By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, June 5
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By Chris Stirewalt
Friday, June 5
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Whole Hog Politics: Independent variable in Nebraska, Montana worries GOP
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[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 am ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audience.]
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) raised eyebrows this week when he tweeted an article about Libertarian Senate nominee Ted Brown with a Scooby Doo “Rut Roh.” The pretty clear message was that with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton besting Cornyn in their runoff, conservative voters would flee the populist Paxton and park their votes with the Libertarian rather than voting for the progressive Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
That’s a pretty typical scenario in close, ugly races. Brown got 2.4 percent of the vote in 2024’s contest between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Democratic nominee former Rep. Colin Allred (Texas). It didn’t matter in a race that Cruz won by almost 9 points, but given that Paxton is struggling mightily against Talarico — and that Paxton has very low favorable ratings for a longtime incumbent — the presence of a right-of-center alternative on the ballot could be very material. In 2010, Illinois Democrats blew what should have been an easy Senate win by nominating a candidate with lots of baggage in a bad year. Lots of lefties parked their votes with a Green Party spoiler and handed a surprise win to the GOP.
But what if one of the major parties intentionally becomes a minor party?
That’s what’s happening in Nebraska right now. Cornhusker State Democrats fought hard to get Cindy Burbank through a Senate primary against William Forbes so that Burbank could immediately drop out of the race. Burbank was clearing the way for independent Dan Osborn, who turned in a pretty impressive showing against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024, which was a good year for Republicans, especially in Nebraska. Now, Osborn is going after Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) in a much worse year for Republicans.
The GOP is crying foul and claiming that Osborn is no different from Sens. Angus King (I-Maine) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who run as independents but caucus with Democrats, rendering their nonpartisan status symbolic at most. But in a year when voters are definitely angry at incumbents and the Nebraska Democratic party outside of Omaha is a dead letter, it might make a difference.
That’s what Montana Democrats thought they were doing in this week’s Senate primary, too.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) pulled a fast one at the end of the filing period, announcing his retirement just minutes before the filing period ended, setting up his designated successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, for a glide into the nomination and, Montana being Montana, into the Senate.
But independent Seth Bodnar is trying to make it a race and already has the backing of former Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. Bodnar, a West Point grad and former president of the University of Montana, is running as a moderate political outsider, which might fit the bill against a little-known Republican nominee, especially one who slipped into the race by a loophole.
But that would depend on not having a viable Democratic candidate. That’s why right-wing and left-wing groups both dumped money into the Democratic primary, with the former trying to prop up Reilly Neill and the latter backing Alani Bankhead on the presumption that Neill would stay in the race and play spoiler to Bodnar, and Bankhead would shuffle out of the race.
Bankhead prevailed easily, and Senate Democrats were delighted at the thought of further expanding a map that already has Republicans on defense in races from Maine to Alaska.
But after winning, Bankhead declared in no uncertain terms that she was staying in the race. If she does manage to draw even double-digit support in the race it would doom the Bodnar independent effort in a state Republicans carried in 2024 by 20 points.
What Democrats now wonder is whether she will be in for the long haul. If the main source of her primary support was from strategic-voting Democrats who will now flip right over to Bodnar, Bankhead could be on a kind of Marianne Williamson journey in which she is basically repudiated by the members of her own party. If, however, she is able to convince Democrats that she’s viable, it means that Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief and focus their energies in places less wild, wooly and independent than Montana.
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Change from one week ago: ↑ .8 points. (-23.6 points)
Change from one month ago: ↑ 1.8 points. (-24.6 points)
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[Average includes: Marquette Law School 38 percent approve - 62 percent disapprove; Emerson College 39 percent approve - 55 percent disapprove; American Research Group 31 percent approve - 64 percent disapprove; WSJ 41 percent approve - 57 percent disapprove; AP/NORC 37 percent approve - 62 percent disapprove]
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Democratic: 49.6 percent
Republican: 42.2 percent
Advantage: D +7.4 points
Change from one week ago: ↓ .6 points (D + 8 points)
Change from one month ago: ↑ .6 points (D + 6.8 points)
[Average includes: Marquette Law School 49 percent Democratic - 48 percent Republican; Emerson College 50 percent Democratic - 41 percent Republican; WSJ 48 percent Democratic - 40 percent Republican; Quinnipiac University 50 percent Democratic - 39 percent Republican; Echelon Insights 51 percent Democratic - 43 percent Republican]
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The New York Times: “Twice this week, East Coast residents have been stunned by a sudden boom that rattled their windows and homes and left them questioning what had caused the commotion. The latest thundering sound came from a fireball piercing through the air over the Boston area on Saturday around 2 p.m., NASA said. The agency said the fireball reached speeds of up to 75,000 miles per hour as it was sucked into Earth’s atmosphere. Forty miles above the Massachusetts border with New Hampshire, the meteor fragmented. The energy released as the rock broke up was equivalent to about 300 tons of TNT, accounting for the loud booms, NASA said. … ‘It’s not like in the movies where it leaves a big, you know, steaming hole in the ground,’ [Carl W. Hergenrother, the executive director of the American Meteor Society] said. ‘It’s just, you walk outside and there’s a black rock on the ground where there shouldn’t be.’”
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AIPAC BLUES; HEARTLAND HEARTBURN FOR GOP
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Israel issues dominate Dems’ decision in Michigan Senate: The New York Times: “When Representative Haley Stevens of Michigan was asked on Thursday during a Democratic primary debate for Senate what it meant that she had accepted campaign contributions from donors to AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobbying group, she spoke 160 words without coming remotely close to answering the question … “You’re also just not answering the question,” said Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, who suggested that money from AIPAC donors helped elect lawmakers in Washington who would keep sending American military aid to Israel. AIPAC, which has become toxic in Democratic primary politics, has not sent campaign money directly to Ms. Stevens or to other Democratic primary candidates this year. Instead, its donors have funneled money to preferred candidates and funded shadowy super PACs that have spent millions on Democratic primary contests in other states.”
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Anti-AIPAC group helps pave controversial candidate’s path to Congress: Politico: “Dr. Adam Hamawy, a progressive plastic surgeon whose life-saving work in the Army has been contrasted with his long ago association with a terrorist Muslim cleric, prevailed in a crowded Democratic primary field Tuesday to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, The Associated Press projects. Hamawy was one of a dozen active candidates in the 12th Congressional District, where the liberal Watson Coleman is retiring after 12 years in office (a 13th candidate was on the ballot but dropped out of the race). Hamawy is now the prohibitive front-runner to win the seat in November. … Hamawy, 56, led the Democratic field in fundraising even before a new super PAC called American Priorities, founded as a pro-Palestinian counterweight to the pro-Israel AIPAC, spent $2 million on his behalf.”
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AIPAC at issue in Mamdani’s opposition of incumbent NYC congressman: Washington Examiner: “New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed a Democratic socialist [Darializa Avila Chevalier] running against Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chairman Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), who is backed by the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee [AIPAC]. Mamdani’s endorsement of 32-year-old Darializa Avila Chevalier could shake up the race, as the progressive hopes to unseat Espaillat, the first Dominican American elected to the House. Avila Chevalier, a political activist who touts her involvement in Columbia University’s pro-Palestinian encampment, is hoping to ride the progressive wave that installed Mamdani as New York City’s mayor. Given her involvement in the anti-Israel movement, Avila Chevalier has highlighted Espaillat’s endorsement by the AIPAC.”
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Dems get their man in Iowa, setting up tough test for Senate GOP: The Hill: “The Cook Political Report late Tuesday shifted its rating of the Iowa Senate race toward Democrats, moving the needle from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘lean Republican.’ The shift comes after Democrats’ preferred candidate, state Rep. Josh Turek (D), secured his party’s nomination in the primary with nearly 63 percent of the vote, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). Turek will now face off against Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) in November in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the upper chamber of Congress. The Republican hopeful garnered nearly 74 percent of the vote in the GOP primary, DDHQ results show.”
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Iowa Republicans throw a wildcard in gubernatorial race: The Hill: “Businessman Zach Lahn and State Auditor Rob Sand are projected to face off in November for Iowa governor, according to Decision Desk HQ. Lahn, who was endorsed by Turning Point Action, defeated four other challengers in his GOP primary, including Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa). Feenstra had enjoyed endorsements from President Trump and retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). Sand ran uncontested on the Democratic side. … While Iowa hasn’t elected a Democrat for governor in two decades, Democrats see an unusually strong candidate in Sand. He is currently the only member of the party to hold a statewide office in Iowa, and he has attracted Republican and independent voters as a bowhunter who’s suggested he’ll stand up to either party on issues. Sand also has a whopping $18 million cash on hand, according to a pre-primary report filed last week. Lahn had around $636,000 in the bank before the primary, according to his campaign’s pre-primary report.”
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Major warning sign for GOP in Ohio Senate race: Fox News: “The poll of Ohio voters, released Wednesday, finds Trump’s ratings are about on par with views of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (41% favorable, 50% unfavorable), while challenger and former Ohio Sen. [Sherrod Brown] is viewed significantly more positively (53% vs. 44%). That helps Brown outperform Husted by a 53% to 45% margin in the race to fill the state’s Senate seat. His 8-point lead is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.”
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Paxton’s estranged wife agrees to settle out of court, sparing him a messy divorce trial — The Hill
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Republican Hilton, Democrat Becerra on track to advance to November general, but billionaire Steyer not conceding — The New York Times
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L.A. Mayor Karen Bass looks likely to get her wish as Republican Spencer Pratt maintains slot on November ballot as votes trickle in — KTLA
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South Dakota’s GOP governor pushed into primary runoff as underdog — NewsNation
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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear makes his 2028 play for Clyburn’s backing in South Carolina —WLWT
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New Jersey Democrats get their preferred candidate to take on the still-absent Rep. Thomas Kean despite GOP mischief in her primary — The Associated Press
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“No, sir. I actually said I was going to kick his ass” – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent answering a question from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) about Bessent’s reported confrontation with Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency director tapped this week by the president to also serve as the nation’s chief spymaster.
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“I wanted to ask about something that seems obvious, but maybe I’m missing something. The second that [Ken Paxton] won, the Republicans seemed to gel around an uber-negative culture war campaign. That reminds me of [2025 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee] Winsome Earle-Sears. By trying to make this Senate race all about transgender bathrooms and turnip greens, are they not leaving Talarico sole ownership over the cost of living? I know the non-binary, six-gendered creatures of some of [state Rep. James Talarico’s] unfortunate clips make Republicans salivate. But leaving all of the top polling issues to the blue side feels like a mistake. In a battle between woke and broke, woke could have a good shot.” — Mark Klissen, Atlanta, Georgia
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Mr. Klissen,
I would be careful about giving the Republicans too much credit for strategic thinking here. A great deal of what happens in politics is actually about self-talk: Soothing the anxieties of one’s own voters and even oneself. After months of an extraordinarily ugly and expensive primary campaign, Texas Republicans were no doubt in a mood to lash out at someone else.
There is also some of the faulty logic to which you allude. One of the big reasons the race between Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn was such a blowout is that Republicans convinced themselves that Talarico wasn’t really a threat. Their experience with the likes of former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and former state Rep. Wendy Davis told Texas Republicans that the closeness of this year’s Senate race was another mirage. If one believed that this was a similar situation, it would then be reasonable to assume that once Texas voters got a good look at Talarico, they would laugh him out of the race. That’s not what’s happening for both the reasons relating to the current political climate you mentioned, but also that Paxton is the weakest Republican statewide nominee in decades. Paxton’s 2018 squeaker in his AG reelection run was the worst statewide showing by a Texas Republican since 1998. A bad climate with a bad nominee means bad trouble for the GOP, even if Talarico is weak in his own ways.
There is a benefit in all the name calling, though. While it does continue to allow Republicans to underestimate the depth of their predicament, it does trigger the tribal reflexes of some GOPers who might have been considering defecting to Talarico. But that is bound to be a pretty small number. The larger concern for Republicans is not defectors but rather those who sit this race out or park protest votes with Libertarian nominee Ted Brown or just write in Cornyn. That’s why you will see the messaging against Talarico shift from mockery to fear as the race progresses. Today’s “Tala-freak-o” will be tomorrow’s darkly powerful villain in GOP ads.
All best,
c
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USA Today “Texas softball found some middle-inning run success at the Women's College World Series on Monday against Tennessee to force the ‘if necessary’ semifinal game for a shot at making it back to the championship series. At the forefront of that success was Hannah Wells who, with the bases loaded in the fifth inning, cranked one off the right-center wall to plate two runs and help the Longhorns break the game open 4-1, continuing their rally in the inning. … It was a significant moment in the game with Texas holding just a one-run lead against one of the nation's top pitching staffs, and one that perhaps can be linked back to Wells’ superstition of eating a ladybug whenever she sees one for ‘good luck’ — Yes, you've read that sentence correctly — being paid off. ‘She has a superstition dating back to childhood that if she sees a ladybug, she eats it for good luck. Swallows it whole,’ [ESPN’s Holly Rowe reported]. ‘And so, I was told that at the SEC Tournament in Kentucky, she had a nice home run, and she ingested a ladybug before that. So, this is a superstition. I have this on two different sources in that Texas dugout.’”
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
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