By Chris Stirewalt | July 10, 2026
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By Chris Stirewalt
July 10, 2026
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Robert F. Bukaty, Associated Press
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Whole Hog Politics: As goes Maine, so goes …
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This 19th century chestnut sprang from the fact that prior to 1960, Maine held its gubernatorial elections in September rather than November. From 1840 to 1936, the results of the Maine state race were a key data point for ye olde election forecasters in the days before reliable public polling. While Maine was very Republican for most of that time, a strong showing for a Democratic candidate or an occasional upset was found to have a strong correlation to the national vote two months later. The surprise victory of Benjamin Harrison in 1888, for example, had been foretold by the lopsided victory of Edwin Burleigh as Maine governor in September.
The point wasn’t that the country followed Maine’s example, but rather that Maine was a good bellwether for how persuadable voters were breaking in a period of political deadlock very much like our own. The death knell for the maxim came long before Maine standardized its election date after the 1956 contest. The end came in 1936 when, following a robust showing for Maine Republicans who flipped the governorship after losing in the 1932 New Deal landslide, some race watchers said it was a bad omen for President Franklin Roosevelt’s reelection. It was not, with Republican Alf Landon carrying only two states, both in the GOP’s then-stronghold of New England. Thus the riposte from Roosevelt campaign manager James Farley: “As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”
Platner was probably not thinking about the political prognosticators of the Gilded Age when he offered his tag line, though. Rather, he was trying to make the case that the results of the Senate contest in which he has been engaged would be the start of a larger political shift in which democratic socialists — or in his case, the allies of democratic socialism — storm the battlements of the “establishment and corporate media.”
It took 20 years for the mojo from democratic socialist Bernie Sanders‘s (I-Vt.) 2006 Senate victory to cross the Maine border and inspire Platner’s surge, but maybe he’s on to something now.
It sounds as far-fetched as the Tea Party Republican claims of 15 years ago that a transpartisan revolution would shake the “uniparty” to its core. We’ve certainly ended up with a more populistic and more ideologically incontinent Republican Party, but the partisan divide is deeper than ever. What we’ve seen in the GOP and very much with Democrats along the way is a shrinking sphere of influence in the larger electorate driven by ever greater power of small groups of activists inside partisan elections.
What happens in Maine will depend on 1) Platner actually dropping out, 2) the process for picking his replacement and 3) the ideological valence of that replacement. A November victory by a radical in the Platnerian mold would be deemed an augury of a coming socialist wave, just as a win by a more establishment-friendly candidate would be treated as proof that moderation was essential. Conversely, a November defeat by a candidate in either camp would be treated as evidence of that faction’s doom. Maybe we prognosticators haven’t come so far since 1888, after all …
But here’s the thing: It isn’t what happens in midterms that matters for the next chapter of American politics, but rather what partisans think happened. And in that way, the 2028 presidential contest is already very much underway, especially in key Senate races.
In the closing weeks of 2004, Democrats were reaching the unavoidable conclusion that cultural progressivism had become an unaffordable luxury, crediting as they did, “God, guns and gays” for George W. Bush’s reelection as president that November.
One popular villain for moderate Democrats at the time was filmmaker Michael Moore, who in that era had scored big hits on the left with documentaries about the National Rifle Association and the Bush administration’s response to the 9/11 attacks, especially their connections to evangelical Christianity.
Former White House chief of staff and future Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned that the election of 2004 might be remembered as the year the party of Roosevelt became the “party of Michael Moore” that mocked the “legitimate feelings and beliefs” of ordinary Americans.
In Virginia, then-Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine was readying a run for the top office in the commonwealth to succeed his boss, then-Gov. Mark Warner, who was getting favorable mentions for a 2008 presidential run as soon as 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry conceded defeat. Kaine and Warner, Democrats were told, represented a kind of red-state strategy for a party that was decisively losing the culture war.
Dubbed the “Virginia model,” the approach of downplaying cultural issues when possible and highlighting areas of agreement got a huge boost when Kaine — a confessing Christian who spoke of his personal opposition to abortion — mounted a comeback victory to win the governorship in 2005.
“We proved that people are more interested in fiscal responsibility than ideological bickering,” Kaine said in his victory speech. “We proved that faith in God is a value for all and that we can all share regardless of our partisan labels.”
A chastened Democratic Party looked ahead to the 2008 presidential cycle ready to do the responsible thing and pick somebody who wouldn’t sneer at the hayseeds like Moore but rather smile warmly at every NASCAR dad and soccer mom. But then, lightning struck.
The 2006 midterm elections were an absolute rout for Republicans. Brutal reversals in the occupation of Iraq, high energy prices, a squidgy economy and an appalling, late-breaking scandal in the Republican-controlled House combined to set Bush and his party up for an old-fashioned shellacking. Democrats not only flipped the House but won several stunning Senate victories — flipping six Republican-held seats. They even won in Virginia.
The effect of the landslide on the Democratic electorate was profound. Rather than thinking about how to avoid the mistake of nominating another blue state liberal, Democrats started to explore the possibilities of a candidate who could dramatically alter the direction of the nation — about “big, structural change,” as the saying went.
That energy alit on then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), whose victory had been an unusual bright spot for Democrats amid the gloom of 2004. This was bad news for the mainstream consensus candidate, then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), who had outlasted the lesser-known contenders to be the moderate choice. None of that would have worked had Obama not been a generational political talent nor if he wouldn’t have very carefully avoided being branded as a radical himself, especially on social issues like gay marriage.
But it never would have been possible without the 2006 midterm election sweep and its implications for the aspirations of the Democratic electorate.
So as we watch these Senate races unfold we ought to be looking for how the results will shape the composition of Congress, but also how the perceived results affect the psyches of both parties.
Republicans, after all, will be shaped by the results. Nobody has more on the line this November than Vice President Vance. If the GOP gets skunked badly, it will embolden those in the party who say that Trumpism has run its course and it’s time to move on.
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Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 a.m. ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audience.
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Programming alert: Watch “The Hill Sunday” with Chris Stirewalt — Get the latest from decisionmakers from around the country and Washington insiders. And, as always, we’ll get expert analysis from our best-in-the-business panel of journalists, including Bill Sammon of The Hill, Sabrina Siddiqui of The Wall Street Journal, and Tamara Keith of NPR. Be sure to catch us on NewsNation at 10 a.m. ET / 9 a.m. CT or your local CW station.
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Is the American dream still possible?
2011: 44 percent
2016: 48 percent
2026: 35 percent
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Is America in a state of decline?
2011: 64 percent
2016: 49 percent
2026: 68 percent
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Is capitalism working very or somewhat well? (2026)
18-34 year olds: 42 percent
35-49 year olds: 46 percent
50-64 year olds: 48 percent
65+ year olds: 56 percent
(WSJ-NORC survey of 1,862 adults)
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Light and Shadow on Vermeer
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Harper’s Magazine: “There’s an anecdote that crops up sooner or later in almost any book about Johannes Vermeer. In 1663, a French diplomat named Balthasar de Monconys traveled to the Netherlands. More than once, he visited the city of Delft. On his final visit, he noted in his diary, he made Vermeer’s acquaintance. He asked to see some of the artist’s work; Vermeer had none to show, he said, but he directed Monconys to the house of a baker who had bought one of his pictures. Monconys was astounded by the amount the baker had paid—six hundred livres! ‘I myself would have thought six pistoles [a tenth of that sum] too high a price.’ Those are the details. The question is what they mean. Some scholars claim that this well-traveled Frenchman’s interest in the painter must indicate that Vermeer was known to contemporary connoisseurs. Others argue that Monconys had no idea who Vermeer was and encountered him by chance, while on secret Jesuit business in the neighborhood. Then there is the fact that Vermeer couldn’t—or wouldn’t?—show him any of his paintings. Was he hiding them? Were they all at the house of his principal patron? If so, why not send Monconys there, rather than to a baker who owned a single work?”
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Senate Hopefuls Dropping Like Flies
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Platner finally dropped, what happens next for Maine Democrats?: The New York Times: “Graham Platner suspended his campaign for Senate in Maine on Wednesday, bowing to intense pressure from party leaders after a rape allegation he denies, and opening an uncertain and highly unusual chapter for Maine Democrats. Mr. Platner’s exit leaves the Maine Democratic Party less than three weeks to find a replacement to challenge Senator Susan Collins, a vulnerable Republican, in one of the country’s most competitive battlegrounds. When and how will Democrats pick a new nominee? There is no set process by which the state party must choose a replacement, but its leaders said in a statement late Wednesday that it would hold some form of nominating convention. The deadline to find a new nominee is July 27 under state law. The state party leaders said in their statement that they would soon announce a ‘full timeline, details for how the nomination process will move forward, information about how to participate, and requirements for candidates.’”
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When the middle drops out, which Michigan Democrat will win?: The Washington Post: “The most significant battle between the Democratic Party’s warring factions is taking shape in the fight over the U.S. Senate nomination in Michigan — a swing state and crucial seat for Democrats to hold if they are to have a real hope a regaining control of Congress. This week, the lines became even sharper in a race where the polling has been close. With the withdrawal of state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who had been struggling for traction in a middle lane, the Aug. 4 primary race has come down to two starkly different contenders: Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official who has the backing and organizational strength of the Democratic Socialists of America and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), and Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate House member around whom Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York) and much of the Democratic establishment have rallied.”
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Paxton takes heat for spending July 4 in U.K. with alleged paramour: Washington Examiner: “Texas state Rep. James Talarico is bringing attention to the fact that his Senate opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, spent the Fourth of July in the United Kingdom instead of the United States as the race becomes more personally contentious. ‘Americans celebrated 250 years of independence from Britain this weekend,” Talarico posted on X. Ken Paxton spent it with the British.’ The Texas Democrat’s post included a video showing the Republican state attorney general walking in London with a woman in a green dress. Paxton turned around and looked at the camera, showing his face before he walked away. The woman is believed to be his alleged mistress, Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, the Daily Mail first reported on Tuesday. Paxton and Duhon met in May 2024 at the Kentucky Derby while both were married.”
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Talarico triples Paxton fundraising: Texas Tribune: “State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, raised a staggering $30 million from April through June, his campaign announced Wednesday — more than triple the amount brought in by his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton. The haul is a record total for a U.S. Senate candidate in the second quarter of an election year, Talarico’s campaign said, noting he has now raised more than $70 million from over 1.5 million donations, including 780,000 individual contributors, since launching his bid in September. ‘I’m honored to stand alongside more than 780,000 neighbors who are tired of being divided into teams — red versus blue, left versus right, rural versus urban,” Talarico, D-Austin, said in a statement. “We are uniting Texans onto one team to change this broken, corrupt political system and bring down costs for working families.’”
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Trump DOJ puts pressure on the other Dan Sullivan in Alaska: NBC News: “State and federal prosecutors in Alaska are investigating whether the campaign for a U.S. Senate candidate who has the same name as the Republican incumbent could be part of a conspiracy to confuse voters. … Dan J. Sullivan, a former teacher, announced his campaign in May and recently registered as a Republican. He has said he’s mounting a legitimate effort to unseat the other Sullivan, Dan S. Sullivan, who has been in office since 2015. But Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and Republicans have alleged that the newcomer launched the campaign in an attempt to confuse voters and that he’s working with the Democratic challenger Mary Peltola. … Now, NBC News has learned, the FBI, the Alaska attorney general and the U.S. attorney’s office in Alaska are all investigating whether two or more people conspired to create the Sullivan challenger’s campaign with the intention to confuse voters, hurt the incumbent and boost votes for Peltola.”
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Judge nixes DOJ’s bid for personal info about Georgia election workers: The Hill: “A federal judge on Tuesday denied the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) request for personal information from election workers in Fulton County, Ga., as part of its investigation into President Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election. U.S. District Judge William Ray found in his order that the DOJ could not use a grand jury subpoena ‘as their tool’ to investigate these fraud claims, nor could they subpoena private information ‘with no legitimate law enforcement purpose.’ Ray called the government’s April request ‘staggering,’ noting that it asked for personal details including workers’ names, positions, residential and email addresses, and personal cellphone numbers.”
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Civil Rights division makes a bid to join Trump’s election scrum: The New York Times: “The Justice Department sent letters to all 50 states and the District of Columbia on Tuesday threatening criminal prosecution of top election officials if ballots cast by noncitizens were counted in upcoming elections. … The letters sent on Tuesday came from Harmeet Dhillon, who runs the Justice Department’s civil rights division. They are largely identical, according to multiple copies obtained by The New York Times. The seven-page letters detail a host of federal election laws that prohibit noncitizens from voting in elections — laws that have been clear for decades.”
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New clash over voter fraud in key Arizona county: The Wall Street Journal: “In videos released this summer by Maricopa County, two election staff—one of them a top aide to the Maricopa County recorder—removed a ballot envelope scanner and provisional ballot envelopes from a secure location while votes for a special election were still being tallied. They returned the equipment within an hour. The incident is the latest flashpoint in an increasingly bitter fight between the mostly Republican elected officials who run elections in Arizona’s biggest county. The clash has rekindled a debate many Arizona voters had hoped to move on from. Voters here could help determine the balance of the U.S. House and will vote in some of the most competitive statewide races in the country. With weeks to go until the state’s primaries and early voting already under way, the feud threatens to sow further distrust in election accuracy ahead of the midterms.”
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Kentucky governor wants answers about McConnell’s health as special election date looms — ABC News
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Short-term gain, but maybe long-term pain for GOP in wake of SupCo campaign finance decision — The Hill
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Planned Parenthood readies massive midterm spending blitz against GOP — Politico
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Deep-pocketed Ken Griffin says he’d pick Rubio, not Vance to back for ‘28 — Axios
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Democrat Rebecca Bennett threads needle on mental health after Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.) returns from months-long treatment for depression — Politico
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TABLE TALK: LEANING INTO THE FIGHT
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“Without question, the alliance is at a crossroads. It cannot stand or survive as it has been. To maintain the strength of our ties, we need significant changes and a new direction.”
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“If Congresswoman Stevens makes it, or Mike Rogers wins, either way, Israel will win.”
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Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed in Democratic primary debate with Haley Stevens on Wednesday.
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“Sorry to see some beancounter at The Hill put your Whole Hog Friday show behind a paywall. We’ll reduce your viewership by two because I am not going to pay $89.95 extortion from The Hill. Again your banter with [Bill Sammon] was must see viewing but not for nearly $100. It’s been great to see you and Bill banter back and forth. … Anyway, hope your beancounters’ extortion of the readers fails big time.”
Lynn Gardner, Arlington, Va.
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Ms. Gardner,
I don’t know that I would pay that much to listen to Bill either. But for the basic package of $5.99 a month, maybe …
I kid, I kid. But I can’t blame you for being frustrated with being presented with yet another subscription service. The media world has become a set of nesting dolls of subscriptions within subscriptions. Just to watch a Cardinals game this summer, my sons and I find ourselves scanning codes, retrieving long-forgotten passwords and reinstalling apps.
But I also understand why so many things are shaping up this way. High-end content is expensive to produce and in-depth coverage is hard to sell to a general audience that wants quick hits more than deep dives. The Hill is attempting a hybrid model in which free, ad-supported content remains the mainstay, but offers specialty content on a subscription basis. I really hope it succeeds — not just because it would be good for me and for this note, but because it’s important to me that we find ways to make aspirationally fair political coverage profitable enough to be self-sustaining.
And I very sincerely do think that $6 a month ($54.99 a year) isn’t wildly unreasonable for what’s on offer, which includes not just this newsletter and the Friday video chat, but multiple stories a day, a half-dozen other newsletters and other interactive calls. It’s not worth that for everyone, and I would absolutely understand if it’s not for you — even if I would be very sorry to see you go.
You can always watch new, completed episodes on YouTube even if you don’t subscribe, and this newsletter won’t go behind the paywall until next month, so I hope this still finds your inbox.
Thanks for all your interest and support, and I hope you’ll give us a chance.
All best,
c
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“Thank you for publishing these assorted writings about our independence and revolution. It was an honor to repost John Locke’s 1690 treatise to Facebook. Good luck on your new adventure.”
Barabra Bell, New York, N.Y. (now expatriated in France)
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Ms. Bell,
I love to hear it! One more gift from the great philosopher: “A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World.”
All best,
c
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Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, recipes, and, always, good jokes.
Please include your real name — first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know if you want to keep your submission private.
My colleague, Appalachian explorer Camille Miner, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!
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United 24: “Rural residents across Russia are increasingly turning to horses and bicycles as alternatives to personal vehicles amid a worsening domestic fuel crisis, The Moscow Times reported on July 6. Data from livestock breeders indicates that the demand for working horses has spiked several-fold in recent weeks, allowing approximately 1,000 animals to avoid slaughterhouses. While a single horse previously waited up to three months for a buyer, rural farms are now selling or booking seven to eight animals per month. The Moscow Times noted that residents are utilizing the animals for daily farm labor, foraging, and navigating off-road terrain. Depending on age and breed, the price of a working horse ranges between 100,000 and 200,000 rubles ($1287 to $2574). Despite recurring expenses for feed, hoof care, and veterinary checkups, some rural families find maintaining a horse cheaper than fueling domestic SUVs like the UAZ or Niva. Bicycle sales have also climbed dramatically as fuel shortages persist across the country.”
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
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