Senate map stretches in both directions

Plus: Trump, Xi exchange gifts

MORNING REPORT  MORNING REPORT Friday, September 25 | By Sarah Fortinsky and Jared Gans View Online  |  Sign up Listen and Subscribe: In today's issue: ▪ Senate battleground map expands ▪ Trump, Xi exchange gifts ▪ Journalists allowed back in White House ▪ Mortgage, bond market concerns © The Associated Press | Ellen Schmidt Senate map stretches in both directions The Senate map appears to be widening, with more states in play for both parties just a little more than five weeks out from the midterms. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report this week shifted two GOP strongholds in Democrats’ direction, moving Kansas from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” and South Carolina from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” Republicans, meanwhile, are liking their chances this year in New Hampshire and Minnesota: Cook Political Report last week shifted New Hampshire toward Republicans, from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” and the scant polling in Minnesota points to a highly competitive race, with the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing the Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and Republican Michele Tafoya tied at 42 percent. RealClearPolitics also moved three states into the “toss-up” category this past week, shifting New Hampshire and Minnesota toward Republicans, and Kansas toward Democrats. These states add to a battleground map that includes Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan and Ohio. Georgia and North Carolina are seen as becoming increasingly difficult for Republicans, while Nebraska remains a longshot as independent Dan Osborn looks to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The overall political environment favors Democrats going into November, with President Trump notching record-low approval ratings amid the Iran war and sky-high gas prices, and Democrats holding a double-digit advantage on the generic congressional ballot, according to the latest polls. But candidate quality is also proving to be a factor as the Senate map widens. In New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, Republicans convinced former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.), a member of the state’s popular political dynasty, to run for the Senate against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.). Sununu has distanced himself from the president but has nonetheless earned his endorsement, potentially satisfying both MAGA voters and never-Trump Republicans. “Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote in an analysis of the race last week. Candidate quality also seems to be shaping the race in South Carolina, where Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) was tapped this summer to fill her late brother’s seat and is now running for a full term in the upper chamber. After eking out a win in the GOP special election primary, Graham is still plagued by some of the same challenges, including unsteady debate performances and criticism over being elevated to the job because of her family name. She faces Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, who’s been running ads targeting centrist and GOP-leaning voters. “To be clear, Graham remains the heavy favorite,” Cook wrote of the race. “It's still incumbent upon Andrews to prove she can get out of the mid-40s polling — always a hurdle in South Carolina — and make this a truly competitive race.” Meanwhile, in Kansas, Democrats have gone on the attack, seizing on reporting that questions the debt collection lawsuits allegedly filed by Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s former OB-GYN practice. He also faces a formidable opponent in Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton. But Democrats also see Kansas as increasingly within reach for economic issues. Agriculture is a major factor in the state, and high fuel and fertilizer prices have squeezed many voters in the state. “We see this as an increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be called competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge,” Taylor wrote about Kansas in Wednesday’s analysis. Minnesota has consistently had close races, but a Republican hasn’t won statewide in two decades. But after the progressive lieutenant governor defeated centrist Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) in the Democratic primary, Republicans see cause for optimism. Minnesota Public Radio reports the race is oddly quiet just weeks out from election day. That may change as polls show Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, has a fighting chance. ▪ The Hill: Democrats leading in Michigan, New Hampshire Senate races: Survey. ▪ The Hill: Marshall GOP primary challenger backs Democrat in Kansas Senate race. Smart Take  with Blake Burman Trump honored Chinese leader Xi Jinping at last night’s state dinner, after they held meetings throughout the day. There’s always a host of issues at the forefront between the U.S. and China, but NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman says we shouldn’t forget the ongoing space race. I asked Isaacman which nation is leading at this point in time.  “They will absolutely do what the Soviets never could during the first space race,” Isaacman told me of China. “They intend to put their astronauts on the surface of the moon in 2029. Our intention is to do it in 2028. That means no matter what, it's coming down to months, not years. That is way too close.”  Keep in mind a year ago when we were talking about Trump and Xi, the conversation was about tariffs and trade, and not AI. We'll have to see if outer space becomes the next frontier in the ongoing competition between the two countries. Burman hosts "The Hill" weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation. 3 Things to Know Today The Department of Homeland Security asked the Supreme Court to allow it to resume deporting immigrants to countries they have no ties to, known as third-country removals. It comes after an appeals court ordered the flights to stop without giving those facing deportation a better opportunity to raise claims they’ll face torture. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a defiant speech before the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, defending Israel’s actions against Iran and attacking New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Dozens of delegates walked out during the speech. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed Thursday that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “completely” healthy despite reports that he could be in significantly poor health following the initial U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that launched the war in February. Khamenei hasn’t been seen in public since becoming supreme leader. LEADING THE DAY © The Associated Press | Alex Brandon PLACE TO BE: The first full day of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit concluded with a state dinner last night that featured a gift from Trump and a who’s who of Big Tech leaders. The dinner featured an extensive guest list, including members of the Cabinet, a few Supreme Court justices, media figures and members of Trump’s family. Also present were some of the most powerful business leaders — Meta CEO Mark Zuckerburg, OpenAI head Sam Altman, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. Trump had brought several of them with him for his trip to China back in May, emphasizing his view of the importance of their role in the U.S.-China relationship. The dinner capped a day of pomp and bilateral talks between the two powers. Trump presented Xi with a bald eagle statute as a gift to bring back to China during his remarks. That came after Xi announced earlier in the day that he was gifting the U.S. with two giant pandas and invitations for 100,000 U.S. students to study in China over the next five years. “The giant panda has been an envoy of friendship between the Chinese and the Americans,” Xi said, referencing the longstanding “panda diplomacy” that was key to improving U.S.-Chinese relations decades earlier. The day wasn’t without significant protests against Xi’s visit. A large group of protesters rallied outside the White House during the day and at night against the Chinese Communist Party leader. “Xi Jinping you’re not welcome,” one chant could be heard. ▪ The Hill: GOP senators dismayed by Trump’s embrace of Xi. ▪ CNN: Trump-Xi meeting heavy on pomp, light on substance. BACK IN THE BUILDING: Journalists for CNN, MS NOW and Politico were allowed back onto White House grounds Thursday following a federal judge’s ruling blocking Trump from banning the outlets. The banned outlets reported that their journalists and photographers were initially still denied access to the White House early in the day despite the order, leading their attorneys to petition the judge to compel the Trump administration to comply. Their reporters were ultimately allowed into the building soon after. U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, ruled in the early morning hours Thursday that the administration must restore access to the outlets, finding the bans were instituted without due process, as required by longstanding judicial precedent. Kelly’s ruling is valid for 14 days. Trump has suggested ahead of the ruling that he expected to lose and would appeal, though he hasn’t directly responded to the ruling yet. He did slam CNN and MS NOW in a Truth Social post for not covering the “made for” TV event of Xi’s visit. The status of the White House television pool remains in limbo. Journalists from multiple outlets were on hand ready to cover Xi’s visit, but they continued their boycott of the press pool given the uncertainty surrounding whether the White House would allow CNN to rejoin the rotation, The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports. The five-member TV pool includes CNN, Fox News and the three major broadcast networks. ▪ The Washington Post: White House banned Politico citing its own quotes. WATCH OUT: Economic warning signs are flashing as the war in Iran and Trump’s trade policies fuel more anxiety. The average 30-year mortgage rate surpassed 7 percent Thursday, the first time it has done so since January 2025, just before Trump came back into office. The Hill’s Max Rego reports that this marks the fifth consecutive weekly rise in mortgage rates. The rates still have room to go before reaching the 25-year high of 7.79 percent that was recorded in October 2023, but analysts expect the cost of borrowing to remain high with inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target and the war driving up energy prices. Meanwhile, the bond market is continuing to set new high marks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield hit its highest point since 2007 on Wednesday at 5.13 percent, while the 30-year bond yield hit a two-decade intraday high of 5.45 percent on Thursday. The Hill’s Niall Stanage reports for Insider about how the rise in the bond market is becoming more and more of an issue, even as public attention is on more colorful topics. Read more about why the bond market is sparking concerns and what it could mean for consumers and the battle for the midterms here. ▪ CBS News: What the bond market freaking out means for your money. NARROW DEFEAT: Another war powers resolution directing the president to withdraw troops from the Iran conflict narrowly failed in the Senate on Thursday as four Republicans joined almost all Democrats in favor. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) voted in favor of the resolution for the first time, joining fellow Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Rand Paul (Ky.), leading to a 49-50 vote. Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) was the only Senate Democrat to oppose the measure. Tillis said he flipped his vote because the war has dragged on for too long without congressional authorization, also arguing that it has become a political liability for Republican candidates. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) seemed undecided ahead of the vote but ultimately cast his vote against it. He and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) were meeting just off the Senate floor right before Cassidy voted no. The vote comes as some GOP candidates and lawmakers have started to break with the president on the war as polls show dwindling support. ▪ The Hill Insider: Pentagon turns on the jets in $1.5 trillion budget push. ▪ The Hill: Bipartisan lawmakers announce U.S. film incentive package. WHEN & WHERE The president and first lady will greet the Chinese president and his wife for tea at 10:35 a.m. They will visit the National Archives together at 11:30 a.m. He will participate in signing time at 4:30 p.m. The House and Senate are out. ZOOM IN © The Associated Press | Julia Demaree Nikhinson SHORT STAFFED: A drastically diminished workforce at the Department of Justice (DOJ) is struggling to keep up with its civil caseload after a wave of firings and departures of veteran attorneys during the Trump administration, according to documents obtained by The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch and NewsNation’s Samuel Marks. The number of attorneys in the civil division has plummeted under Trump, the documents show, substantiating longstanding concerns that the DOJ would have trouble replacing the attorneys that left earlier in the president’s term. A series of graphs — which appeared to be inadvertently shared and then recalled — track data showing a decline in civil division staff just as caseloads pick up. One chart showed how caseload was skyrocketing on each branch: Workload jumped a whopping 84 percent per attorney in the commercial litigation branch and increased by 63 percent for lawyers working in the Office of Immigration Litigation. The DOJ has lost roughly 10,000 workers since Trump took office, according to the Office of Personnel Management. That number includes staff in component agencies of the DOJ, like the FBI and the Federal Bureau of Prisons. Stacey Young, founder of the Justice Department alumni group Justice Connection, described the staff turnover as a “massive exodus” and said she doesn’t expect the departures to slow down in the near future. “Putting out this data seems to me like a desperate cry for help,” she told Beitsch. “It seems like the civil division knows how badly it needs more funds to hire more lawyers to make up for the purge of longstanding experts that they caused.” ▪ Reuters: Trump says DOJ could rein in AI companies. ▪ CBS News: DOJ says it’s moving to end 50 school desegregation cases. ELSEWHERE © The Associated Press | Julio Cortez THROWBACK: There’s increasing signs that Florida may be returning — for this cycle, at least — to the battleground status that it held for years before it turned into solid Republican territory during the Trump era. In one of the most high-profile signs of the shift, Decision Desk HQ shifted the Florida governor’s race from “leans Republican” to “toss-up” on Wednesday. Rep. Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee, currently has a 59 percent chance of winning the race against Democratic nominee and former Rep. David Jolly in the forecast. While Donalds is still the favorite, even a somewhat close race on Election Day would mark a significant shift for the state after outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) won reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022. Donalds also received attention this week after his campaign website removed multiple mentions of the president, making him one of several Republicans who have seemed to distance themselves in recent weeks. Donalds called Trump’s agenda “common sense” when pressed about the changes. He’s not the only Florida Republican who made a notable move involving Trump recently. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar turned heads last week when she released an ad accusing Trump of having gone “too far” in his administration’s immigration crackdown. Salazar represents a red-leaning district, but forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of her race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” this week. Fox News shifted 15 House races away from Republicans this week, including four contests in Florida. That included moving Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s race from “Likely R” to “Lean R” and Rep. Kathy Castor’s race from “Lean R” to “Toss Up.” Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s district was shifted from “Toss Up” to “Lean D.” At the same time, Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is hoping to pull off an upset against Sen. Ashley Moody (R). One poll from last week showed them essentially tied, a surprising result in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in more than a decade. Still, another poll out this week showed the Republicans with much more comfortable leads in both the governor and Senate races. ▪ The Hill: Mary Peltola campaign rips New York Times report on operations. ▪ The Hill: Democrats crack GOP gains with young men, poll finds. OPINION Attacks and threats against federal judges have spiked, and it threatens our democracy, Judge Shira Scheindlin writes in The Hill. The diesel export ban folly, Mike Sommers writes in The Wall Street Journal. THE CLOSER © The Associated Press | Alex Brandon And finally … 👏👏👏 Congrats to this week’s Morning Report quiz winners! They were on the scene with answers about the White House press pool. Here’s who went 4/4: Stan Wasser, Michael Salanik, Chuck Schoenenberger, Harry Strulovici, Sari Wisch, Tom Chabot, Rick Schmidtke, Richard Baznik, Linda L. Field, Leslie Hurst, Ned Sauthoff, Linda Kavalsky, Jenessa Wagner, M. Whitehouse, Terry Pflaumer, Carmine Petracca and Dan Beierman. The White House Correspondents’ Association is 112 years old, having been founded on Feb. 25, 1914. Lore states that Teddy Roosevelt invited reporters into the White House after seeing them out in a rainstorm. While that story is likely just legend, Roosevelt did revolutionize how the president interacted with the press. The first Trump administration briefly removed the credentials of Jim Acosta after he and a staffer struggled over a microphone when Acosta was questioning the president. U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly, who also ruled in the current case, ordered Acosta’s credentials to be restored, and the White House dropped its push. No journalists were kicked out of the press pool during Joe Biden’s presidency. In 2023, the White House revised its policy to require credentialed journalists to reapply. The number of hard pass holders dropped by 442 as some didn’t reapply. While one person’s application was denied, no one was kicked out. Stay Engaged We want to hear from you! 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