Trump announced last week that Russia would “immediately” supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global marketplace, with another 500,000 tons coming in November, drawing howls from Democrats and some Republicans over lifting sanctions on Moscow amid its war with Ukraine.
The president added that Russia would supply another “1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter,” and, depending on the condition of its refineries, 3 million tons in a “short period of time.”
However, the 300,000 and 500,000 figures appear not to exceed the monthly amounts that Russia is already exporting.
According to data from Kpler, Russia exported about 141,000 barrels per day in September and 178,000 barrels per day so far in October. A calculator from CME Group shows that comes to 584,000 metric tons per month in September and 722,000 metric tons per month in October.
“These are the volumes that would have gone to the global market anyway without any additional effort,” said Tatiana Mitrova, global fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
And, experts said, even if this many additional barrels were added to the market, it would be unlikely to actually make a dent in costs inside the U.S.
“The announced Russian diesel volumes are a small fraction, less than 5%, of US diesel demand over the next few months, so they should have very limited impact on US retail prices,” said Isabelle Gilks, principal analyst for retail fuels at Wood Mackenzie, in a statement shared with The Hill.
“The much bigger influence on prices is the constraint on supply. Russian exports have collapsed as Ukrainian drone attacks have taken refining capacity offline, and Middle East export routes remain disrupted. Unless the attacks stop and those routes reopen, there is little extra diesel to bring to market, just as winter demand picks up,” Gilks added.
Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, expressed a similar sentiment last week, telling The Hill the figures are “quite small” compared with the global market’s 28 million barrels per day.
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