By Chris Stirewalt | Friday, August 28
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By Chris Stirewalt
Friday, August 28
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Illustration / Courtney Jones; Greg Nash; and Adobe Stock
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Trump finds an easier midterm foe in his own party
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There is a rhythm like the seasons to a midterm election year.
First, when there’s still frost on the ground, members of the party in power explain how this year, akshually, they’re not going to lose.
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Then come the torrents of spring, bringing panic and despair as it becomes clear they akshually will.
Then follows the summer heat of irrational exuberance from the party out of power.
Then, as fall approaches and primaries pass, party unity is restored and the true landscape is revealed.
Then comes the cold November rain: reversal, defeat and disappointment.
But after all that, there’s always a coda: bitter recriminations gusting in like winter wind under a drafty door. Lawmakers in the losing party quietly — or sometimes not so quietly — blame the president’s policies. And presidents — to their own varying degrees of bluntness — put the blame back on the lawmakers for failing to fully embrace their agenda.
During his presidency, Barack Obama and his team had a couple of opportunities to blame Democrats: the stinging rebukes of 2010 and 2014. In both cases, but particularly in the former, the message was that “purist” Democrats had abandoned the party in midterms because they were unwilling to accept compromises. The policies, most notably ObamaCare, weren’t the problem, he said, but rather “sanctimonious" progressives who didn’t know a good thing when they saw it.
That was very much like what the Clinton administration did after the thumping 1994 loss in Bill Clinton’s first term. Through strategic leaks and well-telegraphed talking points, the message was that old-line Democrats in the House had failed to embrace the New Democrat moderate mandate of 1992. The “triangulation” strategy of the next year was as much about steamrolling old-school progressives as it was about winning over moderates.
But sometimes, when things are particularly bad, the blame game happens before the loss. And for Republicans, this is definitely one of those times.
You can find lots of Republican lawmakers who will point out that the Trump administration's policies — the circular war-not-a-war with Iran, the foreign beef imports, the trade war with Canada, aggressive immigration raids, etc. — are not helping the party look its best to swing voters this year. This is gentle stuff, often attached to a reedy wish that, any day now, the ship of state will turn to fairer seas. And almost never is it phrased as a direct criticism of the president himself.
President Trump, you will not be surprised to hear, is being neither gentle nor indirect with his party.
The president’s main PAC has been piling up cash like crazy but only last week tapped into its more than $400 million war chest to help a candidate. But it was not tapped to beat a Democrat. Instead it was a rescue package for Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) to defeat her fellow Republican Rep. Ralph Norman (S.C.) in this week’s Senate primary runoff. This is in a state where Democrats haven’t gotten within 10 points of winning a Senate seat for decades.
Those Republicans grousing about the fact that the president hasn’t ponied up to try to save as many GOP seats as he can should remember that while Trump has a mixed record against Democrats — two presidential wins, one presidential loss and a 2018 midterm walloping — he is the greatest in the world at beating Republicans. Fighting his adopted party is what Trump does best.
In the wintertime, back when Republicans still believed that a combination of a strong economy and mid-decade gerrymandering would certainly save the Senate and might keep the House on-side, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles promised that the president was going to campaign for his party’s candidates “like it’s 2024 again.” The strategy was to deploy the president to motivate low-propensity MAGA voters who voted for Trump three times but aren’t moved to help the president’s party. It was a bold but not crazy strategy, at least not at the time before Trump’s job approval hit the skids post-Iran.
What is clear, though, is that Trump really agrees with those low-propensity voters. He likes himself, but doesn’t much care for the GOP.
This week, the president dredged up a 2025 social media post from one of his supporters excoriating Republicans for not doing more to support the Trump agenda. That will sound strange to most Americans who mostly see the Republican Party as an extension of Trump himself. But the argument goes that by refusing to do things like abolishing the Senate filibuster to jam through major legislation or by negotiating with Democrats over immigration enforcement funding, it’s actually congressional Republicans who are the problem.
This is a steroidal version of the argument that Obama and Clinton made in their times that voters are punishing recalcitrance. The difference, other than the f-bombs, is that Trump is doing it now instead of the second week of November.
Of course, what vulnerable Republicans need most of all right now is distance from an unpopular president. Democrats are massively motivated and core Republican voters are dispirited not because of Senate procedural rules but because of Iran and high prices. To survive in swing states and districts, Republicans need room to maneuver and, most of all, to get Trump off the front page for a while instead of, you know, renaming parts of the Great Lakes.
If endangered Republicans don’t like that, they’d better strap in, because it only gets worse from here. The Atlantic got a look at the strategy for how Trump plans to spend whatever funds he will share from his MAGA war chest. He’s going with more cowbell: huge ad buys praising himself for his accomplishments. It’s a very Trumpy answer, but maybe one with some advantages. If there really are dispirited hardcore MAGA voters, perhaps being reminded of the good old days of 2024 will lighten the mood and get them voting.
Will that be worth the downside of putting Trump in swing voters’ living rooms even more than he already is? Unlikely.
Republicans will gather in Dallas next month for the party’s first-ever midterm convention, which sounds like it’s going to be a two-day infomercial for MAGA: Democrats are communists so come join us in the new Golden Age. One suspects that it will be a lot of preaching to the choir as the congregation heads for the aisles.
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Change from last week: ↑ 1.2 points (-25.2 points)
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Change from one month ago: ↑ 4.8 points (-30.2 points)
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[Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos 33 percent approve - 65 percent disapprove; American Research Group 30 percent approve - 66 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights 38 percent approve - 61 percent disapprove; Emerson College 40 percent approve - 56 percent disapprove; Marquette Law School 40 percent approve - 60 percent disapprove]
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Democratic: 48.2 percent
Republican: 41.6 percent
Advantage: D + 6.6 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 0.2 points (D +6.4 points)
Change from one month ago: ↓ 2.6 points (D +9.2 points)
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[Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos 41 percent Democratic - 35 percent Republican; Echelon Insights 50 percent Democratic - 44 percent Republican; Emerson College 51 percent Democratic - 43 percent Republican; Marquette Law School 51 percent Democratic - 45 percent Republican; Quinnipiac University 48 percent Democratic - 41 percent Republican]
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Harper's Magazine: “On August 5, 2013, a man and a woman ate a burger. Not just any burger: a world-historical burger, made from cattle cells grown in a lab by Mark Post, a professor of vascular physiology at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. The burger had taken two years to produce and cost $330,000, money furnished by the Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Now it was being tasted in public for the first time at Riverside Studios in London, at an event attended by two hundred members of the press and livestreamed to thousands. … The event—the theatrical reveal, the PR spectacle—triggered a kind of gold rush. One hundred and forty companies sprang up in six continents, trying to replicate what Post had done with beef across a range of other species: chicken, pork, fish, even quail. Investment to the tune of $3 billion flooded into the sector. … And yet, despite the frenzy, the meat itself never arrived.”
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The court weighs in, money issues ensue and Senate hopefuls change key
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Judge halts Ohio proof-of-citizenship requirement for voters and drivers: The Washington Post: “A federal judge temporarily blocked Ohio from requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote at motor vehicle offices, a setback for conservative efforts to tighten voter registration rules ahead of the November midterms. Ohio’s law requiring proof of citizenship at Bureau of Motor Vehicles’ offices conflicts with the federal National Voter Registration Act, the court said. A preliminary injunction was granted on Tuesday. The Ohio rules were challenged by Red Wine & Blue, a liberal activist group centered on suburban women, and the Ohio Alliance for Retired Americans. President Donald Trump has tried unsuccessfully to impose national rules requiring voters to show proof of citizenship, although there is little evidence of widespread noncitizen voting.”
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Massachusetts judge challenges Trump’s mail-in voting crackdown: Axios: “A Massachusetts judge ruled Tuesday that the Trump administration violated a nationwide injunction by finalizing a rule that would significantly overhaul mail voting if allowed to take effect. The order allows the Trump administration to publish the rule Wednesday, but the U.S. Postal Service remains barred from making the dramatic changes to mail-in ballots. ‘Defendants cannot contend that they misunderstood the scope of the court's order,’ U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani wrote in a five-page filing Tuesday afternoon. ‘Accordingly, despite the Defendants' protestations that "[t]he United States takes its obligation to comply with court orders very seriously," the court finds that Defendants violated the preliminary injunction in this case.’ … The Trump administration argued in an Aug. 25 filing that publishing the new rule did not violate the nationwide injunction because the rule's language specifically says the USPS won't implement the rule while the injunction is in place. Therefore, merely publishing the rule doesn't violate Talwani's order.”
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A potential court ruling could help Dems out in their cash issue: Semafor: “Democrats got some good news when the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that political parties and joint fundraising committees do not qualify for the candidate rate for political spending, which is lower than what outside groups have to pay. If the ruling stands — still a big ‘if’ — it would benefit Democrats. Democratic candidates are often outraising Republicans in key races, and those candidates would receive more efficient ad spending rates than political parties. Republicans will appeal to the Supreme Court; National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said, ‘This is the first word, not the last.’ But Democrats are celebrating the decision, which blunts some of the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year allowing more coordinated spending between parties and candidates.”
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Michigan GOP Senate campaign tells AIPAC to back off: Axios: “Allies of Mike Rogers, Michigan’s GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate, have asked AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee] not to advertise on his behalf, triggering a rupture with the powerful but polarizing pro-Israel group. Rogers spoke with AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles last week. The next day, AIPAC shelved an already-cut video ad targeting Rogers' Democratic rival, outspoken Israel critic Abdul El-Sayed. The extraordinary tension underscores how far AIPAC's political standing has fallen amid voters' anger over the war in Gaza. Even Rogers — a staunchly pro-Israel Republican — fears the group's public support could be a liability in the Nov. 3 election. The move by Rogers' team angered AIPAC officials, who had spent more than $30 million to try to defeat El-Sayed in the Democratic primary and prepared to spend millions more to help elect Rogers, according to people familiar with the conversations. El-Sayed made AIPAC a centerpiece of his successful primary campaign, using the group’s spending against him to portray Democratic opponent Haley Stevens as beholden to the pro-Israel lobby.”
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Iowa poll shows GOP ahead for Senate, behind for governor: The Hill: “The Democratic and Republican candidates in the Iowa Senate and gubernatorial races are locked in tight battles, a new survey shows. The poll, which Suffolk University in Boston conducted Aug. 20-23, found that 45 percent of 500 respondents backed GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race, while 41 percent supported Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. In the governor’s race, state Auditor Rob Sand (D) leads with 48 percent support over Republican businessman Zach Lahn’s 44 percent. Lahn has never held elected office. The advantages for Hinson and Sand were within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.”
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Turek to Kamala: Thanks, but no thanks: The Hill: “Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek on Wednesday shot down the idea of former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigning for him. When pressed by a reporter at a Wednesday event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, about the topic of working with Harris during his campaign, Turek — a state representative and two-time Paralympic basketball gold medalist with a history of winning in conservative areas — simply responded, ‘No.’ Turek, who clinched his Senate nomination in early June, is the latest to join other red-state candidates who have attempted to distance themselves from the former vice president. His fellow Iowa Democrat, gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, also pushed back against the idea of Harris campaigning for him — adding that he believes she shouldn’t pursue a presidential run in 2028.”
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Paxton trails for Senate as the rest of Texas GOP surges ahead: Texas Public Opinion Research: “The poll finds Democrat James Talarico (48%) leading Republican Ken Paxton (42%) by six points in the U.S. Senate race. Meanwhile, Republican Greg Abbott (49%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (42%) by seven points in the Governor’s race. In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by three points (44% to 41%).”
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Paxton shuns donors, takes pitchfork to AI: The Hill: “Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) unveiled a plan Monday to place restrictions on data centers if elected to the U.S. Senate, becoming the latest GOP candidate to take a stronger stance against the controversial AI infrastructure. Paxton laid out his four-point plan, vowing to “fiercely advocate” for Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) state-level data center plan and sponsor or back various federal legislation. This includes legislation that would bar the use of Chinese technology to power data centers and would hold data center developers criminally liable if their infrastructure ‘empowers AI chatbots that undermine children’s safety.’ He also said he would co-sponsor the Decentralized Access to Technology Alternatives Act, a bill from Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) that would exempt new, off-grid electricity providers from certain federal regulations in an effort to prevent data centers from raising consumer electricity costs.”
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Maryland judge draws the line at gerrymandering — CBS News
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GOP propping up Green Party to help secure Pennsylvania House seats — Punchbowl News
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West Virginia’s Republican governor and senator take feud public — MetroNews
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Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) might lose his gubernatorial primary to a former CVS health rep excited about Medicaid — The Hill
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Trump’s endorsement nudged Mike Mazzei into an Oklahoma front-runner — The Hill
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“Poetry is not sexual misconduct."
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— Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) defending himself in a letter to House colleagues after an ethics report citing his bizarre behavior toward a female staffer forced him out of his reelection bid.
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“Some on his staff have said, ‘No, it's really like you’re co-president.’ … Because the president and I speak all the time.”
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— Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) answering a question about whether Trump functions as the real Speaker of the House.
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“My daddy was a Republican, my mama was a Democrat, and I'm a hypocrite!”
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WMUR: “A Dalton [N.H.] man was arrested Tuesday after he allegedly stole a fire truck while his house was burning to the ground. Fire officials said they were called to the home in the area of Faraway Road and Mountain Road early Tuesday morning. Firefighters from multiple agencies, along with New Hampshire State Police, responded to the fire. Officials said the resident of the home, identified as Nestor Roman, 30, was not in the building at the time of the fire, but he was accused of jumping into a Whitefield fire engine and driving away. State police said that while he was driving the vehicle, Roman struck another Whitefield fire engine, drove over water supply lines and narrowly missed three firefighters. Police said Roman stopped at a home a couple of miles down the road and tried to enter the back of the residence. He was arrested by state police troopers.”
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Chris Stirewalt is political editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
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