MORNING REPORT

Tuesday, August 18 | By Jared Gans and Sarah Fortinsky

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In today's issue:

▪ Republicans face off in Florida

▪ CBP pauses border barrier construction

▪ Supreme Court denies Trump appeal

▪ Progressives challenge ‘Donroe Doctrine’

Future of Florida GOP up for grabs

Republican eyes are shifting to Florida today as voters head to the polls to choose a successor to term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

The Sunshine State has undergone a significant political transformation over the past eight years since DeSantis was first elected, shifting from one of the top battleground states in the country to a solid Republican stronghold.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who is endorsed by President Trump, is hoping to continue the GOP’s dominance in the state with a win in the primary Tuesday, but a few opponents, including a highly controversial far-right challenger, are seeking to pull off an upset.

If he wins the nomination, as he’s favored to do, he’ll certainly be the favorite in the general election. Donalds would be Florida’s first Black governor.

The three-term congressman has the support of the most influential figure in the Republican Party in Trump, along with many other notable GOP officials, including Florida’s two senators, Rick Scott and Ashley Moody.

But Donalds is facing opposition from several high-profile rivals, including Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investment firm founder James Fishback. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner is also seeking the nomination.

Despite being significantly outraised and outspent by Donalds, Fishback is hoping he can pull off a stunning upset after a tense campaign that has been frequently defined by inflammatory comments and personal attacks.

Fishback, who is white with Colombian heritage, has made several race-related remarks throughout his campaign, including some pointed at Donalds. He has repeatedly referred to Donalds as a “slave” to corporate interests and donors, referred to him as “By’rone” in a social media post and alleged Donalds’s election would turn Florida into a “Section 8 ghetto.”

Fishback has also positioned himself as a harsh critic of U.S. support for Israel and faced accusations of antisemitism. He’s used the term “goyslop” to refer to fast food, invoking an online term that’s caught on among antisemitic sectors of the internet.

Fishback has denied he’s antisemitic and vowed to represent all Floridians regardless of background if elected. But his comments spurred an organization allied with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to spend $400,000 on an ad campaign targeting Fishback for alleged antisemitism.

Polling has been split on how large Donalds’s lead is.

Some surveys have shown Donalds ahead by double digits, approaching or surpassing 50 percent. But a few others have shown a much closer race.

In the latest public poll of the race, Donalds led by less than 5 points, with 34 percent support to Fishback’s 29.4 percent. The Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Donalds more comfortably ahead with 37 percent support, followed by Fishback with 18.4 percent and Collins with 16.6 percent.

Adding to the uncertainty is DeSantis, who has declined to endorse any candidate to succeed him. He remains highly popular among Florida Republicans, and there’s some signs that he may be using his influence against Donalds.

The relationship between DeSantis and Donalds has reportedly worsened in the past couple years, stemming in part from Donalds’s decision to endorse Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary over his own state’s governor.

CNN reported DeSantis has worked for months publicly and privately to argue Donalds isn’t fit to replace him, even sharing his concerns with Trump, a person close to DeSantis told the outlet.

But DeSantis has largely stayed out of the race publicly otherwise and has not thrown his support behind any of Donalds’s opponents. He did praise Renner in comments earlier this month but stopped short of an endorsement.

While Donalds appears on track to win the nomination, a strong showing from Fishback could quickly put Florida on the map for Democrats this November.

Former Rep. David Jolly, who served as a Republican but has since joined the Democratic Party, is viewed as the favorite to win the party's nomination for governor.

▪ Politico: Trump voted by mail in Florida.

▪ The Hill: Zohran Mamdani hits challenges even as his popularity rises.

ALSO ON TAP: Florida is also holding primaries for its seats in the House after lawmakers revised the state’s congressional map this spring to increase the number of Republican-held seats.

That resulted in a scramble among the state’s congressional Democrats, as some chose to jump districts to keep their chances of staying in Congress alive, while others are choosing to battle it out in their home district against tougher odds.

Two of those Democrats are Reps. Jared Moskowitz, who is trying to fend off a democratic socialist challenger in a battleground district, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is running in a plurality Black district, frustrating some parts of the Democratic base, The Hill’s Julia Mueller reports.

And Trump’s endorsement power will be tested again as controversial Rep. Cory Mills tries to hold on to win the GOP nomination for another term despite a House Ethics Committee investigation into him, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil reports.

▪ The Hill: Democrats lead Republicans on economy heading into midterms.

3 Things to Know Today

The U.S. Navy has awarded a $22.9 billion contract to Raytheon to accelerate the production of Tomahawk missiles amid a munitions shortage as a result of the Iran war. Raytheon said the 7-year contract will allow the annual Tomahawk production to increase to more than 1,000 missiles, up from its current level of 60 per year.
A federal appeals court panel upheld an order disqualifying Sigal Chattah from serving in the top prosecutorial job in Nevada, ruling the administration’s efforts to sidestep Senate confirmation were The Justice Department plans to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, a spokesperson said.
Luigi Mangione’s state trial in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson has been postponed indefinitely after Mangione pleaded guilty to federal stalking charges on Friday. Mangione’s lawyers are seeking to have the state murder case thrown out on grounds of double jeopardy.

LEADING THE DAY

ECONOMIC FACEOFF: Iran and the United States now find themselves in a game of economic chicken, as the 60-day memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran officially expired on Monday.

With little indication that a permanent deal of any kind is on the horizon, The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Rachel Frazin report that the months-long conflict between the two countries increasingly focuses on the economic implications of slow shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and rising global energy prices.

The ceasefire deal struck in June was mostly symbolic, since both sides have repeatedly violated its terms by exchanging attacks, but the deadline’s lapse highlights the failure of the Trump administration to end the conflict and reach a deal curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Trump claimed Monday that the U.S. has “total control over the Strait” of Hormuz while indicating Iran is not likely to “make the kind of deal” that he feels is “necessary” to end the conflict in the region.

In an interview with Fox News, the president said he was “not in a hurry” to strike a deal with Iran.

He also lashed out at Oman, which has been working with Iran to set up new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for much of the world’s oil supply. The president cautioned Omani officials against interfering in U.S. negotiations with Iran.

“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s— out of them,” the president said in a phone interview, according to Fox News’s Trey Yingst.

▪ CNBC: Brent oil rises above $90 as Iran rules out interim deal extension.

▪ The Hill: Trump aircraft carrier demands may lead to Navy waiting game.

HALTED BORDER WALL: Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Rodney Scott announced he would halt construction of the border barrier in Texas’s Big Bend National Park following pushback from locals and bipartisan lawmakers.

“Last night I put a pause on all activity in that park as far as construction goes until I can get down there and do a personal evaluation,” Scott said.

CBP recently said it would no longer construct the planned 30-foot border wall and instead began construction on “limited” vehicle barriers.

But the concession did not quell the concerns of constituents, who feared the physical wall would disrupt the park’s beauty and wildlife, threaten indigenous sites and “significantly harm the local economy as tourism is a major economic driver for the region,” according to Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) letter last week to the Department of Homeland Security.

▪ CNN: The choices immigrant families are making under Trump’s crackdown.

▪ Pew Research Center: Refugee admissions dropping sharply in Trump’s second term.

TWICE DENIED: The Supreme Court once again denied Trump’s long-shot request to reconsider his appeal of writer E. Jean Carroll’s $5 million sexual abuse verdict.

In a one-sentence order, without comment or noted dissents, the high court denied the president’s request for the justices to rehear the case. The court similarly declined to take up his argument in June.

A jury awarded Carroll $5 million after finding Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation. Carroll accused Trump of sexually abusing her in a luxury department store in Manhattan in the 1990s, but Trump has denied her story.

Carroll also won an $83.3 million verdict over defamation claims against the president, but Trump’s appeal of that case is still pending.

▪ The Hill: Court asked to review Texas 10 commandments school requirement.

▪ The Hill: House Ethics probes California Democrat over sexual misconduct claims.

BOARD OF PEACE TALKS: Special envoy Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and representatives of Trump’s Board of Peace for several hours on Monday to try to make progress toward a deal for the future of Gaza.

Netanyahu appeared no closer to agreeing to the U.S.-proposed plan, which he rejected last week, insisting Hamas disarmament come before any reconstruction. U.S. officials also gave no signal publicly that Israel made any commitments to withdraw from the 60 percent of Gaza in which Israeli troops currently occupy, which is a major sticking point for Hamas.

Netanyahu, in a statement, called the talks “deep and constructive” and said Israel and the Board of Peace agreed to establish two working groups: one focused on disarmament and demilitarization and the second one focused on public health issues in Gaza.

Netanyahu reiterated, however, that Israel and the board agreed that demilitarization “should be prompt and completed before any reconstruction.”

▪ Reuters: New Syria-Iraq crude pipeline still years away, sources say.

▪ Fox News: Kushner says progress could come quite soon.

WHEN & WHERE

The president has no public events scheduled.
The House and Senate are out.

ZOOM IN

SHORTSIGHTED OR STRATEGIC? Trump’s move to rein in the joint military exercises with South Korea is being met with a condemnation from Democrats and concern from allies.

Trump told reporters Monday that he was turned off by South Korea not agreeing to help the U.S. denuclearize Iran, leading him to reduce the exercises. He said he recently spoke with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and asked if he would give the U.S. “a little hand” on Iran.

“He said, ‘No thanks,’ and I said, ‘Wait a minute. We have 39,000 soldiers over there, guarding you from [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un, your next-door neighbor, and you’re not going to help us on a very easy military operation in Iran. That’s strange,’” Trump said.

South Korea said in a statement responding to Trump’s move that it hopes to engage in talks with him “aimed at advancing peace and stability” on the Korean Peninsula. The military exercises, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield, started Monday and are expected to run through Aug. 27.

The Hill’s Mallory Wilson and Ellen Mitchell note this isn't the first time Trump has criticized the exercises, as he said he wanted to suspend them in 2018 following a meeting with Kim. But analysts told them Trump risks further alienating key allies and making the U.S. less safe by curtailing the war game.

Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said “watering down U.S.-South Korea military exercises is a risky move that lowers coalition readiness and puts U.S. forces at risk with no real tangible benefit to the United States.”

Lawmakers have also shared their frustration with the decision online. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services panel, said Russia and China are watching “how easily” Trump “abandons” the country’s allies, while Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) called the move “shortsighted.”

Still, others say now is not the time to panic yet as the U.S.-South Korean relationship has seemed mostly stable up to this point.

▪ The New York Times: Trump’s overture to Kim strains South Korean alliance.

▪ TIME: South Korea shift tests a key U.S. alliance.

ELSEWHERE

DISPUTING ‘DONROE’: Progressive House lawmakers and far-left Democratic candidates are traveling to Uruguay this week to challenge Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” in Latin America.

The lawmakers are participating in the PanAmerican Congress in Montevideo, Uruguay, set to take place Aug. 21-23, The Hill’s Laura Kelly has learned in an exclusive.

“We need to build a durable and lasting coalition of progressives that can take on the right-wing forces and answer them with the necessary call of the people,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), one of the lawmakers leading the delegation, said in a statement.

Other attendees include Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García (D-Ill.) and a group of progressive and Democratic socialist candidates who have gained attention for ousting traditional and centrist Democrats.

The group includes three members of the Democratic Socialists of America: Claire Valdez, who is running for the House in New York’s 7th District; Darializa Ávila Chevalier, who is running for New York’s 13th District; and Chris Rabb, who is running for Pennsylvania’s 3rd District. Also attending is progressive Democratic candidate Dr. Adam Hamawy, who is running for New Jersey’s 12th District.

The summit was founded in 2024 to bring together progressive leaders from across North and South America along with the Caribbean to combat the rise of far-right governments across the hemisphere. These conservative governments have found common cause with Trump’s hard-line policies against drug traffickers and illegal immigration but are criticized for suspending democratic practices and violating human rights.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will address the conference virtually. In a statement provided to The Hill, he said that the mission is to unite progressive voices across the hemisphere to combat “oligarchy, authoritarianism and greed.”

▪ The Associated Press: U.S. military expands campaign on land in Latin America.

▪ NPR: What the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ means for Latin America.

OPINION

We need to fix America’s illegal vape problem, former Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) writes in The Hill.
Democratic socialism will eventually fade, but the problems sparking its surge may not, Harlan Ullman writes in The Hill.

THE CLOSER

And finally … U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham exchanged text messages with someone he briefly believed to be White House chief of staff Susie Wiles but was actually an impersonator.

Politico first reported on the exchange, which ended after Burnham became suspicious. A source familiar with the situation told The Hill that the messages were of “no significance.”

When the messages were sent and what was discussed is unclear.

A White House official said the incident was unrelated to Wiles’s personal cellphone having been hacked last year.

Burnham succeeded Keir Starmer as prime minister last month after taking leadership of the Labour Party.