MORNING REPORT

Friday, July 10 | By Jared Gans and Sarah Fortinsky

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In today's issue:

▪ Collins’s post-Platner reelection prospects

▪ Air Force One controversy

▪ Housing bill veto deadline tonight

▪ ‘Explosive’ parasitic illness outbreak

GOP split on what Platner’s downfall means for Collins

Republicans see pros and cons to Graham Platner’s last-minute decision to drop out of the Maine Senate race as Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) attempts to again defy political trends and win another term.

At least five Democrats have thrown their hats in the ring for an expected nominating convention that the state party will hold later this month to choose Platner's replacement, and others may enter the field.

Whoever is selected will almost certainly carry less baggage than Platner, a progressive oyster farmer who built a grassroots movement to win the Democratic nomination, only to bow out in the face of sexual assault allegations this week.

The new Democratic nominee will also inherit some potential disadvantages in running what will be an abbreviated campaign.

Some Republicans said they more optimistic than ever about Collins’ chances.

“I think that Platner soared initially because he is a unique and talented personality,” said Lance Dutson, a GOP strategist who formerly served as communications director for Collins’s 2014 campaign. “He's a good speaker, and he's got an interesting and unique backstory.”

“The odds of them being able to pull that off again ... there's nobody with just even the slightest of dynamism to them,” he added.

Still, some Republicans have expressed concerns that Collins’s challenge is about to become tougher.

A person familiar with the Collins campaign’s thinking told Politico that the campaign viewed Platner as a uniquely vulnerable opponent with all of his controversies.

Conservative commentator Charlie Sykes said on MS NOW that Collins may be in more difficult territory than she was a few weeks ago.

“If the Democrats do not tear themselves apart and they do nominate somebody who does not have that kind of baggage, then Susan Collins faces a lot of headwinds, not merely as a Republican, but... in a year which I think incumbents, particularly elderly incumbents, are not faring well,” Sykes said.

The Hill has reached out to Collins’s campaign for comment.

Many Democrats thought Collins was ripe for removal in 2020, with then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon on the ticket in a presidential election year. But the incumbent outperformed polling significantly, defeating her by nearly 9 points.

That was the closest race Collins faced since her first Senate election in 1996.

Senate Republicans’ campaign arm expressed confidence that Collins would be able to continue the pattern.

“Susan Collins has defeated every DC-anointed candidate Chuck Schumer has sent her way, and she’ll defeat whichever loser comes out of this process as well,” National Republican Senatorial Committee regional press secretary Samantha Cantrell said in a statement.

Democrats coming out of the convention unified is a considerably big “if.” The candidates are already jockeying for the top position ahead of the convention, and progressives who backed Platner are showing early signs of rallying around former state Senate President Troy Jackson.

Jackson, fresh off an unsuccessful run for governor, was an early and ardent backer of Platner. That could benefit him in winning the nomination but also could prove to be a liability in the general election.

Jackson told MS NOW that the sexual assault accusations against Platner were a “red line” that he wouldn’t cross.

Other candidates are less tied to Platner but have their own potential vulnerabilities. That includes Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who already faced Collins in 2014 and lost by more than 30 points.

Regardless of who emerges as the nominee, they would have just a bit more than 100 days to get their name and message across to voters, also starting at a severe fundraising disadvantage to Collins.

Even the candidates who have money left over from their unsuccessful gubernatorial bids cannot touch it for their Senate candidacy under state-to-federal fundraising rules.

Dutson expressed a dim view about Republicans’ chances broadly in the midterms, saying he expects a “bloodbath” for the GOP in the shadow of the Trump administration. But Collins may buck that.

“It’s been the story of Maine for 30 years or more, especially when Collins’s on the ballot,” Dutson said.

▪ The Hill: Dems fear chances of winning Senate could be slipping away.

▪ The Hill: Five lessons Democrats could learn from Platner’s exit.

3 Things to Know Today

A key federal commission has preliminarily approved Trump’s plan to build an arch in the nation’s capital, one of several ways the president has pushed to remake Washington, D.C. But the commissioners will continue debating whether a law limiting building heights should apply to the arch.
Trump has fired two out of the three members of the Election Assistance Commission, undermining its ability to assist local officials ahead of the midterms. The firings follow the Supreme Court's ruling expanding the president's authority over independent agencies.
Minister Victor Marx has won the Republican nomination for governor of Colorado, setting him to face state Attorney General Phil Weiser in November, Decision Desk HQ projected. Marx received attention for making outlandish claims about his life, including about purportedly being forced to kill a man as a child by his stepfather.

LEADING THE DAY

‘MISDIRECTION’: The Trump administration is defending the new retrofitted Air Force One jet as safe and secure following reports that the president took the older model to leave Turkey this week because the Secret Service deemed it more secure, The Hill’s Mallory Wilson reports.

“The new Air Force One is a state-of-the-art aircraft that has been fitted with high-level security protocols that ensure the safety of the President and his staff,” White House communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement.

“As the President has said recently, there are many enemies of America who have their sights on him, and we use every tool at our disposal — including distraction and misdirection — to address those threats,” he said.

President Trump insisted that he flew the older Air Force One jet from the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, to the Royal Air Force Mildenhall base in the U.K. “for old times’ sake” and “so the soldiers can see it.” He later sidestepped a question about whether he took the old plane because of threats from Iran, as The New York Times reported, saying instead that he is a top target of Iran.

But aviation security experts told Wilson and The Hill’s Filip Timotija that the president’s push to get the Qatari-gifted jet in the air as quickly as possible, while Boeing builds a new Air Force One from scratch, likely meant the retrofitted jet is lacking proper defense systems.

“The short amount of time and comparatively small amount of money spent on the bridge jet suggests that it would be difficult for it to have anywhere near the same equipment aboard that the VC-25Bs will,” said Jeremiah Gertler, who is a senior adviser at AeroDynamic Advisory and a Teal Group senior analyst, referring to the next-generation jets that are still being built.

▪ The Hill: Trump tells reporter she’ll be killed if Iran strikes Air Force One.

WAITING FOR MIDNIGHT: A bipartisan housing bill that Trump has so far refused to sign is set to go into effect at midnight tonight, unless he issues a last-minute veto.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act received overwhelming support in both chambers of Congress but has been swept up in a push from the president to get the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act passed.

Trump canceled a planned signing of the bill at the last minute late last month, vowing not to do so until the Senate approves the SAVE America Act, a key voting requirements bill.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaled last week following a meeting with Trump that the president wouldn’t veto the bill, and the only question was whether he would sign it or let it become law.

If it does become law, the bill will be a rare win for Republicans on “affordability” heading into the midterms. But Trump has already undercut his party’s messaging on the legislation, calling it a “yawn” compared to the SAVE America Act.

▪ CNBC: What to know about the housing bill.

OLYMPIAN IN COURT: Former U.S. Olympian David Hearn pleaded not guilty Thursday to a charge that he damaged the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

The former Olympian was arraigned in a packed courtroom before Judge Carmen McLean in D.C. Superior Court on a felony destruction of property charge and was released on a personal recognizance bond.

A grand jury indicted the three-time Olympic canoeist on July 2 after prosecutors alleged he “forcefully and violently” ripped up the bottom liner of the 2,082-foot reflecting pool, causing more than $1,000 in damage to two square feet of sealant.

Hearn has denied the allegations, saying shortly after his arrest last month that he “didn’t vandalize anything.” His attorneys, Norm Eisen and Mary Dohrmann, have accused federal prosecutors of attempting to “provide political cover” for the Trump administration after a botched renovation of the site.

▪ The New York Times: Three more charged with damaging the pool.

WATCH OUT: Israel has shared intelligence with the U.S. indicating a recent Iranian plan to assassinate Trump, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.

The report comes just a day after Trump referenced risks he faces during comments to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey.

“I'm No. 1 on their list,” Trump said, referring to Iran.

The reported intelligence-sharing from Israel comes as relations between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been strained recently over the future of the Iran war.

The U.S. and Iran have exchanged fire this week in the latest threat to the fragile ceasefire agreed to last month.

▪ Reuters: Iran says it buried slain supreme leader.

▪ Axios: Trump revels in U.S. military might.

WHEN & WHERE

The president will participate in a policy meeting at 1:30 p.m. and participate in a swearing-in ceremony for the special envoy for American landowners at 3 p.m.
The House and Senate are out.

ZOOM IN

DATA CENTER DIVERGENCE: Democrats are largely in agreement that AI data centers constitute a problem, but they’re divided on how to address them.

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin and Julia Shapero report that some kind of restriction is a no-brainer for Democrats given the centers’ high energy usage, impacting both electricity bills and climate change. How far they should go is an open question.

Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (N.J.), the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, called for a moratorium on constructing data centers nationwide, an idea not all party leaders have embraced.

At least two Democratic-controlled state legislatures have passed bills to institute pauses on construction, but one was vetoed while the other awaits the governor’s signature.

Democratic congressional leadership has said the centers need to pay their fair share of rising energy costs. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said earlier this year that Democrats will push for “strong, enforceable consumer protections,” while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said the American consumer must be protected while innovation is supported.

But neither has appeared to back a specific policy proposal to accomplish those goals.

Progressives, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), have called for a complete moratorium, but various Democratic governors have come out against the proposal.

Narrower, bipartisan legislation has made some headway in Congress.

The Ratepayer Protection Act, led by Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) and Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), which would require state utility regulators to create rules ensuring Americans don’t pay for building new power generation and transmission lines, advanced out of a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee in late June.

“People want guardrails. They do not want their electric bills to go up … they’re concerned about water,” Castor told The Hill last month. “If it gets to a point where the guardrails aren’t going in and companies are running roughshod over [them], we’re going to have to get there,” she added of a moratorium.

▪ The Hill: Lawmakers press agencies on AI election threats.

▪ The Associated Press: Meta plans billions for first AI data center in Canada.

ELSEWHERE

MICHIGAN OUTBREAK: Michigan is experiencing one of the largest outbreaks in U.S. history of cyclospora, a parasitic infection capable of causing weeks and sometimes months of watery diarrhea “with frequent and sometimes explosive bowel movements,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

As of Thursday morning, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) reported 1,251 confirmed cases, with 44 hospitalizations and no deaths. That number jumped from 992 confirmed cases and 40 hospitalizations the day before.

“The source of the outbreak has not been identified, and MDHHS continues to work with local health departments and partners to investigate cases and provide updates as more information becomes available,” MDHHS said on its site.

While Michigan is bearing the brunt of the outbreak, various other states have also been dealing with rising cases, including four — New York, Ohio, Illinois and North Carolina — with more than 100 confirmed cases.

The CDC said the illness is usually not life-threatening but can last several weeks or months if not treated with an antibiotic.

Cyclospora spreads after eating food or drinking water that has been contaminated with feces. Person-to-person infection is unlikely, and the parasite is typically linked to fresh produce.

Past outbreaks have been linked to foods such as bagged salad kits, raspberries, basil and snow peas. The cause of the current outbreak is still under investigation.

Other possible severe symptoms include cramps, nausea, fatigue and vomiting.

▪ Nexstar: Map where cases have been reported.

▪ TODAY: Precautions to follow.

OPINION

Losing in Ukraine, is Putin finally down to his nukes? Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write in The Hill.
Governments must fix their debt messes before it’s too late, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg writes in Bloomberg.

THE CLOSER

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congrats to last week’s Morning Report quiz winners! They knew their stuff about Maine’s long-serving maverick senator.

Here’s who went 4/4: Jess Elger, Chuck Schoenenberger, Harry Strulovici, Shirley Speidell, Michael Salanik, Linda L. Field, Mark R. Williamson, Ned Sauthoff and Steve James.

Collins has participated in more than 10,000 consecutive votes. Only former Sen. William Proxmire (D-Wis.) has more consecutive votes without interruption.

Shenna Bellows lost the 2014 Maine Senate race by more than 30 points, before she had served in any public office in Maine. Bellows had been the executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Maine before running.

This was a bit of a trick question. Collins did not buck her party on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as she voted in favor of a procedural vote to advance the bill before ultimately voting against it on the final vote. A few people said Bill Clinton’s impeachment, which Collins technically didn’t buck her party on because the House impeaches the president. She did break with many Republicans in voting to acquit Clinton in the Senate, but we’ll accept both answers to this question.

Collins voted to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 before he would go on to vote to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. She also voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch, but the vote did not receive the same amount of scrutiny as the nomination was approved some more breathing room. Collins voted against confirming Amy Coney Barrett.