By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, June 19
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By Chris Stirewalt
Friday, June 19
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Whole Hog Politics: Trump proves hard to follow for GOP
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[Watch "Whole Hog Politics" live: Join us today at 9 a.m. EDT at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audience.]
President Trump makes a habit of turning the unofficial Marine Corps motto — “No better friend. No worse enemy” — on its head.
As Senate Republicans try to swallow a peace deal with Iran that even some MAGA stalwarts acknowledge represents a massive failure compared with the initial aims of the war, the GOP is reminded yet again that Trump is a very difficult man with whom to agree.
Think of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), among the most MAGA members of the Senate, who came crashing out of the gates at the start of the war to congratulate the president for doing the “extremely necessary” work to “make certain that, once and for all, that after 47 years, Iran can never harm the rest of the world.”
Moreno even swallowed the bitter pill of telling his constituents that the high gas prices they were paying as part of the president’s “economic war” were a necessary part of a larger strategy to eliminate the threat. But now, with the war over and the work unfinished, Moreno is touting a “historic accomplishment” and scoffing at those who say “finish the job.” “Are they suggesting that we wipe out 95 million people in Iran?”
Which, of course, was exactly what the president was suggesting at one point when he was trying to bluff the Iranians into capitulation. From “once and for all” to saying that “finish the job” means genocide with a detour through a defense of high gas prices — it’s been hard for even the president’s most loyal followers to keep up.
What the president and his team had hoped would be a kind of “splendid little war” — a Persian reboot of the Caracas shuffle — is ending (for now) with his acknowledgement that Iran had leveraged the threat of causing another Great Depression into more favorable terms at the negotiating table, starting with a massive influx of hard currency to keep the wobbly Tehran government on its feet. If you went along for the ride on that one, you can’t say there was no warning. Think of all the Republicans a year ago who were out there selling the idea of intentionally causing a brutal recession in the name of rebalancing trade to “re-industrialize America.” The president warned of a “period of transition” as massive tariffs went into effect and backers spoke of “short-term pain.” Many Republicans went along with the idea and told constituents that high prices and slower economic growth were necessary steps to bringing about the “Golden Age of America.”
The president bailed on that one, too. Long before the Supreme Court nixed his "Liberation Day" tariffs, Trump had walked them back substantially. There has been an industrial boom, though. Only it’s been the tech sector building AI data centers, not onshoring the screwing of tiny screws into iPhones. Same for Greenland and the annexation of Canada and the ballroom and the many other off-the-wall endeavors of the second Trump term. If Republicans want the brownie points for boosting Trump at the beginning, they should know by now that they’ll be the ones left cleaning up.
Frustrated with his Iran misadventure, the president is now training his rhetorical fire back on his fellow Republicans in Washington. As Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) works constantly to try to finish the legislative work for the summer so his members can go home and run for reelection — or at least lay low for a while — the president is making life miserable.
Two dangerous trends are converging here for the president. One is that as we move past the halfway point of the primary calendar, the credibility of his threats against his own party are starting to dissipate. The increasing number of openly rebellious members will grow accordingly. The other trend is that with the 2028 election cycle only months away from its start, there will be increasingly strong incentives for Republicans to start finding new horses to back or put on the racing silks themselves.
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Change from one week ago: ↑ 2.8 points (-23.8 points)
Change from one month ago: ↑ 5.8 points (-26.8 points)
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[Average includes: Fox News 39% approve - 60% disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos 36% approve – 62% disapprove; Echelon Insights 40% approve – 59% disapprove; NPR/Marist University 36% approve – 59% disapprove; Emerson College 39% approve – 55% percent disapprove]
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Democratic: 47.8%
Republican: 42.6%
Advantage: D +5.2 points
Change from one week ago: ↓ 1.8 points (D + 7 points)
Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.6 points (D +6.8 points)
[Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos 41% Democratic - 38% Republican; Echelon Insights 50% Democratic - 44% Republican; Emerson College 50% Democratic - 39% Republican; NBC News 49% Democratic - 44% Republican; Marquette Law School 49% Democratic - 48% Republican]
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New York Times: “One of the most direct and intimate ways to encounter [George Washington] is through the objects he interacted with. In recent months, historical institutions across the nation have worked to restore or recreate items that not only reveal something about the man, but also bring modern-day Americans closer to the history of the Revolutionary War. At Colonial Williamsburg, a tailor has recreated a politically charged coat; for a seaport museum in Philadelphia, a shipwright is replicating a boat that changed the course of the war; for Mount Vernon, printers have rendered an exquisite wall covering; and for a library in South Carolina, a textile conservator is preserving a rare battle flag. In doing this work, each artisan remains devoted to the materials and hand-crafting processes of the colonial era, usually forgoing power tools for equipment that was used centuries ago.”
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Iran sales job complicates Vance’s 2028 soft launch: Associated Press: “JD Vance was supposed to be spending the week promoting his new book, the kind of event a potential presidential candidate like the vice president typically uses to speak to a wide audience about his life and values ahead of a campaign. Instead, the rollout of Vance’s second book, ‘Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith,’ has been largely crowded out by something else he’s put his name on: the tentative deal to end the Iran war. The Republican vice president has embraced the role of chief defender of the agreement he and President Donald Trump signed with Tehran, giving a series of interviews touting the memorandum of understanding as a success and releasing a video championing it. It’s a striking emergence for a politician who was known for his skepticism of foreign military interventions and who seemed reluctant to speak on the conflict when Trump launched it in late February.”
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Cruz tests the waters with anti-MAGA endorsements: The Hill: “Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is backing two gubernatorial candidates who don’t have President Trump’s endorsement in the Georgia and South Carolina GOP primary runoffs. Cruz endorsed Georgia billionaire Rick Jackson over Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) in the governor’s race for the Peach State while supporting South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R) for that state’s highest office. The Texas senator said his decision is less about bucking Trump and more about ensuring the Republican Party nominee is poised to win the general election.”
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RFK Jr. flexes presidential muscles on midterm trail: Politico: “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is turning up with regularity in the House districts that will decide the midterms. With his visit to Charlotte, Michigan, on Tuesday to discuss his Make America Healthy Again agenda with freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett, Kennedy will have been in four in the last six weeks. Last week, he toured an elder care program in Thornton, Colorado, outside Denver in the district of Republican Gabe Evans. The week before he spoke at a dairy farm in western Wisconsin about the benefits of drinking whole milk alongside Republican Derrick Van Orden. And last month he was at a Head Start provider in the Toledo, Ohio, district of Marcy Kaptur, perhaps the most embattled Democrat up for re-election. None of the visits were for official campaign events, but all four districts are considered among the couple dozen in which both parties have a good shot to win and are likely to decide which party has the majority next year.”
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With a special focus on making friends in Iowa…: Politico: “A Libertarian challenger in a top Iowa battleground says Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the district’s current representative, GOP Rep. Zach Nunn, privately pressured him to drop out. Marco Battaglia, who hopes to run for the state’s 3rd Congressional District, has faced multiple challenges from Republicans over his eligibility and was even struck from the ballot on Monday — though he plans to appeal the state election panel’s decision. Battaglia said Nunn visited his home on June 7 to convince him to exit the race. Then, a day later, came a call from Washington — and Kennedy, allegedly, was on the other line. Battaglia said Kennedy told him that it would be a direct blow to Kennedy, personally, if Republicans lost the seat.”
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Radical calculation: Ocasio-Cortez carefully racking up primary wins: Axios: “New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is on a hot streak. In the last month alone, four progressive House candidates she's endorsed in open primaries have cruised to victory, making her an early kingmaker as she weighs a 2028 presidential run. AOC has gotten on a roll by deploying a different strategy from that of her mentor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — one that, despite its success, is dividing the left. … So far, Ocasio-Cortez has shied from endorsing anti-establishment progressives in high-profile Senate primaries — notably in Maine, where Sanders got behind primary winner Graham Platner, and in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is on the Aug. 4 primary ballot. … AOC likewise has avoided backing left-wing insurgents trying to unseat Democratic House incumbents, even though she got her start in politics by ousting a sitting member of her party. Sanders and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani are rallying in Brooklyn on Thursday for Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist challenging Rep. Adriano Espaillat.”
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Van Hollen wants a ‘28 look too: NOTUS: “Senator Chris Van Hollen, a high-profile critic of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy, said he is ‘kicking the tires’ on a 2028 presidential bid and is pushing for ‘dramatic change’ in Washington. ‘If you are asking me whether I think Democrats need to shake things up, you bet I do,’ Van Hollen said on the On NOTUS podcast. ‘It’s pretty clear operating that from within the confines or the halls of Congress is not a successful recipe for actually getting change.’”
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Dems stoke Ossoff ‘28 fires: The Hill: “Ask Democrats what they think about Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) political future these days and they’ll likely give the same answer: He needs to win reelection in November first. But as the party searches for younger leaders and a wide-open race for the Democratic nomination begins to take shape, the chatter about Ossoff joining the 2028 field has grown louder. ‘I will tell you just looking at him on the stump he has a certain energy and freshness about him,’ Democratic strategist Anthony Coley said. ‘What’s so amazing about Jon Ossoff is that he’s standing firm on his values in a purple state and that’s what people appreciate. … He’s creating a buzz that the country — and certainly the party — is craving right now.’”
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But he’s got to win his race first: New York Times: “As the most vulnerable Democratic senator seeking re-election this year, Jon Ossoff of Georgia would rather do most other things than talk about whether he wants to run for president in 2028. A lot has gone right for Mr. Ossoff over the last 19 months. The first-term senator has proved to be a formidable fund-raiser. His fiery rhetoric accusing President Trump of corruption has drawn an online audience of millions. Gov. Brian Kemp, the state’s most popular Republican, passed on running against him. And on Tuesday, Georgia Republicans nominated Representative Mike Collins, a Trump loyalist, to face Mr. Ossoff in the fall. The Democrat has already dubbed Mr. Collins a presidential ‘puppet’ after working quietly for months to undermine Derek Dooley, the Republican who lost.”
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Deepfakes upend campaigns from coast to coast: Wall Street Journal: “Thanks to recent advances in generative AI, virtually anyone can create increasingly convincing but fake images, audio and videos, as well as fictional social-media users and bots that appear human. With a busy year for elections worldwide in 2024, voters are already running into AI-powered falsehoods that risk confusing them, according to researchers and U.S. officials. The proliferation of AI fakes also comes as social-media companies are trying to avoid having to adjudicate thorny content issues around U.S. politics. Platforms also say they want to respect free-speech considerations. Around 70 countries estimated to cover nearly half the world’s population—roughly four billion people—are set to hold national elections this year, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.”
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Anthropic, OpenAI fight costly proxy war in New York City House race: New York Times: “Super PACs tied to the nation’s leading artificial intelligence giants have transformed the closing weeks of a race for a coveted New York City House seat by unleashing staggering amounts of money to shape its outcome and a national debate over regulating the industry. Together, groups linked to the Silicon Valley rivals OpenAI and Anthropic have already spent more than $12 million stuffing mailboxes and blanketing TV screens with costly broadcast ads — including during the Knicks N.B.A. finals games. Other groups with ties to industry players have chipped in another $4 million, with more on the way. With less than two weeks before the June 23 Democratic primary, the A.I.-related expenditures — alongside an unrelated $10 million infusion by former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg — could end up making the contest in Manhattan one of the most expensive in congressional history.”
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Carville cautions Michigan Dems on El-Sayed — The Hill
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Read this: How Susan Collins has won a blue Maine before and may, with grace, win again — Slate
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Pastor who blitzed for Trump in 2024 drops House bid after texts with pageant winner revealed — The Hill
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Kemp and Trump both stymied in Georgia gubernatorial runoff — NBC News
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Georgia GOP ditches gerrymander — CBS News
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Ramaswamy challenges Ohio voters on identity, immigration — Politico
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‘That is how you become a one-term president’: Lozada uncorks on Biden books — New York Times
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“On July 4th, at The Lincoln Memorial and Washington Monument, in beautiful and safe Washington D.C., we are going to host the most spectacular TRUMP RALLY of them all, a 'TRIBUTE TO AMERICA.’” — President Trump announcing the theme for the national semiquincentennial celebration.
“Woke 1 was crazyyyy” — New York City Council member Chi Osse’s response when called out for posting on social media in 2021 that “A white man should not be the next speaker of the council.”
“How do you prove he’s not a chud?” — blogger Jim Stewartson, talking to the New York Times about his defense in a defamation suit brought by FBI Director Kash Patel.
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Connecticut Insider: “Second-term state Rep. Farley Santos, D-Danbury, admits he was in a hurry last Saturday, arriving a little late at a local elementary school that was the location of a Danbury Fire Department awards and promotion event. Santos, also the economic and community development adviser for the city, said he parked quickly, pulling into a fire lane and parking there. Someone took a photo of Santos' vehicle and his ‘109’ state representative license plate that denotes the district he represents. The photo was posted Monday morning in the Parking Shame Page Facebook group that posts images of vehicles that appear improperly parked. ... Santos' GOP opponent, Ed Vachovetz, a retired deputy fire chief for the city, said in a Tuesday afternoon phone interview that illegal parking in fire lanes has always bothered him. ‘People need to be aware that fire lanes are there for a reason,’ he said.”
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
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