MORNING REPORT

Tuesday, May 26 | By Jared Gans

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In today's issue:

▪ Texas votes in key runoffs

▪ Trump defends Iran deal

▪ Clock ticking for GOP

▪ Pope Leo weighs in on AI

Cornyn seeks to pull off a Texas miracle

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) will attempt today to do what most Republicans this year have been unable to: win a primary in the face of President Trump’s opposition.

The four-term senator expressed confidence Sunday that he would prevail in his primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, warning that his opponent would lose the seat to Democrat James Talarico.

But pollsters and betting markets are giving Cornyn long odds after Trump endorsed Paxton for the Senate seat last week.

“Ken Paxton was a GREAT Attorney General, probably the best in the Country. He was also very loyal to your favorite President, ME, as the Dumocrats played their ultimate game of Weaponization, and failed, BADLY!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Cornyn put up impressive numbers in the March primary as he faced two right-wing opponents who argued he wasn’t sufficiently loyal to the president. The incumbent placed first with 42 percent of the vote, closely followed by Paxton.

But Cornyn was unable to win a majority, forcing Tuesday’s primary runoff against Paxton, a MAGA diehard. Trump reportedly weighed endorsing Cornyn, under intense pressure from Senate Republicans, who see the former GOP whip as a far better general election candidate.

Paxton’s edge widened over the past two weeks in the Decision Desk HQ polling average and shot up to 15 points as of Thursday, two days after Trump endorsed him. Betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Paxton greater than a 95 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

Barring an election day miracle, Cornyn will become the latest example of Republican incumbents losing their primaries at the hands of their party leader.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) failed to advance earlier this month to a runoff against two primary opponents who argued he wasn’t loyal enough to Trump. He only won about a quarter of the GOP primary electorate.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) became the latest victim of the president's yearslong campaign to force out his GOP detractors, as he lost his primary to Trump-backed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein.

Cornyn argued during an interview with Chris Stirewalt on “The Hill Sunday” that his situation is different, portraying himself as a more reliable Trump ally.

Cassidy was politically haunted by his vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. Massie has regularly been a contrarian within the House GOP conference, breaking with his party on key issues ranging from the Iran war to the Epstein files.

Cornyn's vote in favor of former President Biden’s bipartisan gun safety law was a relatively rare major instance of bucking the conservative base.

But Cornyn also said in 2023 that the GOP should move on from Trump as its standard-bearer. And the president has since argued that Cornyn hasn’t fought “hard enough” to get the SAVE America Act, a key voting bill, passed.

Cornyn has portrayed Paxton as an ethical disaster during their monthslong primary fight. Asked Sunday if he’d support his rival in a general election, Cornyn deflected.

“Of course, people are seeking divisions among Republicans,” he said. “We’re having quite a robust family fight here in the primary.”

▪ The Hill: Races to watch in Texas’s primary runoffs.

▪ The Texas Tribune: Inside the final days of the runoff.

3 Things to Know Today

Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said he was pepper-sprayed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers as protesters gathered outside a detention facility in Newark. The center, Delaney Hall, has received scrutiny for more than a year for its conditions.
Massie teased a possible political comeback attempt in 2028 less than a week after losing his primary. He said he hasn’t made a final decision on which office to seek, if he runs.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country will host Iran’s FIFA World Cup team amid rising tensions with the U.S. Mexico is co-hosting the World Cup with the U.S. and Canada, set to begin next month.

LEADING THE DAY

PLAYING DEFENSE: Trump is defending the agreement he's reportedly closing in on with Iran to end the nearly three-month war, arguing critics “know nothing about the potential deal” he’s negotiating.

“These people should go home and rest, they do nothing but create division and loss. In other words, they are losers! The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal,” he said in a post on Truth Social on Monday.

U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said late Monday that U.S. forces fired “defensive strikes” in southern Iran, targeting boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Centcom spokesperson, told The Hill that the strikes were intended to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”

The U.S. says the ceasefire that began in early April remains in place.

The exact details of the deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, but CBS News’s Jennifer Jacobs reported Iran would agree in principle to dispose of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium in exchange for the U.S. lifting a blockade on Iran’s ports.

A U.S. official told The New York Times that the deal would not address Iran’s supply of missiles or stipulate a moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment, as those issues would be addressed in future negotiations.

Trump outlined options for the disposal of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile in a later Monday post, saying it should either be turned over to the U.S. or destroyed in place or at another location.

Critics of the reported deal quickly argued it doesn’t do enough to constrain Iran’s nuclear program.

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said a rumored 60-day ceasefire would be a “disaster,” while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said it could shift the balance of power in the region toward Iran.

Tehran also pushed back on Trump’s characterization of the deal, with its state-run media agency reporting that the agreement would allow Iran to manage the strait, which Trump didn’t mention.

▪ The Associated Press: What we know and don’t know about the deal.

▪ The Hill: Trump pushes for Abraham Accords expansion amid Iran talks.

BALLROOM BLITZ: Trump administration officials are stepping up their calls for the construction of a White House ballroom following the latest shooting incident outside the president’s house over the weekend.

An armed man was killed after exchanging gunfire with Secret Service agents Saturday. One bystander was struck and wounded, but no officers sustained any injuries.

Trump noted that the shooting took place almost a month after the incident at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner. The alleged shooter has been charged with attempting to assassinate the president.

Trump thanked the Secret Service in a social media post and said the latest shooting “goes to show how important it is, for all future Presidents, to get, what will be, the most safe and secure space of its kind ever built in Washington, D.C.” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche argued in a federal court filing Sunday that the shooting underscores the need for the ballroom.

But the $1 billion in security funding for the project is facing a serious roadblock as it has been removed from the reconciliation bill that the GOP is trying to pass to fund immigration enforcement agencies. That means the initiative would have to receive support from 60 senators to advance in the upper chamber, a prospect with slim odds in the face of Democratic and some Republican opposition.

▪ NBC4: Bystander in serious but stable condition; wound not life-threatening.

▪ The Hill: Trump friction with senators may imperil his agenda.

'DANGEROUS BLUFF': Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is warning against a referendum that the province of Alberta plans to hold in October on whether to move forward with steps to leave the country, comparing it to the U.K. leaving the European Union.

Carney cited his own experience serving as the head of the Bank of England in 2016 when Brexit was approved.

“They’re still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having," he said.

Alberta will hold a vote on Oct. 19 on whether to stay in Canada or take steps under the constitution toward leaving. This vote will be nonbinding, but if it passes, it could lead to a binding referendum on seceding.

WHEN & WHERE

The president will travel to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for a physical before returning to the White House. He will have policy meetings at 1:30 p.m., 2:30 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. and will participate in a Rose Garden Club dinner at 7 p.m.
The Senate will meet at 8 a.m. for a pro forma session.
The House will convene at 11 a.m. for a pro forma session.

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ZOOM IN

SLIPPING AWAY: Some Republicans are getting worried that a delay in passing the reconciliation bill on federal immigration enforcement could cost the GOP its chance at other legislative wins before the midterms.

Republican lawmakers have discussed a third reconciliation package to provide funding for the Iran war, defense spending, healthcare reform and fraud prevention, among other initiatives.

But The Hill’s Sudiksha Kochi reports that the prolonged battle over the immigration bill is forcing House Republicans to acknowledge time is running short on their ability to pass another legislative package this session.

Congress is out of town for a weeklong recess following the Memorial Day holiday, returning next week. That gives Republicans two months to make progress before a monthlong recess in August.

But they’ll first need to focus on getting the current reconciliation package through. Trump set a deadline of June 1 for the legislation to reach his desk, but that is almost certain to be passed as Republican senators remain split on how to deal with the administration’s planned “anti-weaponization” fund for those who claim they were subject to political prosecutions during the Biden administration.

The conference will also need to pass farming and housing bills and settle its battle over the extension of the federal government’s warrantless surveillance powers, which is set to expire in mid-June.

▪ The Hill: House, Senate GOP at odds over ‘anti-weaponization’ fund.

ELSEWHERE

EVACUATION WARNING: The Russian Foreign Ministry is pushing for foreign nationals to leave the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv following a large-scale Russian attack on the city.

The ministry said in a statement Monday that Russian forces are carrying out “consistent and systemic strikes at enterprises of the Ukrainian defence industry,” targeting decision-making centers and command posts. It also warned Kyiv residents against approaching military and government buildings.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians on Monday that his administration is working to strengthen the country’s air defense capabilities. He said no progress has been made “for a long time” with the U.S. on expanding the production of anti-ballistic capabilities and Ukraine is working to accelerate producing its own capabilities in “sufficient quantities.”

Zelenskyy said he expects “new diplomatic engagements” with the U.S. on ending the war.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Tuesday that he spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, about Russia’s notice to embassies in Kyiv.

“The danger in all these wars as they continue and they go on is that they always have the threat of escalation spreading into something new,” Rubio said.

He added there are no active negotiations to end the war, “but the U.S. is always prepared to play a constructive and helpful role that opportunity presents.”

▪ New York Magazine: How Ukraine put Russia on the back foot.

▪ The Guardian: Mood in Russia turns against Vladimir Putin.

OPINION

From battlefield to benefits office: A better deal for our warfighters and veterans, Rep. Jeff Crank (R-Colo.) writes in The Hill.
Grow up, America. Not everything is rebels versus the Empire, Evan Gottesman writes in The Washington Post.

THE CLOSER

And finally … Pope Leo XIV warned against the risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) in his first encyclical of his papacy, calling on policymakers to address the technology with “adequate regulatory tools.”

The encyclical, a letter outlining the pope’s stance on a certain topic, is entitled “Magnifica Humanitas,” following up on his past warnings about the impact of AI on children and workers. In the letter, Leo referenced Pope Leo XIII, who wrote an encyclical in 1891 that called for protecting workers’ rights during the Second Industrial Revolution.

The current pope said an open discussion on ethical frameworks for AI needs to take place. He said the technology shouldn’t be considered a “force antagonistic to humanity” but must be oriented toward good.

“Calling for prudence, rigorous evaluation and even, at times, a slower pace in adopting AI does not mean opposing progress; instead, it is an exercise of responsible care for the human family,” Leo said.

Leo also made a historic statement in the encyclical, apologizing for the Holy See’s role in legitimizing slavery and for failing to condemn it for centuries.