguments assailing Trump's "extremism" and celebrating Democrats' middle-class policies, will take center stage along with nonpoliticians as storytellers.

Former two-term Presidents Clinton and Obama have primetime speaking slots. It will not be lost on the 5,000 delegates and alternates that Biden (who delivers his address less than a month after withdrawing as the nominee) defeated Trump in 2020, but at age 81 became a one-term president. Former nominee Hillary Clinton, expected to speak Tuesday, lost to Trump in 2016 while failing to break America's highest gender glass ceiling.

BASIC TO BIGGER: It's unclear that political conventions translate into votes for presidential aspirants. But some candidates vault from run-of-the-mill politicians to movements (Obama and Trump are examples). Social media can help.

There's so much desire to organically talk about it because people got more excited for her," Elizabeth Booker Houston said of Harris.

Houston is a 34-year-old political content creator, who has more than 500,000 followers across her TikTok and Instagram accounts. She told The Wall Street Journal she turned down some paid offers from advocacy groups to post videos supporting Biden because she wasn't that excited about the president. But she has been more willing to make videos in support of Harris, she says.

The convention will livestream across more than a dozen platforms, including the Democratic National Committee website, YouTube and X. For the first time in convention history, organizers say, they will also host vertical streams across TikTok, Instagram and YouTube to make the proceedings more accessible on mobile devices.

There will be English and Spanish versions, as well as American Sign Language interpretation and an audio-description service, officials said.

▪ The Hill: Harris hopes for a postconvention surge.

▪ The Hill: Five things to watch during the convention this week.

▪ The New York Times: The Democratic Party platform, released Sunday, includes familiar themes. It refers to Trump by name 150 times.

▪ The Washington Post: Convention delegates plan a "roll call celebration" for Harris and Walz.

▪ The Washington Post: How to watch the convention, which airs live this evening from 6:15 p.m. to 11 p.m. EDT, and 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday through Thursday.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

Moonlight: Stargazers today can catch a supermoon, the first of four lunar spectacles between now and November, as the full moon inches a little closer than usual, making it appear slightly bigger and brighter in the night sky.
Climate: Maine's wild blueberries, an economic staple in the state, are struggling to adapt to changing weather patterns. … The future of Las Vegas's climate is predicted to be an inferno. … Stoking this season's hurricanes (think Beryl and Ernesto) are rising sea temperatures caused by a warming planet.
Work: In the nation's capital (the center of government and home to 700,000 residents) the 911 emergency call center can't get enough employees to show up for work. City response? Employees will receive monthly bonus incentives of $800 if they work all their scheduled shifts.

Leading the Day

© The Associated Press / Chuck Burton | Vice President Harris seeks to expand the competition in swing states to try to defeat former President Trump, including in North Carolina, where she campaigned July 11.

CAMPAIGN POLITICS

EXPANDING THE MAP: North Carolina is back in play in the presidential race. Harris returned the Tar Heel State to battleground territory after it appeared to be slipping out of Democrats' reach a few weeks ago. Harris appears to have erased Trump's once-sizable lead in the state. Both wooed voters there last week. Trump will return to North Carolina this week during another blitz through make-or-break states while Democrats hold their convention in Chicago.

CAPTURING NORTH CAROLINA would still be a challenge for Harris. Republicans have carried the state in every presidential election since 1980, with the exception of 2008 when Obama won it by about 14,000 votes.

Note: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat who was on Harris's shortlist for VP before removing himself, will speak this week to delegates in Chicago.

▪ The New York Times: Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, according to the latest poll results.

▪ The Silver Bulletin with Nate Silver (analysis with paywall): "Harris no longer has the momentum that she had a week or two ago, but there's a chance that she could regain after the convention … if she can learn how to navigate the higher expectations that the media now has for her campaign."

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio responded Saturday to recent favorable poll results for Harris in surveys by The New York Times/Siena College in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada by challenging the polling accuracy four years ago while saying the most recent Georgia snapshot showing Trump ahead of Harris by 7 points among registered voters is "right." "Trump is consistently overperforming among Black voters and voters aged 18-29 and has better fidelity among registered Republicans and 2020 supporters than Kamala Harris does among registered Democrats and 2020 Biden voters," Fabrizio wrote in his memo.

The Hill: Trump plans this week to counter the Democratic convention messaging with appearances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.

2024 ROUNDUP

Polling nationally continues to show a close presidential race with a slight Harris advantage among registered voters since July, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. Harris stands with 49 percent to Trump's 45 percent. On a list of 11 issues, Trump was more trusted by voters on the economy, inflation, immigration and the Israel-Gaza war. Harris's advantages, according to the poll, were race relations, abortion, health care, protecting democracy, appointments to the Supreme Court and gun violence. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percent.
Amid Democrats' efforts to flip the House majority from red to blue, a "nailbiter" contest in Washington state looms large. The overall outlook is murky for Democrats who hope to capture the House majority with Harris at the top of the ticket. Reasons include gerrymandered congressional districts and voters' penchant for ticket-splitting.
Trump and Harris bash one another while wielding selectively worded statements about policy. The New York Times fact-checked some examples HERE.
Democrats say they see independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s recent moves as signs of "desperation" during a faltering bid for the White House.
The Trump campaign's apparent failure this summer to report to law enforcement an alleged hacking of its email system renewed questions about its obligations to disclose.
Today, former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who won a House seat in 2022, is expected to plead guilty to multiple charges related to campaign finance fraud. The House voted to expel him last year.

Where and When

The House and Senate are out until after Labor Day.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will fly this afternoon to Chicago to address delegates at 8:50 p.m. EDT during the Democratic National Convention. The president will depart for Santa Ynez, Calif., with first lady Jill Biden late tonight.

The vice president and second gentleman Doug Emhoff will be in Chicago today and throughout the convention.

The first lady will be in Chicago tonight to deliver a convention speech about the administration's achievements. She and the president will depart Illinois at 10:30 p.m. for Santa Ynez, Calif., where they will remain for the week before departing Sunday for Rehoboth Beach, Del. (A longtime friend of the Biden family and Democratic donor owns an estate in Santa Ynez.)

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel and will meet today with the prime minister to discuss the status of a proposed ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

Zoom In

© The Associated Press / Kevin Mohatt, pool via AP | Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived Sunday in Tel Aviv to confer today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about achieving a negotiated ceasefire in Gaza.

ADMINISTRATION

Middle East: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Tel Aviv today as he met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, said, "This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the [Gaza] hostages home, to get a ceasefire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security."

The secretary arrived Sunday in Israel, his ninth trip to the region since the Hamas attack on Israel last year, as talks were expected to continue this week in Qatar. He plans to meet today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Biden said last week he was hopeful about an agreement by the end of this week. "I'm optimistic. It's far from over. Just a couple more issues. I think we've got a shot," he told reporters Friday.

Axios and BBC reported on sticking points between Israel and Hamas.

Ukraine: U.S. and Ukrainian officials, with months remaining for the Biden administration, have agreed on a plan to reorient how Ukraine is handling its recovery and to try and insulate it from political changes in both Washington and Kyiv as Ukraine battles Russia. The economic goal is to augment heavy reliance on international assistance from governments with commercial investments, recognizing that political support for Ukraine aid in Congress and in other capitals is unpredictable.

Russia: Moscow denied Sunday a report in The Washington Post that Ukraine's push into the Kursk region — which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday is to create a buffer zone — had derailed indirect talks planned this month with Kyiv about halting strikes on energy and power targets.

The Hill: The U.S.-backed mission in Haiti struggles to take on gang violence.

Elsewhere

TUESDAY'S PRIMARIES

Primaries kick off Tuesday in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming.

In Florida, a noteworthy Senate race is about to be solidified. Republican Sen. Rick Scott is expected to win easily over two candidates with little name identification or money. He has the power of incumbency along with the backing of his party and has already spent about $27 million on his reelection, including millions of his personal fortune (The Associated Press).

Meanwhile, Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, one of Trump's most vocal allies on Capitol Hill, is facing off against GOP challenger Aaron Dimmock, who is backed by Gaetz's political nemesis, former GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The Hill: The McCarthy-Gaetz feud reaches its apex during the Florida primary.

Sunshine State Democrats are competing in the 13th Congressional District to challenge Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R) in the fall.

Alaska holds a nonpartisan primary for its at-large congressional district, which is held by Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Tuesday's contest will narrow a list of candidates to four.

In Wyoming's primaries Tuesday, the state's two Republican senators, John Barrasso and Harriet Hageman, face challengers who are not eyed as serious political threats.

The Hill's Julia Manchester details the key primary contests to watch.

Opinion

■ A "dangerous time" for Jews, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.

■ Ukraine's Kursk offensive is a huge strategic error, by Andrew Latham, opinion contributor, The Hill.

The Closer

© The Associated Press / Michael Perez | Who will be among celebrity participants during the Democratic National Convention this week? John Legend will be there. He sang (pictured) during a Philadelphia get-out-the-vote rally featuring then-Sen. Harris in 2020.

And finally … ⭐ The Democratic National Convention will include plenty of star power and famous faces over four days this week. The breathless conjecture has focused on possible involvement by Beyoncé (might she sing her song "Freedom" live during the confab?) and Taylor Swift (one political analyst said a Swift endorsement would go off like "a nuclear bomb").

Trump Sunday shared some fake, AI-generated Swift photos (and some real ones) with an endorsement claim on Truth Social, "I accept!"

Beyoncé recently granted use of her music for Harris's campaign; Swift has not endorsed in the election, but previously backed Biden and Harris in 2020.

Despite the focus on name-brand wattage, Democratic organizers, sensitive to GOP swipes about California liberals, have tried to simultaneously tone down the celebrity quotient in Chicago while at the same time stirring excitement among delegates and a diverse coalition of voters about the vice president and her running mate.

The Harris and Walz ticket "has turned this place into, well, it, frankly, it'll be like a rock concert. I think people are going to be cheering and pretty excited," Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), host of this week's convention, predicted Sunday during a CNN interview. He said the vice president energizes the party in a way he hasn't seen since Obama's campaign in 2008.

There are more than 100 convention-focused events scheduled in Chicago this week, many with confirmed headliners such as John Legend, Jon Stewart, Billy Porter, Joan Jett, Octavia Spencer, DJ D-Nice, Lil Jon and stars of "RuPaul's Drag Race" (The Hollywood Reporter).