MORNING REPORT

Monday, July 27 | By Jared Gans

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In today's issue:

▪ US holds off Iran strikes for now

▪ Ken Martin back under scrutiny

▪ Maine Senate matchup set

▪ German police kill Pride attack suspect

US pauses Iran war amid warnings about stockpiles

The war with Iran took a pause over the weekend as top U.S. officials raise concerns about dwindling munitions stockpiles.

The U.S. and Iranian militaries broke a streak of 13 consecutive days of tit-for-tat strikes Saturday, after President Trump threatened last week to drastically escalate the war if Iran continued to threaten ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told “Fox News Sunday” that Trump is trying to give peace talks “some space.”

“He’s giving it a little bit of room,” Waltz said. “We’ve had both Oman and Iran and a number of our other negotiators engaged at every level, from the most senior levels all the way down to the technical level, over the past few weeks and particularly in the past few days.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran has made progress in talks with Oman about establishing safe passage for ships seeking to traverse the waterway. Still, he maintained that the strait’s status is the same, requiring Iranian oversight of vessels passing through the strait on an approved route — a status quo that has thus far been unacceptable to the Americans.

A memorandum of understanding signed last month effectively collapsed two weeks ago, leading Trump to consider a return to all-out war. Some of his top advisors seem to be steering him away from escalation.

The New York Times reported Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has privately argued resuming major combat operations against Iran would seriously deplete the antimissile interceptors available to U.S. Central Command (Centcom). The outlet reported the threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations risky.

Vice President Vance raised concerns about escalating the war in a meeting with the president at the White House on Friday, CNN reported.

Two sources with knowledge of Centcom commander Adm. Brad Cooper’s position told Axios that Cooper has recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness.

Waltz appeared to both confirm and brush off concerns about stockpiles in multiple Sunday morning news show appearances, telling NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the U.S. has “everything that it needs” to conduct military operations against Iran.

“I want to be crystal clear: The U.S. military, and I’ve verified this every which way, has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be,” he said.

Waltz also pointed the finger at the Biden administration, arguing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth “inherited a depleted situation” because of U.S. support for Ukraine and strikes on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Trump administration also conducted strikes on the Houthis last year over the militant group’s targeting of ships in the Red Sea.

The debate comes as the administration has been trying to put pressure on Congress to provide supplemental funding for the Pentagon to continue the war.

House Republicans approved a $95 billion framework last week for a reconciliation package that would provide additional funding for munitions. But the proposal faces an uphill battle in the Senate with Democrats overwhelmingly opposed and would not immediately alleviate the weapons squeeze.

Waltz emphasized that the U.S. is ready to return to combat operations at any point.

Tensions are still on the rise in other parts of the region. The Houthis fired missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia on Saturday in retaliation for Saudi attacks.

Meanwhile, Iran summoned a Ukrainian diplomat to Tehran on Sunday after Ukraine attacked an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Russia has been using Iranian-designed drones and other weapons and supplies in its war against Ukraine.

▪ The Hill: GOP senators warn confidence in Hegseth eroding.

▪ The Hill: Iran war threatens to blunt GOP midterm turnout.

3 Things to Know Today

Four U.S. troops killed during renewed fighting with Iran in recent weeks are no longer listed as part of the war’s official death toll by the Pentagon. They are instead included in a separate category called “Overseas Operations.”
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is pushing to eliminate a key safety requirement that has limited the amount of radiation that people in the U.S. are exposed to. The change would replace a requirement to keep exposure “as low as reasonably achievable” with a “graded approach.”
One suspect is in custody while another is at large following what officials believe was a shootout between two people at a food festival in Seattle. Three people were killed, with four others injured.

LEADING THE DAY

UNDER DURESS: Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin is facing renewed scrutiny with less than 100 days until Election Day.

The DNC has been in difficult financial straits for many months, dealing with millions of dollars of debt while the Republican National Committee enjoys a sizable advantage. The New York Times added to that picture Sunday with reporting that DNC leaders have asked vendors not to send bills until after the midterms.

The outlet, citing interviews with more than two dozen Democrats — including current and former DNC members — reported Martin is increasingly isolated and worried that he will lose his job.

Martin’s 18-month tenure has been rocky from the start. He has been plagued by clashes with former DNC Vice Chair David Hogg, in addition to controversy over the release of the committee’s long-delayed 2024 autopsy, which Martin had at first pledged to release before backtracking.

Martin eventually released the postmortem in the face of widespread pressure but downplayed its conclusions as incomplete.

But the DNC’s financial situation has been a source of many Democrats’ anxiety as the party hopes to rebound from its defeat two years ago.

NOTUS reported the DNC put its physical headquarters up for collateral last year to obtain a $15 million line of credit to invest in off-year elections. The building has been used as collateral in the past, but the DNC’s need to do it ahead of this year’s elections has raised alarm among some members about the strain.

A Democrat close to the DNC told the outlet that Martin has struggled to convince donors to maximize their contributions, leading to a small amount of money in the bank.

Despite the turmoil, Democrats remain the favorites to win the House in 100 days, while Republicans have a 60 percent chance of holding the Senate, according to the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) model.

▪ The Hill: Trump tariffs come back to haunt GOP as elections near.

▪ The Hill: House GOP looks to silver linings for midterm playbook.

GAME ON: The Maine Senate race finally appears set as former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson formally clinched the Democratic nomination to face Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in what will be one of the most-watched contests this year.

Jackson will have just 100 days to mount a campaign against the longtime senator, who has been a target for Democrats in past election years, only for her to easily win another term. Democrats view the race as a must-win for them to have a chance at winning control of the Senate in November.

Jackson easily won at the state Democratic Party’s nominating convention held Saturday to replace Graham Platner, who dropped out earlier this month amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies.

Party members have largely coalesced around Jackon’s candidacy, but he will face a challenge in navigating an abbreviated campaign and starting well behind Collins in fundraising.

DDHQ’s model rates the race as a “toss-up.”

The Hill’s Caroline Vakil provides a dispatch from the nominating convention in Bangor on the 100-day sprint ahead for Jackson.

▪ WBUR: Can a logger take on Collins?

▪ The Hill: Appeals court upholds injunction on Trump mail-in voting order.

THUNE IN: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is facing pressure to advance several key GOP priorities this week, after the House left town for August recess.

Thune’s main goal is to advance a government funding measure to keep federal agencies covered at current levels past the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. The House has passed a stopgap measure to fund the government though Dec. 4, but Senate Democrats are expected to oppose it.

Trump has pushed Thune to focus on passing the budget resolution, but Thune has maintained he doesn’t have the necessary 50 votes to pass it. Instead, the Senate GOP leader has indicated he plans to hold the resolution back to preserve it in case Republicans need to use reconciliation as a fallback option to keep the government funded.

The president’s nominees also face a critical week. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s nomination hangs in the balance as the Senate Judiciary Committee is set to meet Thursday for a vote.

And Trump’s nominee to serve as director of national intelligence, Jay Clayton, is expected to receive a final vote before the full Senate.

▪ The Hill: This week on the Hill: Senate faces a packed to-do list.

▪ The Hill: Thune faces mounting Trump pressure.

STEADY TRAFFIC: The Trump administration’s operation to conduct airstrikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats hasn't reduced the amount of cocaine entering the U.S. as criminal organizations turn to other methods to move their product, The Washington Post reported.

A previously unreported assessment from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) said traffickers have diversified beyond go-fast boats and changed their routes to avoid international waters, instead using larger boats and staying closer to coastlines, where U.S forces are less likely to strike.

The Post reported Pentagon officials told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee last month that a DEA analysis of confiscated cocaine showed high levels of purity, suggesting supply remains consistent.

The U.S. has attacked at least 67 boats and killed more than 220 people under Operation Southern Spear over the past year.

▪ CNN: U.S. hasn’t blown up an alleged drug boat in a month.

WHEN & WHERE

The president will travel to Milford, Mich., where he will view a drag race and vehicle demonstration at 1:55 p.m. He will participate in a tour and gift ceremony at 2:10 p.m. and deliver remarks at 2:50 p.m. Later, he will return to the White House.
The House will convene at 9:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.
The Senate will meet at 3 p.m.

ZOOM IN

RUNNING ON EMPTY: Gas and electricity prices are rising a year and a half after Trump took office, despite a campaign pledge to bring down energy costs, The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports.

Trump had promised to lower the price of power by 50 percent or more when campaigning in 2024.

“We intend to slash prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months,” he said at one rally.

But AAA data shows gas prices are about 60 cents higher than they were at this point in 2024, averaging $4.11 per gallon on Monday. Average household electricity costs for the first five months of 2026 were about 12 percent higher than they were for the same period of 2024, outpacing inflation.

The rising gas prices are a result of the Iran war, with chaos surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Frazin that once the U.S. takes out Iran’s ability to attack commercial ships in the strait, oil and gas prices “will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”

The picture with electricity is more complicated, Frazin reports, as experts said the electric grid is close to needing updates.

Tom Rowlands-Rees, head of Global Power Markets Analysis at BloombergNEF, said he believes Trump’s goal was unattainable.

“I don’t think it was something that the government could have achieved, even if they made all the right policy choices, because those policy choices wouldn’t have an impact on such a short timescale,” he said.

▪ The Hill: Three in five overestimate how much gas prices have risen.

▪ The Hill: Green grant cancellations ‘based solely’ on states’ political affiliation.

ELSEWHERE

TRACKED DOWN: German police shot and killed a suspect who they believe carried out an attack on an LGBTQ Pride event in Berlin over the weekend.

Authorities said officers killed Abdul Ballout, a German citizen with Lebanese roots, after a search that lasted almost 24 hours. Officials said Ballout previously sought to join the Islamic State.

At least one person was killed and 29 others were injured in what officials have stated they believe was a terrorist attack. They said Ballout drove a van into a crowd near the Pride festival before stabbing people with a machete.

The celebrations were called off after the attack.

Officers tracked Ballout to a garden in a Berlin suburb by Sunday evening local time, and they shot him after he began to run toward them with a sharp instrument, authorities said.

Hundreds of mourners gathered on Sunday at a memorial at the Brandenburg Gate for the victims of the attack. Berlin’s Pride festival is one of Europe’s largest LGBTQ celebrations.

▪ BBC: What we know so far about the attack.

OPINION

How the modern plea bargain undercuts the constitutional right to a jury trial, Matthew T. Martens writes in The Hill.
JD Vance is bringing back old-school politics, and it just might save the Republican Party, Douglas MacKinnon writes in The Hill.

THE CLOSER

And finally … Slovenian Tadej Pogacar won a record-tying fifth Tour de France title Sunday, moving him up the list as one of the greatest cyclists of all time.

The 27-year-old moved into a tie with four other cyclists as the only people to have won five titles.

The race was held against the backdrop of intensifying heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued much of Europe in recent weeks. The final stage of the competition Sunday needed to be reduced in length by a third to divert officers to fight wildfires in southwestern France.

Pogacar finished six and a half minutes ahead of his closest competitors, won five stages of the race and set records on two of the most daunting climbs in cycling, The Guardian reported.