MORNING REPORT

Monday, February 16 | By Jared Gans

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In today's issue:

▪ Trump tries to avoid midterm losses

▪ DOJ explains Epstein files redactions

▪ Obama responds to Trump's video post

▪ RFK Jr. reaches one-year mark leading HHS

Pressure mounts on Trump, GOP ahead of midterms

President Trump and congressional Republicans face rising pressure as they stare down a fast-approaching midterm election that could see the party lose its unified control of Washington.

Republicans have expressed worries that the party isn't doing enough to show voters they're trying to address concerns about affordability, which is expected to be a major issue in November with polling showing Trump underwater in how the public views his handling of the economy.

Some Republicans have discussed the possibility of pursuing another party-line reconciliation bill to follow up on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act from last year. But Trump brushed off the idea in an interview with Fox Business last week, saying "we've gotten everything passed that we need."

The Hill's Al Weaver reports today that some in the GOP believe that's a mistake and that the party doesn't have an ambitious enough legislative agenda to bring down costs.

"We're not going to win the midterm by going to the American people and saying, 'Look, we passed 11 out of 12 appropriations bills and we confirmed all of President Trump's nominees,'" Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said.

Trump has faced headwinds on his handling of the economy but his support on other key issues has also eroded, notably his handling of illegal immigration amid backlash over the administration's moves in U.S. cities.

An NBC News poll released last week showed 60 percent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat disapprove of how Trump has handled issues of border security and immigration, a striking shift from what polls were finding just a year ago.

Another factor for the White House — and Democrats — to contend with is the funding gap for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which began at midnight Saturday.

Most of the department will remain open as a wide majority of its employees are required to work without pay. But Americans may feel the impact the longer the shutdown goes on, most prominently with airport delays if Transportation Security Administration workers call out sick.

This marks the third funding gap of Trump's second term, and how long it will continue is unclear.

The election handicapper Cook Political Report considers Republicans to be a slight favorite for keeping their majority in the Senate come November, when Democrats would need to gain at least four seats to retake control. But it considers the House a toss-up, and Democrats have been leading in most polls of the generic congressional ballot recently.

As pressure has increased on the GOP to try to defy history and avoid losses in Congress in the midterms, the president has ramped up his focus on the elections themselves.

Trump and Republican lawmakers have recently shifted their focus back to issues of election integrity and voter ID advocacy with the first primaries of the midterms a little more than two weeks away.

While the House passed the SAVE America Act last week to require people to present proof of citizenship when registering to vote and present identification when casting a ballot, the legislation faces long odds in the Senate, with Democrats and at least one Republican opposed.

But Trump signaled he is willing to take action on his own through an executive order if the bill stalls in Congress.

"There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!" Trump said Friday in a post on Truth Social.

"Republicans must put this at the top of every speech — It is a CAN'T MISS FOR RE-ELECTION IN THE MIDTERMS, AND BEYOND!" he said in another post.

Any executive order attempting to mandate nationwide voter ID requirements would face major legal scrutiny, as the Constitution grants states significant power to regulate their own elections.

But the threat underscores the attention and concerns the president is expressing about the coming elections, when Democrats will try to regain control of Congress.

It also comes in the aftermath of a search by the FBI of an elections office in Fulton County, Ga., a central piece of Trump's false claims of voter fraud costing him the state in the 2020 presidential election.

An affidavit showed the basis of the search relies on widely debunked claims about the 2020 election, adding to the questions Democrats have about Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the office during the search, The Hill's Rebecca Beitsch reports.

▪ The Hill: Kristi Noem says DHS wants to ensure the 'right people' are voting.

▪ The Hill: Trump ups pressure on Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

3 Things to Know Today

Trump said members of his Board of Peace have pledged $5 billion toward the reconstruction of Gaza. His comment comes ahead of the board's first meeting later this week, when the pledge will be formally announced.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she believes Trump is still "very serious" about trying to acquire Greenland despite the framework deal he reached last month with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Negotiations have continued since then but haven't reached a final resolution.
Warner Bros. Discovery is reportedly considering reopening negotiations with Paramount after the company submitted an improved offer to acquire the media and entertainment conglomerate. Its board members are discussing whether Paramount's bid could lead to a better offer than the one from Netflix.

LEADING THE DAY

EPSTEIN LETTER: The Department of Justice (DOJ) has sent a letter to lawmakers explaining its many redactions in the Jeffrey Epstein files, but advocates in Congress are renewing their allegations of a lack of transparency.

Multiple media outlets reported the DOJ sent the leaders of the House and Senate Judiciary committees on Saturday a letter purporting to comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which requires the full disclosure of the federal government's files on Epstein with limited redactions.

Part of the law includes a requirement to provide Congress with an explanation for certain parts of the files remaining private. The law includes some exceptions to protect victims' identities, but lawmakers and survivors have accused the DOJ of keeping many more parts of the files private than the law permits.

The six-page letter to lawmakers also includes a list of "all government officials and politically exposed persons" named in the files for any reason, with many high-profile figures including Trump.

But the DOJ notes the names appear in a "wide variety of contexts" in the files, and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) accused the DOJ of "purposefully muddying the waters on who was a predator and who was mentioned in an email."

"To have Janis Joplin, who died when Epstein was 17, in the same list as Larry Nassar, who went to prison for the sexual abuse of hundreds of young women and child pornography, with no clarification of how either was mentioned in the files is absurd," Khanna, who has been one of the law's top advocates, said in a post on the social platform X.

"I'm not an attorney and even I know this won't hold up in a court of law," Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said in a post on X.

The DOJ released what it said would be the last batch of Epstein files late last month, with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche saying it was one of the final steps required under the law. The explanation for the redactions was another one of the outstanding requirements, but advocates are making clear the issue is far from finished.

▪ The Hill: The Memo: Epstein files add to suspicion of elites.

▪ The Hill: Republicans view Howard Lutnick's Epstein ties as political liability.

GUTHRIE SEARCH: Officials may have a lead in the search for Nancy Guthrie two weeks after her disappearance at the start of the month.

Multiple outlets reported Sunday that investigators lifted DNA belonging to an unknown person from a glove found about 2 miles from Guthrie's home. The glove seems to match the type of gloves worn by the suspect seen in Guthrie's doorbell camera, authorities said.

The DNA profile is being added to the FBI's national database.

ABC News reported that sources who were briefed on the investigation said the FBI is turning away from the possibility that any of Guthrie's relatives or the two individuals briefly detained for questioning might be suspects.

NBC "Today" show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie released a new video Sunday pleading for her mother's return, saying, "It's never too late to do the right thing."

▪ NewsNation: How officials got the Guthrie camera footage.

OBAMA RESPONDS: Former President Obama commented for the first time publicly on the racist video posted by Trump earlier this month, which depicted him and former first lady Michelle Obama as apes.

Obama called the current political environment a "clown show" under the second Trump administration in an interview with political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen on his "No Lie" podcast posted Saturday.

"I think it's important to recognize that the majority of the American people find this behavior deeply troubling," the former president said.

He characterized Trump's rhetoric and behavior as a "distraction" while saying most people still believe in "decency, courtesy, [and] kindness."

Trump deleted the post on his Truth Social account following bipartisan backlash but has said he wouldn't apologize for it. The White House has claimed a staffer posted it, but Trump said the staffer wasn't disciplined.

In a lighter moment during the podcast interview, Obama told Cohen that aliens are "real, but I haven't seen them, and they're not being kept in, what is it — Area 51."

"There's no underground facility, unless there's this enormous conspiracy, and they hid it from the president of the United States," he said.

▪ The Hill: Obama praises Minnesota protesters.

WHEN & WHERE

The president and first lady will depart Palm Beach, Fla., to return to Washington, D.C.
The House and Senate are out today.

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ZOOM IN

ONE YEAR AT THE HELM: Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has greatly overhauled the nation's health agencies in the year since he took over the role, with more major developments to come.

Kennedy was narrowly confirmed by the Senate in a 52-48 vote one year ago. Since then, his tenure has been marked by intense opposition from major medical organizations, lawmakers and his own family members and praise from supporters skeptical of mainstream views on medical care, The Hill's Joseph Choi reports.

Kennedy established a reputation as one of the country's top vaccine skeptics when he threw his support behind Trump in the 2024 election, bringing into the fold his fellow anti-vaccine proponents and critics of corporate-controlled food systems. And he has been able to follow through on much of his vision to remold the Department of Health and Human Services.

Most prominently, some vaccines have become harder to get as the number of recommended childhood vaccines has shrunk, long-recommended immunizations have been delayed and the guidance on who can get certain vaccines has been limited. Kennedy also stoked backlash after claiming acetaminophen may be linked to autism, a claim he later walked back.

Personnel has also changed significantly, as Kennedy fired all 17 members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices in June. The administration in August fired CDC Director Susan Monarez, who alleged she was pushed out for refusing to give in to pressure to "compromise science itself."

Another reshuffling is apparently taking place, with HHS Deputy Secretary and acting CDC Director Jim O'Neill and general counsel Mike Stuart reportedly expected to leave their posts in the department.

▪ NPR: RFK Jr.'s promises from his Senate confirmation.

▪ The New York Times: Kennedy allies push to overturn school vaccine mandates.

ELSEWHERE

DEMS' DILEMMA: The crowded field running for governor of California may give Republicans a rare, if difficult, opening in the strongly left-leaning bastion.

More than a half-dozen major Democratic candidates are running to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this year, while only two prominent Republicans are running. All candidates are competing on the same ballot as part of California's top-two primary system, and the two best performing candidates will advance to face each other in the general election.

But polling has shown the many Democrats splitting much of the vote, sometimes leading to Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton coming out ahead in surveys. That could create a situation where Democrats are boxed out of the general election and forced to choose between two Republicans, The Hill's Julia Mueller reports.

No clear front-runner has emerged in the race, which features contenders such as Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire Tom Steyer as the Democrats' best-polling candidates. Many respondents say they're undecided.

Experts said the chances of both Republicans finishing at the top seem slim, as some Democrats are likely to drop out or fade in the polls as the primary gets closer, but the risk is still there.

▪ The Hill: Crypto industry wades into midterms.

▪ The San Francisco Standard: Big Tech's choice for governor.

RUBIO IN BUDAPEST: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on Monday as the U.S. and Hungary are expected to sign a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement.

The visit comes after Trump declared his support for Orbán, who has long been his political ally, in the country's upcoming parliamentary elections in April. Orbán had agreed to cooperation with the U.S. on the civil nuclear industry during a visit to the White House in November.

OPINION

ICE raids can revive Democrats' multiracial coalition, Efrén Pérez writes in The Hill.
The Olympics are not weird enough, Bruce Handy writes in The New York Times.

THE CLOSER

And finally … Abraham Lincoln is viewed most widely as an "outstanding" leader of all U.S. presidents, according to a new poll released over Presidents Day weekend.

A YouGov survey polling citizens on 20 of the most well-known presidents found 45 percent of respondents said Lincoln was an outstanding president, setting him ahead of the survey's presidential pack. George Washington was the only one who came close to Lincoln's high marks, with 39 percent rating his presidency as outstanding.

On the other side of the spectrum, almost half of all respondents rated Trump's presidency as "poor," more than for any other president. Former President Biden had the second-highest percentage or respondents rate his administration as poor at 38 percent.

The poll also asked for respondents' views on 11 of the most well-known first ladies. Former first ladies Jackie Kennedy and Michelle Obama had the highest percentage of respondents rating them as outstanding or above average, while Melania Trump and Hillary Clinton had the highest percentage rating them as poor or below average.