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MORNING REPORT

Tuesday, August 13

by Alexis Simendinger

Is Harris pulling ahead of Trump?

Getting the right kind of attention makes the difference in presidential contests. Vice President Harris's traction has been measured since last month by her performance compared with President Biden, before he left the race.

But inevitably, it's how Harris fares against former President Trump that's key.

The Republican nominee is fuming about the size of the vice president's crowds, her campaign's skill at getting free media while she dodges interviews, the coffers she's filling with campaign donations and her viral putdown that he's "weird."

The important question Trump is asking his campaign team is not what's in the press or which well-heeled donors and celebrities have joined forces to support her candidacy, but what likely voters in key states are thinking.

As of this morning, the upshot is that Harris is holding her own and perhaps pulling ahead of Trump in some swing states but still within margins of error. As The New York Times's Nate Cohn reported while studying the latest Times/Siena College survey of battleground states, "This period will not last forever, and the question is whether she will retain this kind of support when the going gets tough."

Harris has a tiny lead, 0.3 points, over Trump in the national polling average calculated by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)/The Hill. But his lead had been 2.3-points, as reported by the same polling average on the day Biden dropped out of the race. The national polls are far less useful than the state-based surveys, but they can signal shifts that foreshadow Electoral College results by November.

Polling in the past week gave Harris her first lead in the DDHQ/The Hill average of Pennsylvania, which is the most electorally valuable of the battleground states, with 19 electoral votes. Several surveys find the two candidates locked in a close Arizona race, including a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll that showed Harris leading Trump by 2 points.

An AARP poll published Thursday had Harris and Trump tied in Georgia.

HOPE STILL FLOATS? Veterans of former President Obama's 2008 campaign are experiencing happy flashbacks amid Harris's surge of support among grassroots Democrats and independents. The vice president's fans swarm, give money, volunteer and create their own social media megaphones.

"Haven't seen anything like this in 16 years," Stephanie Cutter, former deputy campaign manager for Obama's reelection and a Harris campaign adviser, wrote on social platform X.

The Hill: Harris's "joy" campaign targets voters' sour mood.

Meanwhile, Trump is working to expand his own fan base. He returned Monday to social platform X with his first posts since last year. Why now? He was interviewed Monday night for about two hours after some technical delays by supporter and billionaire Elon Musk, owner of X, formerly Twitter.

The Hill: Five takeaways from Trump's interview with Musk.

The election is coming up and people want to hear about the economy. Food prices are up…and this stupid administration allowed this to happen," Trump said, warming to a theme he plans to raise Saturday at a Pennsylvania rally. "And it's a shame. And that's the thing people most care about in my opinion."

Musk has federal concerns of his own, which he raised, including the prospect of creating a government commission to study the national debt and how Congress could reassess spending.

"I think it would be great to just have a government efficiency commission that looks at these things to make sure taxpayer money is spent in a good way," Musk told Trump. "I'd be happy to help out on such a commission."

Meanwhile, Musk's months of efforts to support Trump's campaign are chronicled by The Wall Street Journal.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

💡Older Americans are trying to adapt to a world shaped by artificial intelligence.
💉Should you get another COVID booster now or wait until the fall?
🍎As the new school year begins, nationwide teacher shortages triggered by the pandemic are ebbing, but many unfilled positions remain, especially in low-income schools. Hiring continues.

Leading the Day

CAMPAIGN POLITICS

It's primary day in Minnesota and three other states.

Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, one of the most divisive liberals in the House, faces a rematch against a Democrat who nearly ousted her in a primary in the last election cycle. Omar says she's prepared and wants to avoid the fate of "squad" colleagues Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), each defeated in recent primaries.

The Hill: Five races to watch today in Connecticut, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Vermont primaries.

In Connecticut's 5th Congressional District, Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) will face the winner of today's GOP primary in a competitive race this fall. The Cook Political Report ranks the contest as "lean Democrat."

In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), seeking her third term, is unopposed in her primary. In November, she'll face off against the GOP nominee, likely Republican businessman Eric Hovde.

In Wisconsin's Democratic primary for the 3rd Congressional District, political activist Rebecca Cooke is competing against state Rep. Katrina Shankland. Cooke finished second in the 2022 Democratic primary. Despite outraising Shankland $2 million to $868,000, Shankland has received more endorsements from the state's congressional delegation, local leaders and labor organizations. The Democratic winner will take on Republican incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a staunch Trump ally who was elected in 2022.

Wisconsin's Republican primary for the 8th Congressional District takes place alongside a special primary election to fill the remainder of the term of Rep. Mike Gallagher (R), who resigned from Congress in April. Under Wisconsin state law, the vacancy in that congressional district will not be filled until after the general election in November.

2024 ROUNDUP

The Green Party will appear on the Nevada presidential ballot, a state judge ruled Monday, presenting a spoiler opportunity in November. The last time the party appeared on the state's ballot was 2008.
Here are five hurdles Harris faces, from her economic plans (still under construction) to debating Trump (scheduled Sept. 10).
By law, the General Services Administration began presidential transition planning with Trump's designated team three days after the Republican nominating convention ended in Milwaukee and will begin to do the same with Harris's team this month following Democrats' Chicago convention, according to a Congressional Research Service bulletin released Monday.
The vice president's proposals to nix taxes on tips and raise the federal minimum wage could add $100 billion to $200 billion to deficits over a decade, according to estimates by the watchdog Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Harris and Trump each back an end to taxes on tipped wages, and the White House said Monday that President Biden would sign such a measure if it reached his desk.
The FBI says it is investigating suspected hacking attempts by Iran targeting both a Trump associate and advisers to the Biden-Harris campaign. Three staffers on the Biden-Harris campaign received spear phishing emails that were designed to appear legitimate but could give an intruder access to the recipients' communications. So far, investigators have not found evidence that those hacking attempts were successful, The Washington Post reported.
An office in Ashburn, Va., used as headquarters of the Virginia 10th District Republican Committee and also as Trump's campaign office was burglarized by an unidentified man photographed in the act Sunday, police said.
Harris is on the cover of Essence magazine, with a Q&A drawn from her recent appearance at an Essence event.
A New York state judge ruled Monday that independent presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. doesn't have a valid residence in the state, a blow that could spur additional ballot challenges around the country. Kennedy says he'll appeal. A judge ruled he can stay on the North Carolina ballot.
In the federal election interference and Jan. 6 criminal case against Trump, special counsel Jack Smith is at a crossroads. There are political considerations and implications.
Consumer prices remain a potent political theme: Trump says he'll highlight that topic during a rally Saturday in Wilkes-Barre, Pa.

Where and When

Morning Report's Kristina Karisch is off this week.

The House and Senate are out until after Labor Day.

The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will travel to New Orleans and Tulane University's A.B. Freeman School of Business with first lady Jill Biden to announce at 3:30 p.m. funding for research on cancer surgeries. He will talk about the federal Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) and efforts to fast-track progress in prevention, treatment and detection of cancer. The Bidens will return to Washington tonight.

The vice president is in Washington and has no public events.

Zoom In

CONGRESS

SHRINK THE DEFICIT: Republicans say they'll tackle the nation's red ink if they're in the majority in Congress next year. And here's a data point lawmakers say is unsustainable: Interest costs in the first 10 months of this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, totaled $956 billion, up 32 percent from 2023. At the moment, the Senate GOP is searching for consensus about how to proceed. The federal deficit is $35 trillion and projected to expand by $14 trillion over the next decade. Trump has called for $4 trillion in tax cuts, putting pressure on his party to come up with ways to reduce the deficit. Senate Budget Committee ranking member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) proposes to offset new tax breaks. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) wants to reduce mandatory spending on non-Medicare, non-Social Security programs to achieve savings. Other Republicans argue that Medicare and Social Security must be on the table for future reforms (The Hill).

TRUMP SHOOTING: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) and ranking member Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), leaders of a House bipartisan task force investigating the attempted assassination of Trump, sent letters Monday to the Justice and Homeland Security departments requesting all information and records turned over to any House or Senate committees in relation to the July 13 shooting. The seven Republicans and six Democrats on the task force requested a briefing from staff at both departments by Aug. 16 and face a Dec. 13 deadline to produce a report to Congress. Kelly represents a Pennsylvania district in which the shooting during a Trump rally took place. Trump and two men in the audience were injured. One rallygoer was shot and died and the gunman was killed by a Secret Service sniper (Punchbowl News).

The New York Times: Crow is a former Army Ranger who did three tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan and was awarded a Bronze Star. He holds a law degree and has a background in private-sector investigations. He's Democrats' go-to House colleague on national security who was a Democratic manager during Trump's first impeachment proceedings and recently posed tough questions to Biden about his candidacy before the president quit the race.

CHILDREN'S ONLINE SAFETY BILLS IN LIMBO: A bipartisan measure passed by the Senate last month and intended to bolster online privacy and safety for children faces stiff headwinds in the House and is unlikely to get a markup when Congress returns in September. "It could lead to censorship of conservative speech, such as pro-life views, is almost certainly unconstitutional, and grants sweeping new authority to unelected bureaucrats at the [Federal Trade Commission]," according to a House leadership aide.

PROBING THE PROBE: A senior investigator working with Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee in an examination of the administration's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 quit Monday (The Hill). He accused members and Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) of siding with politics while not fully examining decisions made by military commanders and others. Thirteen U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians died at Hamid Karzai International Airport's Abbey Gate during an ISIS-K suicide bombing. The military's report suggested the attack was "not preventable at the tactical level."

Elsewhere

STATE WATCH

📲Minnesota: And speaking about online safety for children, a Minnesota state lawmaker who has led a two-year fight to pass safety legislation to help youngsters is set to try again next year in the face of sustained industry opposition. State Rep. Kristin Bahner (D) said legislators in at least a half-dozen more states could also sponsor versions of the bill next year as pressure builds to reset the relationship between kids and social media. "The coalition is growing by leaps and bounds, which is very promising," Bahner told Pluribus News during a summit hosted by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

California: A shallow earthquake beneath Los Angeles Monday got everyone's attention, despite its relatively modest 4.4 magnitude, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. No major damage or road closures were reported (KTLA5).

Opinion

Want peace in Ukraine? Let it strike in Russia, by Marc Champion, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.
Harris is using Trump's tactics against him — but will it work? by Keith Naughton, opinion contributor, The Hill.

The Closer

© The Associated Press / AP file | In August and September 1961, East Germans under Soviet control used a crane to construct a wall separating Berlin's east from west, enforced by tanks, dogs and machine-gun wielding soldiers. The wall remained a symbol of the Cold War until 1989.

And finally … On this day in 1961, East Germans under Soviet control used barbed wire and bricks to build the first version of the Berlin Wall, which imprisoned East Berliners under threat of death if they attempted to flee to freedom. More than 5,000 people escaped over, through and under the wall during its history. Approximately 100 people died making the attempt — most shot by border guards. It was not until 1989 that the scarred, graffiti-covered symbol of the Cold War was dismantled as the collapse of communism and a weakened Soviet Union allowed East and West Germany to reunite under what became a formal treaty of unification signed on Oct. 3, 1990.