By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, December 5 |
By Chris Stirewalt Thursday, December 4 |
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© George Walker IV and Mariam Zuhaib, The Associated Press |
What Democrats can learn from Tennessee, Aftyn Behn and Rahm Emanuel |
It seems unlikely that former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel could capture the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The guy who as Barack Obama's first White House chief of staff had a gag nameplate on his desk that read "Undersecretary for Go [F] Yourself"; the guy who enthusiastically played the heavy for Obama and the Clintons in killing the dreams of the far left; the guy who did battle with the government worker unions and wooed big business in Chicago — that's not the guy who Democrats are probably hankering for. An aggressive moderate and two-time civilian volunteer for the Israel Defense Forces who will turn 69 just after Election Day 2028. Doesn't sound like the bio that will set hearts aflame in the party of Graham Platner and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But whether they like him or not, Democrats should note well his success of 2006. That's a long time ago, now. Ocasio-Cortez was still in high school when Emanuel, then an Illinois congressman, headed up the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the arm of the party devoted to winning the House. Republicans had been in control of the lower chamber since the 1994 elections, and not only had George W. Bush won a decisive reelection bid in 2004, but Republicans had even ducked the midterm curse in 2002. You could say that it was all because of 9/11, and that would be directionally true. But what it would miss is that while Republicans were certainly exploiting terrorism fears and patriotic fervor, Democrats hadn't found a good answer to the question. A party that in 2004 had been torn between Howard Dean, John Edwards and John Kerry was not a party ready to meet Americans on solid ground when it came to what was still the most important issue of the day. Watching Dick Cheney mop the floor with Edwards in the 2004 vice presidential debate is a good way to understand how unserious Democrats seemed to a lot of Americans in those days. By 2006, the Republicans were overdue for a political correction. Iraq was daily reminding voters of the unmet promises of an invasion that was supposed to be a liberation and the end of an existential threat from weapons of mass destruction, but had turned into a morass that was grinding up a lot of America's best and brightest. But it wasn't 2008, either. The economy was balky and energy prices remained stubbornly high, but the housing boom was still booming and Americans were getting richer. By the fall of 2008, it was unlikely that any Republican could have held the presidency. But 2006 did not have all the makings of a wave election. Republicans held an 11-seat majority in the House and it was not unimaginable that they could hold on by the skin of their teeth. But Emanuel had a plan. He started by being cutthroat about resources, withholding funds from weak or obstinate candidates. He adopted a message so simple and so vague that it could fit any district in another foreshadowing of 2008: Change. But most essentially, he got involved in primaries and backed moderate candidates for moderate districts. He recruited hawks — both fiscal and defense — in places where voters were hawkish. He was a booster for pro-life Democrats in places with big Roman Catholic and evangelical populations. He found nonideological workhorses in local governments and put the power and money of the party behind them. And, much to the consternation of the ascendant progressives who would go on to back Dean or Edwards in 2008, it worked like a charm. A reasonable preelection expectation would have said Democrats would probably get the 11 seats they needed, but not much more. They ended up getting 31. Every four years since then, people write pieces just like this one about how midterms are not the place for bold visions for governance but rather referendums on the party in power. If you want to make the most of that, you have to a) keep it simple, a la "change," and b) meet the voters where they are. Democrats don't need to be reminded of this right now since they just got a very expensive lesson in the perils of ignoring the Emanuel way. Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn is perfect for her district, which straddles the bow in the Cumberland River in Nashville. She's young, telegenic, idealistic and very progressive. That all made her the ideal choice to win the primary for a long-shot special election in the congressional district that covers that part of Nashville but stretches out into rural Tennessee. And it's also why she substantially underperformed other Democrats in similar situations this year. She outperformed the 2024 baseline in her district by 13 points, which is impressive. But not nearly as impressive as the almost 17-point overperformance of other Democrats this year. While it wouldn't have mattered if Democrats had spent millions on a race that they lost by 5 points instead of 9 points, that gap should stay with the members of the blue team as they think about what kind of year they want 2026 to be. There are probably a dozen seats that fall into that 5-point gap, and Democrats can't afford to leave any of them on the table. |
Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions & amplifications: WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com. If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be publicized, please specify. Programming alert: Watch "The Hill Sunday with Chris Stirewalt" — With President Trump making moves overseas and Congress deadlocked over health insurance and possible spending deals, it sure doesn't seem like Washington is in the Christmas spirit. We'll get into all of it with newsmakers from both parties. Chris Matthews, the inveterate Washington insider and analyst, joins us to talk about the state of politics and the press. And, as always, we'll have expert analysis from our best-in-the-business panel of journalists. Be sure to catch us on NewsNation or your local CW station at 10 a.m. ET / 9 a.m. CT. |
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Change from last week: ↓ 4 points |
[Average includes: Gallup 36% approve - 60% disapprove; American Research Group 35% approve - 62% disapprove; Fox News 41% approve - 58% disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos 38% approve - 60% disapprove; Echelon Insights 42% approve - 57% disapprove] |
Percent of U.S. adults who say they follow the news all or most of the time, by age 2017 / 2025 Ages 18-29 31% / 15% Ages 30-49 41% / 26% Ages 50-64 56% / 45% [Pew-Knight Initiative surveys] |
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Is it the dawn of the humanoid robots? Writer James Vincent offers a skeptical note. Harpers: "There is a basic challenge in robotic design that I've come across time and time again. I refer to it as the dishwasher problem. It's like this: Imagine you're designing a robot to clean and dry dishes the way a human does. Think of all the difficulties you need to overcome: Your robot needs hands and arms that can manipulate items of different shapes and sizes, and a vision system to identify muck and grime. It needs to be strong enough to grasp slippery things, sensitive enough to handle breakables, and dexterous enough to clean the insides of items like mugs and graters. Alternatively, you could build a waterproof box, fill it with jets and sprays, and stuff everything inside. That's a much simpler way to tackle the problem, and one that has gifted humanity the dishwasher. Criticism of humanoids within the robotics industry often follows a similar logic." |
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Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) set to upend Dems' Senate primary with Monday announcement — Texas Tribune |
Trump's softening numbers with GOP a warning sign for 2026 Republicans — National Journal |
Wisconsin Dems flinch at another statewide run by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes — The Downballot |
Democratic socialist unveils D.C. mayoral bid — The Hill |
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox greenlights GOP effort to reimpose gerrymander after court loss — Utah Public Radio |
DeSantis sets March target for Florida GOP's big risk-big reward gerrymander — Spectrum News |
Indiana Republican who got death threats for opposing gerrymander will quit — WXIN |
Ranked-choice voting study shows fewer spoilers, more moderation — The Conversation |
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"She wrote that in her book? That's complete and utter bulls---." — Gov. Josh Shapiro in a rare flare of temper from the Pennsylvania Democrat after being told by writer Tim Alberta how former Vice President Kamala Harris trashed him in her campaign memoir. |
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"It was awesome to find someone who sees [James Garfield] as I do. I have taught U.S. history for over 30 years and have always given Garfield due recognition for his potential and the grizzly details for his untimely death at the hands of a madman. Thanks for the encouragement!" — Ed Johnson, Bangor, Pa. |
Mr. Johnson,
I'll tell you what's encouraging: To know that for more than three decades somebody like you has been teaching our history to young Americans!
And you're not just teaching any Americans, you're in the swingiest part of the most important swing state in modern politics. I don't know for sure, but I can only find two times in the past 50 years — 2000 and 2004 — when Northampton County didn't back the winner of the national presidential election. Along with Erie County, you guys are the bellwethers among bellwethers.
So I can't tell you how pleased I am to think of the thousands of students you have no doubt influenced in your long career, and that you have put before them the likes of our 20th president and the hope, however faint it is at times, for a politics rooted in sincere love of country.
Keep it up!
Admiringly,
c |
"Your Sunday Morning Panel should be spun off. I see you sitting in John McLaughlin's chair, leading a weekly discussion on Friday evenings called The Stirewalt Group. Further, it would be put out as a podcast." — Bob Kellam, Chicago |
Mr. Kellam, This is very high praise, indeed! Not long after I turned up in Washington in 2007, I was invited to start appearing on "The McLaughlin Group." I don't know how many times in total, but I relished every chance I had until I left newspapering for the world of TV news in 2010 and had to be exclusive with my new employers at Fox. I was there in the twilight years, but the essential ingredient still remained: An attitude of respect and good humor between the journalists on the panel. In those days, I was starting to hustle up media appearances in order to publicize my work at the then-still-new Washington Examiner. What I found was a real mixed bag, and, most unhappily, a lot of interest in treating journalists as what we should not be: partisan combatants, talking point purveyors or punching bags. My favorite part of "The Hill Sunday" is — obviously — our almanac, when I get to spin a yarn from history, with the help of able producer, Alex Strimel. But certainly the finest part of the show is what we call our "best-in-the-business panel of journalists." That's more than TV hype to me, because I very much think that my industry is shortchanging viewers on that kind of analysis — the same kind I found on "The McLaughlin Group." We don't want any flacks, only hacks. When you bring partisans and political operators into a discussion, you should expect them to do their jobs: to make the case for their party, candidate or cause. That's fine and can sometimes be useful and illuminating, but typically ends up with people talking past one another, just trying to "win." If you limit admission to just journalists, whether straight news or opinion, you get a shot at a more wholesome discussion that admits the possibility that its participants — even when they have a strong point of view — bring with them enough humility and skepticism to acknowledge reality and not try to spin it into oblivion. I don't know that the world needs another hour of Stirewalt TV every week, but it is very gratifying that somebody out there sees and likes what we're trying to do — and even recognizes some of the inspiration. All best, c |
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Tore up from the floor up |
Associated Press: "The masked burglar broke into the closed Virginia liquor store early on Saturday and hit the bottom shelf, where the scotch and whisky were stored. The bandit was something of a nocturnal menace: bottles were smashed, a ceiling tile collapsed and alcohol pooled on the floor. The suspect acted like an animal because, in fact, he's a raccoon. On Saturday morning, an employee at the Ashland, Virginia-area liquor store found the trash panda passed out on the bathroom floor at the end of his drunken escapade. 'I personally like raccoons,' said Samantha Martin, an officer who works at the local animal control. 'They are funny little critters. He fell through one of the ceiling tiles and went on a full-blown rampage, drinking everything.' … 'After a few hours of sleep and zero signs of injury (other than maybe a hangover and poor life choices), he was safely released back to the wild, hopefully having learned that breaking and entering is not the answer,' the agency said." |
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, Meera Sehgal, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! |
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. |
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