The president again threatened to resume bombing if the deal falls through, but Trump’s moves underline his desire for an off-ramp as economic pain and political pressure mount.
According to Axios, the latest version of a one-page memorandum of understanding between the two sides would create a 30-day window to negotiate a more detailed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, throttle Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions. Both sides would ease their blockades on shipping through the strait during that period.
“Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote in a social media post on Wednesday morning.
“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
Hein Goemans, a political science professor at the University of Rochester who specializes in war termination, was skeptical that either side was willing to make the necessary concessions to reach a long-term peace deal.
And whatever commitments Iran makes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, all sides now recognize its military can shut it down again, wreaking havoc on global energy markets.
“They can say whatever they want about the Strait of Hormuz, but that ship has sailed. It is, surprisingly, a diplomatic victory for Iran — a military victory for the United States, but a diplomatic victory for Iran,” he said.
On the nuclear negotiations, a one-page memo will leave crucial details to be decided.
“At minimum, the Iranians are thinking no deal with America is credible. America can change its mind overnight and then start bombing us even in the middle of talking. So any Iranian leader will know that. So they will, they will hedge on some form,” Goemans said.
The contours of the nuclear agreement, according to officials who spoke to Axios, closely resemble the deal initially hammered out by the Obama administration that Trump scrapped during his first term, with a 10-15 year moratorium on uranium enrichment.
Trump is already facing significant pushback from conservatives pundits including Hugh Hewitt and Mark Levin, who both said the deal described by Axios would be a disaster for the U.S.
A spokesperson for Iran's parliament called the proposal an American "wish list" in a post on X.
Trump has repeatedly said the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal, but talks have fallen apart on several occasions in the past few months.
Read the full story at thehill.com.
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