Top Republican officials are downplaying the polls showing their party trailing Democrats across the midterm board even as the GOP is pulling money from certain key states and districts.
National Republican groups have cut their spending in several battleground contests as they prioritize other races with less than three weeks to go.
On the Senate map, the main super PAC that works to elect Republicans to the upper chamber created a big splash earlier this month when it moved money out of North Carolina, pausing a $30 million ad campaign for GOP nominee Michael Whatley, and shifted funds to Kansas. Republican groups have also pulled some money back in Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is favored to keep his seat.
On the House side, The New York Times first reported Tuesday that Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the main super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, is cutting off financial support for Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Tom Kean Jr. (N.J.), two of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents.
The group is also withdrawing its ad spending targeting Democratic members that the GOP was hoping to oust, including Reps. Greg Landsman (Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.).
Republicans have also pulled back in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, an area that President Trump carried in 2024, suggesting Rep. Susie Lee (D) is in a strong position to win reelection.
Punchbowl News reported Wednesday that CLF threw in the towel on its efforts to oust Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who is running in a district that Texas Republicans specifically drew during mid-decade redistricting to try to increase their chances of defeating him.
These moves come as Democrats have held a steady and comfortable lead in the generic congressional ballot that has seemed to expand in the past month. Polling has suggested they’re competitive in more traditionally red areas in the Midwest and South.
Republican congressional leadership has downplayed the polling, maintaining that Democrats are being overestimated, as has happened in the most recent presidential cycles.
“I’m telling you the polling is wrong,” said Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) during an interview on Fox News. “They have a lot of polling organizations right now acknowledging that they’re under-sampling Republicans because Republicans don’t want to respond to polls anymore.”
As he campaigns for House candidates, Johnson said he's seeing "huge" energy in the crowds that isn't being recorded in polling.
“Our candidates are energized, focused and disciplined,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who chairs the Senate GOP's campaign arm, said in a separate interview on Fox. “We’re going to finish well, stay in the majority, and frankly in states like Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire, we are within the margin of error. Striking distance of adding new states to our majority.”
Both Johnson and Scott referenced the possibility of pollsters under-sampling Republicans, producing results that are too skewed in favor of Democrats, a phenomenon known as nonresponse bias.
Decision Desk HQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley noted pollsters can use data they have available to determine what turnout should look like and weighting to adjust if they are struggling to reach a certain demographic. Still, it’s not necessarily an easy problem to solve.
“The worse your initial sample is, the harder it is to work your way out of it,” he explained.
Skelley said he is more optimistic about polls being decently accurate given their relative success in the 2018 and 2022 midterm cycles, and improvements in presidential years during the Trump era.
“This is a potential issue. I'm not sure it's worse now than has been in the past, and it may actually even be better, because if the 2024 polling is any indicator, the polls did do a little better on this with this problem. It doesn't mean they solved it,” Skelley said.
Analysts told Morning Report the money moves may be even more telling.
“When a party chooses to double down or pull out is a pretty good indication of what they think their chances are,” said Republican strategist Samuel Chen.
Chen said polling data is always up for interpretation, but money suggests how a party is really feeling on the ground.
Democrats have also started to pull their money out of contests like North Carolina's Senate and New Jersey’s 7th District, where Kean is running, but this comes as the party is increasingly convinced they will win these races.
“They're going to pull out of places that either are hopeless or are safe. Just like when you pull a quarterback from a football game,” Chen said.
▪ The Hill: Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up.
▪ The Hill: Three polls show James Talarico with slight lead in Texas.
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