MORNING REPORT

Tuesday, May 19 | By Jared Gans

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In today's issue:

▪ Key primary races in Georgia, Kentucky

▪ Trump’s poll numbers hit new low

▪ Trump says Iran strikes planned, delayed

▪ Evidence in Mangione case permitted

Georgia's Supreme Court races become midterm bellwether

A pair of contests for state Supreme Court in Georgia on Tuesday will serve as key bellwethers as both parties are preparing for major battles in the swing state this fall.

Justices Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren are both running for reelection for another six-year term in ostensibly nonpartisan races. But the contests have turned into fierce proxy fights between Republicans and Democrats as both parties seek to show their strength ahead of critical Senate and gubernatorial races in November.

Bethel and Warren, both originally appointed to the court by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R), are running against personal injury attorney Miracle Rankin and former Georgia state Sen. Jen Jordan (D), respectively.

State supreme court races in the Peach State have historically been low on drama — no incumbent justice has lost a reelection bid in more than a century. But Rankin and Jordan are trying to change that, as are Democrats who have reportedly spent more than $1 million on campaign ads, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The race has attracted big-name endorsements, with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp endorsing Bethel and Warren. Former President Obama, former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Attorney General Eric Holder, meanwhile, have thrown their support behind Rankin and Jordan.

There’s no public polling in the race, but Democratic optimism had been stoked by the party outperforming its margins from 2024 in almost every election nationwide over the past year and a half.

Some of those successes include back-to-back wins in hotly contested Wisconsin state Supreme Court races last year and this year. The party has also been able to flip multiple conservative-leaning state legislature seats in areas generally less friendly to the party.

If Rankin and Jordan manage to flip the seats, it could provide more enthusiasm to Democrats as they try to take the governor’s mansion and defend a key U.S. Senate seat in this year’s midterms.

With the popular Kemp term-limited, Democrats see a prime opportunity to win Georgia governor for the first time in nearly 30 years. Several major Democratic and Republican candidates are seeking their parties’ nominations Tuesday.

And Republicans are seeking to go on offense to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in his bid for a second term. As Ossoff is the only incumbent Democrat running for reelection in a state that voted for President Trump in 2024, he’s a key target for the GOP, though early hypothetical polling has shown him leading his potential Republican opponents.

The court races have leaned into a familiar rallying issue for Democrats — abortion — as reproductive rights groups have weighed in to back the challengers. Those in Bethel and Warren’s camps have pushed back, accusing Democrats of injecting partisanship into contests that should be nonpartisan.

The debate escalated just before the primary as a state judicial committee issued statements accusing Rankin and Jordan of violating judicial conduct rules for campaigning together and appearing at reproductive rights events. A federal judge blocked the panel from publicly commenting Monday.

While wins in the races would be a positive sign for Democrats, they would not automatically mean they are favored in the governor and Senate races. Democrats have had the advantage in these relatively lower-turnout elections over the past year, but the electorate could look significantly different in November.

Still, a win for the challengers would rattle Republicans in one of the key midterm battlegrounds.

▪ The Hill: Judge bars disclosure of misconduct allegations against court candidates.

▪ The Hill: What to watch in today’s primaries.

3 Things to Know Today

Three people were killed in a shooting at the largest mosque in San Diego. Two suspects were found dead, potentially of self-inflicted gunshot wounds. The motive is under investigation.
Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has endorsed San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan to succeed her in the House ahead of a competitive primary to replace the outgoing longtime member and former House speaker. Election day is June 2.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced a deal to resume service on the Long Island Rail after a multi-day strike that added to her feud with Trump. Phased service will start at noon.

LEADING THE DAY

SINKING FEELING: Trump’s polling hit new lows this week, dragged down by the Iran war and rising prices, neither of which have any end in sight.

A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday showed Trump’s approval rating to be 37 percent, the lowest mark it has recorded since he returned to office. That came just after a CBS News/YouGov poll that found the same approval percentage, along with 63 percent who disapprove of his job performance.

Both add to a downward trend for the president since the Iran war began in late February.

Trump’s approval rating in the Decision Desk HQ polling average currently stands just below 40 percent, while his disapproval percentage is above 58 percent, the highest point of the term.

The polls found clear majorities disapprove of his decision-making on Iran and his handling of the economy and inflation.

Pollsters also found numbers potentially concerning for Republicans as they look toward the midterms.

The Times poll showed Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 10 points. That margin is greater than what most other pollsters have found recently, but it adds more evidence to Democrats’ advantage less than six months before voters head to the polls.

The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports Republicans are growing increasingly concerned about the president’s negative polls, worrying it could lead to sweeping losses in the midterms.

▪ Axios: Trump economic polling in freefall.

▪ The Hill: Republicans seek to shift blame for unpopular redistricting war.

FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is trying to overcome fierce opposition from the president today in a hotly contested primary battle.

The race between Massie and Trump-backed Ed Gallrein has broken a record for most expensive House primary in U.S. history. More than $25 million in TV, radio and digital ads has been spent, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Trump has gone all-in on backing Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL who has sought to portray the incumbent congressman as insufficiently loyal to the president. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stumped for Gallrein on Monday, breaking with Pentagon norms.

Massie has been known as one of the most conservative members of the House GOP for more than a decade, but he has defected from the president on a few key pieces of legislation, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and releasing the Epstein files.

“Third Rate Congressman Thomas Massie, a Weak and Pathetic RINO from the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky... must be thrown out of office, ASAP,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Monday.

The race will be the latest test of the power of his influence in Republican primaries, after he successfully pushed to oust Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in his primary Saturday.

▪ The Hill: The Memo: Massie seeks to buck trend.

▪ The Hill: Pentagon chief campaigns for Gallrein in stark break from norms.

PRESSING PAUSE: The president said Monday that he again agreed to delay planned strikes on Iran at the request of Gulf states as negotiations continue between Washington and Tehran.

Trump said in a Truth Social post that he planned strikes for Tuesday, but leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates asked him to hold off because “serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.”

The president emphasized that the deal must include Iran not being able to obtain nuclear weapons.

He said he instructed top military leader to hold off on the attack “but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.”

The delay came as Axios reported that the White House feels Iran’s latest proposal to end the war is insufficient.

▪ Al Jazeera: Pakistan’s mediation faces limits as U.S.-Iran tensions deepen.

‘ANTI-WEAPONIZATION FUND’: Trump has agreed to drop a lawsuit he had been pursuing against the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) over a leaking of his tax returns in exchange for the creation of a fund for his allies who claim they were politically targeted by the government.

The “anti-weaponization fund” will be given $1.776 billion for payouts as part of the settlement and issue “formal apologies” for those who argue they were the subject of political prosecutions. Trump won’t receive money from the fund, but the Department of Justice didn’t elaborate on who may be eligible to receive payouts.

Several people convicted for their actions during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot have pending cases.

The case was highly unusual in that it pitted Trump against the government that he leads. He filed the case last year just days after returning to office, also seeking damages for the criminal prosecutions he faced over the Jan. 6 attack and the classified documents he held at Mar-a-Lago.

Meanwhile, House Democrats have filed a lawsuit to try to block the settlement.

▪ MS NOW: House Dems accuse Trump of ‘corruption unparalleled’ over IRS deal.

ADVANTAGE ALTMAN: A federal jury in California unanimously rejected Elon Musk’s claims against OpenAI and its founder, Sam Altman, following three weeks of testimony in a case that highlighted the long-running feud between the two moguls.

The jury handed down its advisory verdict after less than two hours of deliberation, finding that Musk took too long to file the lawsuit as the three-year statute of limitations had run out. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers agreed with the jury, throwing all of Musk’s claims out.

The ruling is a major blow to Musk, who had sued the tech company he co-founded a decade ago with Altman after alleging OpenAI had shifted away from its founding mission. Musk said he plans to appeal.

“The judge & jury never actually ruled on the merits of the case, just on a calendar technicality,” Musk said in a post on the social platform X. “There is no question to anyone following the case in detail that Altman & Brockman did in fact enrich themselves by stealing a charity. The only question is WHEN they did it!”

▪ The Associated Press: Pope, Anthropic co-founder launching AI encyclical.

EBOLA FEARS: World Health Organization leader Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he's "deeply concerned about the scale and speed" of the Ebola outbreak in the Congo and Uganda.

The director-general said in an address to the World Health Assembly that the deaths of healthcare workers, high population mobility and a lack of vaccines or therapeutics for the particular type of Ebola is raising fears of greater spread, The New York Times reported.

His comments come after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is imposing a ban on foreign passport holders entering the U.S. if they have been in Uganda, Congo or South Sudan in the past 21 days.

▪ The Hill: Fatal hantavirus case not linked to cruise ship.

WHEN & WHERE

The president will participate in policy meetings at 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. He will sign executive orders at 4:30 p.m. He and first lady Melania Trump will deliver remarks at the congressional picnic at 7:15 p.m.
The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.
The House will convene at noon.

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ZOOM IN

BLURRED LINES: Worries are rising that the Trump administration is increasingly injecting religion into federal government operations, muddling the traditional line between church and state.

Critics slammed the massive religious gathering that took place on the National Mall on Sunday featuring government officials and faith leaders, mostly evangelical Christians, along with a rabbi and two Catholic bishops. The daylong prayer rally was advertised as part of the country’s 250th birthday celebrations.

The event was called “Rededicate 250: A National Jubilee of Prayer, Praise & Thanksgiving,” described as “rooted in giving thanks for God’s presence in our national life throughout 250 years of American history and asking for his guidance for the next 250.”

The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports critics took issue with the event for its full-throated public backing by the federal government.

“This event used the power of the government to elevate one thin slice of American religion above others,” Rev. Paul Brandeis Raushenbush, president and CEO of Interfaith Alliance, said in a statement. “It was a political rally with a political agenda, rather than an event that truly celebrated the long, rich and diverse tradition of religious expression in America.”

And it comes as worries have already been rising over the administration’s approach to advocating religion to intersect with the government. The Religious Liberty Commission, which Trump created last year, has faced similar criticism for a lack of diversity, as most of its members are Christian.

Separation of church and state is enshrined in the Constitution, though it has been considered a norm of governance in the U.S. The Constitution does include a prohibition against the government making any law establishing a state religion.

▪ Reuters: Scenes from the Trump-backed prayer festival.

ELSEWHERE

KEY EVIDENCE: A judge ruled that prosecutors can include a firearm and notebook that they say link Luigi Mangione to the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson as evidence.

The ruling is a major win for the prosecution, allowing them to present a possible murder weapon and motive to jurors. Mangione’s defense team had argued they were seized illegally and should be considered inadmissible because officers didn’t have a warrant to look through Mangione’s backpack.

But prosecutors argued the search was legal because it was carried out as Mangione was arrested and officers followed protocols requiring them to check for dangerous items.

Judge Gregory Carro did suppress items that officers pulled from the backpack before Mangione was arrested at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pa. That includes a loaded gun magazine, cellphone, passport, wallet and computer chip.

Some statements Mangione made to police before he was arrested were also ruled inadmissible in his trial.

Thompson was killed in December 2024 outside a hotel in Manhattan, and Mangione was arrested five days later. His trial on state charges is set to begin in September, and his federal trial is scheduled for October.

He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

▪ MS NOW: Why a judge is keeping certain evidence out.

OPINION

A hidden barrier to starting a family, Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) writes in The Hill.
A silent Trump is overshadowing the Texas Senate runoff, Abby McCloskey writes in Bloomberg.

THE CLOSER

And finally … On Monday, an asteroid the size of one to two school buses flew closely by Earth, relatively speaking, just days after it was discovered.

CNN reported that the asteroid, named 2026JH2, was discovered last week by astronomers at the Mount Lemmon Survey in Tucson, Ariz. It is part of a class of asteroids called Apollo, which have orbits around the sun that intersect with Earth’s.

At its closest pass, the asteroid was about 24 percent of the average distance between the Earth and the moon, the outlet reported.

Richard P. Binzel, a professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told CNN that the asteroid posed no danger to the Earth, and these types of passes are a normal occurrence.