Republican candidates in key California races looked poised to advance to the general election this morning, but with almost half of the votes yet to be counted, there’s still some possibility of a “red mirage.”
There’s no such uncertainty for establishment Democrats in other key races across the country, who comfortably made it through their primaries against more progressive challengers.
Following a volatile race with no clear front-runner until close to primary day, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra appears to be in a strong position to advance to the general election in California’s primary system, in which the top two candidates regardless of party move on to November.
Becerra is currently in second place in the vote count, just behind Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host who has President Trump’s endorsement. Both candidates are currently several points ahead of billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, who has sought to set himself as the progressive standard-bearer.
Most of California’s ballots are cast by mail, and many Democrats didn’t return their ballots this year until close to the election. That gives Steyer a possible path if the remaining ballots are left-leaning enough.
In the Los Angeles mayoral race, incumbent Karen Bass (D) is comfortably in first place with nearly two-thirds of the vote counted so far.
Republican Spencer Pratt, a former reality television personality, is in second place, about 8 points ahead of City Council member Nithya Raman, who is seeking a progressive challenge to Bass. The same dynamics benefitting Steyer could help Raman, but she has a decent amount of ground to make up.
Pratt would likely be viewed as facing a more uphill battle toward winning the mayoral race than Raman if he advances, despite Bass’s popularity plummeting during her first term.
State Sen. Scott Wiener (D), a more moderate candidate by California’s standards, who had the backing of the California Democratic Party, also finished first in the closely watched race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the former House speaker.
The more progressive San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who has Pelosi’s endorsement, is currently in second, potentially setting up a faceoff in November. That would leave out Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who has the support of key members of the so-called “Squad,” such as Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.).
Moderate Democrats also notched a major win in the Iowa Senate primary, as state Rep. Josh Turek (D) cruised to victory over state Sen. Zach Wahls (D).
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) indirectly played a notable role in the race, as the super PAC VoteVets backed Turek. The group backs veterans and their relatives for office and is considered to be in line with Schumer.
Wahls, a critic of the Democratic leader, had accused Schumer of attempting to influence the primary, though both VoteVets and Schumer denied they are tied.
The Iowa Senate race could be critical for Democrats in November if they are to have a chance of winning back control of the upper chamber.
And a moderate Democrat with backing from several local Democratic parties won the contested Democratic primary to face Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-N.J.).
Rebecca Bennett emphasized her record as a former Navy helicopter pilot, a similar background to that of Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), in the race. She easily finished first to set up the November matchup, despite accusations from Bennett’s campaign that Republicans sought to meddle in the race to boost her more progressive opponents.
Democrats are eagerly eyeing Kean’s seat, as he has been absent from Congress for nearly three months with an undisclosed medical issue.
Kean said in a statement Tuesday, ahead of becoming the GOP nominee for reelection, that he plans to return to Congress in a few weeks and will reveal his condition at that point.
Programming note: You may have noticed a new name in your inbox over the past few days. Sarah Fortinsky, a national politics reporter at The Hill, has joined the Morning Report team. You'll often see one or both of our names first thing in the morning going forward.
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