Decision Desk HQ called the big Michigan race this morning! Progressive challenger Abdul El-Sayed is projected to beat Rep. Haley Stevens (D) in the hard-fought, nationally watched Michigan Democratic Senate primary.
Why this is a big deal: This race put the brewing fight within the Democratic Party over the direction of the party in 2026 and 2028 on public display. Democratic establishment had backed Stevens over El-Sayed, making this outcome a huge blow to party leadership. Stevens ran as a moderate Democrat, while El-Sayed challenged her by leaning into a progressive, populist message. In this race, the bold message won.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) backed El-Sayed, while outgoing Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) endorsed Stevens.
What happens now?: El-Sayed will face former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in November in a race that nonpartisan election predictor Cool Political Report rates as a “toss-up.” Recent polling suggests El-Sayed may have a tougher time beating Rogers in a general election.
💬 Follow today’s live blog
✋ Five takeaways from the hard-fought race
REACTIONS TO EL-SAYED’S WIN:
The governor of Michigan endorsed the winner: Whitmer quickly endorsed El-Sayed this morning after the race was called.
Trump appears to be thrilled El-Sayed won: “Great news for the Republican Party. El-Sayed, a Communist loser who hates Jews and Israel, is the projected winner in his race with the Socialist,” Trump posted on social media. 🔎 Read Trump’s full post
GET TO KNOW ABDUL EY-SAYED:
The Hill’s campaign team asked El-Sayed some fun questions last month to get to know him, like what he eats while on the campaign trail.
His favorite snack while campaigning is Quest protein chips because “the macros are immaculate.” And his go-to caffeine source is a triple espresso.
Oh, and he said he and his wife have been watching is “The Bear.”
🔎 The full Q&A is worth reading
A WARNING SIGN LURKING IN THE ECONOMY:
The bond market hit a two-decade high Friday and NOTUS’s Jeff Stein writes that “the bond market has looked more than a little queasy. The deterioration of arguably the most critical financial asset in the world now risks rippling through the broader U.S. economy in dangerous and unpredictable ways — and possibly right before the 2026 midterm elections.”
Read more: ‘The Key Economic Warning Sign That Could Upend the Midterms’
^ *Nervous laugh*: Jeff Stein’s colleague, Igor Bobic, pointed out that it’s “always a bad sign when [Stein] has to interrupt his book leave to write about a scary economic indicator.”
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